SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY RICE'S VISIT TO THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 000420

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY RICE'S VISIT TO THE
CZECH REPUBLIC

Classified By: DCM Mary Thompson-Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) + (d)


1. (C) Madam Secretary, Embassy Prague looks forward to
welcoming you to the Czech Republic. Your visit is much
anticipated by Prime Minister Topolanek and his government as
an important signal of our strong transatlantic partnership.
The signing of the Ballistic Missile Defense Agreement, which
will be the highlight of your visit, will cement our close
ties with the Czechs. Three other issues are likely to
dominate your private and public discussions: Czech entry
into the Visa Waiver Program, the U.S.-EU agenda for the
Czech EU Presidency in 2009, and Czech Republic's
contributions to global democracy and the war on terror.
These three themes illustrate the Czech Republic,s
impressive progress since the Velvet Revolution, and they set
the stage for an even closer collaboration on President
Bush,s key priorities: strengthening security and advancing
freedom and democracy around the world.

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Domestic context
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2. (C) Nearly 19 years after the 1989 Velvet Revolution, the
Czech Republic today is a prosperous market economy, a stable
democracy, and a committed American ally. Accession to the
European Union in 2004, like accession to NATO in 1999, has
solidified and accelerated the transition away from the
country's communist past. The economy today is very strong
and one of Europe's fastest growing, with 6 percent GDP
growth in the past three years, relatively low inflation, and
declining unemployment. Strong exports and continued healthy
inflows of foreign investment drive the economy.


3. (C) Elections in June 2006 produced a deadlock, with the
200-seat Chamber of Deputies split evenly between left and
right. The country was without a confirmed government for
seven months while the politicians sorted out a compromise.
In January 2007, PM Topolanek won a vote of confidence with
the
help of two defectors from the opposition. These two
defectors and two others who have left the ranks of the
opposition in 2008 have created an incredibly charged
political atmosphere, where the coalition and opposition
rarely cooperate in the parliament.


4. (C) Topolanek heads the center-right Civic Democrats (ODS)
and governs together with the smaller Christian Democrats and
the Czech Greens. Both because it lacks a reliable majority
in Parliament and because of internal conflicts among
coalition partners -- particularly involving the Greens --
the Topolanek government has recently had to scale back its
ambitions, especially with regard to health care and social
system reforms. Most observers expect the current
three-party coalition to remain in power at least through the
Czech EU Presidency in 2009.

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U.S.-Czech Relations
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5. (C) Our two countries enjoy excellent relations. We have
worked well with both of the main parties to pursue common
goals. The country is active within NATO and the EU, and
generally supportive of U.S. policies. This is particularly
the case regarding democracy promotion. While much of the
Czech support for democracy and freedom is rightfully
associated with former President Vaclav Havel, in fact the
Czech commitment to this agenda has continued after Havel
left office. The Czech MFA, for example, has a special unit
designed to promote transformational diplomacy in countries
that are not yet fully free. The Czechs have been our
strongest partners in Europe on Cuba, and active supporters
of the democratic opposition in Cuba. Likewise in Belarus,
Burma, Iraq and other countries in transition, the Czech
government and NGOs work to support peaceful transformation
and pass along the lessons learned from their own history.
Since 1995, Prague has been home to the U.S.-funded Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, which you will have an opportunity
to visit.


6. (C) The Czechs remain actively engaged supporting U.S. and
NATO-led coalitions. They currently have over 350 troops in
Afghanistan, where they lead a PRT in Logar Province. They
also have over 400 troops in Kosovo and a small group of
trainers in Iraq. The Czechs have recently proposed
deploying an elite SOF unit to Afghanistan under Operation
Enduring Freedom command. Although this deployment is likely
to be delayed, the Czechs have already deployed this unit on
two separate occasions in 2004 and 2006. The Czechs recently
suffered some casualties in Afghanistan, which have so far

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been accepted by the Czech public as a necessary sacrifice
that the Czech Republic must make as a NATO ally.

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Missile Defense
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7. (C) The signing ceremony of the Ballistic Missile Defense
Agreement (BMDA) will be the highlight of your visit and the
culmination of nearly 18 months of intense negotiations,
during which the Czechs have proven repeatedly their
commitment to the partnership with the United States and the
NATO alliance. During the negotiations, the Czechs moved
quickly to conclude the BMDA. The SOFA is nearly complete,
with only one issue outstanding -- taxes on defense
contractors. If this final matter is not resolved by the
time of your visit, you should urge Topolanek to work with us
to find a compromise soon.


8. (C) Topolanek,s government has faced criticism from some
MD-opponents who have argued that the Czechs should have
adopted a tougher negotiating position like Poland.
Topolanek, who is a confirmed transatlanticist and who sees
MD as a natural next step in the partnership between our two
countries, has responded by pointing to the Czech Republic,s
responsibilities as a NATO and U.S. ally. He also sees MD as
an opportunity to expand science and technology, as well as
economic, cooperation with the United States, and he will
likely raise this point with you.


9. (C) Topolanek has taken a great political risk in pursuing
the MD negotiations in the face of overwhelming public
opposition to the project. If the parliament fails to ratify
the MD agreements, Topolanek could lose the premiership. The
politics of MD in the Czech Republic are complicated:
Topolanek's ODS strongly supports; the small Christian
Democrats are less solid, but most are behind the proposal;
the Green party is utterly divided. On the other side of the
political spectrum, the Communists are naturally strongly
against. The leadership of the largest opposition party, the
Social Democrats, has used its anti-MD stance to boost its
popularity in advance of the fall regional and senate
election. The publicity-hungry leader of the Social
Democrats, Jiri Paroubek, even took the unusual step of
writing you an open letter in which he urged the United
States to delay the signing of the MD agreements due to the
strong public opposition to this initiative. However, we
have indications that some in his party would support MD if
they were allowed to vote their conscience.


10. (C) Polls show that 60-70 percent of the public is
opposed to MD. These disappointing poll results, however,
are misleading because they generally do not reflect other
aspects of the public,s views on MD: 1) Czechs want to be
protected from the ballistic missile threat; and 2) they rank
MD far behind their other concerns, which are predictably
dominated by pocketbook issues. Unfortunately, the Czech
government,s effort to communicate the reasons for the radar
is generally considered as a failure. The anti-MD groups --
an amalgam of pacifist, humanist, and communist elements --
have mounted an active PR campaign which, according to recent
reports in the Czech media, may be funded by Russia. The
embassy,s priority has been to provide as much information
as possible to the Czech public and especially the
parliament. We have successfully refuted misinformation
related to the health and environmental impacts of the radar.


11. (C) Given the lack of a stable parliamentary majority for
the coalition, we have been particularly focused on outreach
with the parliament. The strong MD language in the Bucharest
NATO Summit communique helped some Christian Democrats and
Greens overcome their doubts, but a few individuals remain
convinced that this is a purely bilateral project that will
somehow hurt NATO. In a situation where every vote will
count during the ratification in the parliament, winning
these individuals remains a priority. You will have an
opportunity to meet with key parliamentarians and senators
during your visit. The group will be a mix of supporters,
skeptics, and those who are wavering. The meeting will be a
chance for you to present an overview of how MD fits into the
broader U.S. view of transatlantic security arrangements,
affirm U.S. commitment to a European MD site, discuss
relations with Russia, and answer questions. Among the points
to stress with this group:
-- the urgency of the threat to the U.S. and Europe;
-- commitment to linking the U.S. MD system with NATO;
-- commitment to working with Russia to address its concerns,
but with three important caveats: 1) Russia will not have a
veto; 2) United States will not reach an agreement with
Russia on observers and other transparency measures without
Czech approval; and 3) Russia will not have a permanent

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presence at the radar site.


12. (C) Russia's position on the MD radar has been a
prominent facet of the debate here. Russian opposition to MD
and the resulting threats to the Czech Republic and Poland
were used by many pro-radar Czechs, including Topolanek and
his Civic Democrats, as justifications for their support of
the radar and of tying the Czech Republic even more closely
to its American ally. However, the neuralgic Czech public
reaction to the notion of Russian observers being present at
the radar site demonstrated that these anti-Russian
sentiments could turn against us at any point when the Czechs
would believe that the United States is negotiating "o nas
bez nas" ("about us, without us"). With the 40th anniversary
of the Warsaw Pact invasion approaching, the Czech
anti-Russian sensitivities will be even more pronounced.

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Visa Waiver
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13. (C) The Czechs are tremendously appreciative of President
Bush,s strong support for last August,s visa waiver reform
legislation that could make their entry into the Visa Waiver
Program (VWP) a reality later this year. The visa
requirement has often been at the top of the Czechs,
bilateral agenda and the one irritant in our otherwise
positive relationship. If the Department of Homeland
Security (DHS) can exercise its authority under the law to
waive the requirement that a country have less than a three
percent visa refusal rate, the Czechs should be able to
qualify with their official visa refusal rate well below the
ten percent threshold. This February, the Czechs signed a
security memorandum of understanding (MOU) with DHS in the
face of serious opposition from Brussels. Their leadership
gave the other visa waiver aspirants the courage to follow
suit.


14. (C) This is a success story in the making, but several
tasks remain. We have reached agreement on one of the two
implementing arrangements called for by the DHS MOU, and
negotiations on the other should begin soon. You should urge
the Czechs to continue working with DHS to complete the
negotiations by the end of the summer. For its part, DHS
must still stand up its Electronic System for Travel
Authorization (ESTA) (slated to go live in early August),and
certify to Congress that it is inspecting 97 percent of
travelers who exit the United States by air. Many Czechs are
aware that once these pieces fall into place, you must
formally recommend to DHS that it include the Czech Republic
(and other eligible countries) in the Visa Waiver Program.
You will probably face polite pressure for some indication of
when you will do this, with a strong desire on the part of
the Czechs to see this happen on October 28, the Czech
National Day. Given the many variables in making visa waiver
happen, we have not been more specific than &late autumn.8
We have also been careful to stress that visa waiver and
missile defense are separate issues and that the success of
one initiative is unrelated to the success of the other. The
Czech public, however, has always connected the two given
that these initiatives have advanced roughly in the same time
frame.

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Europe, Energy, and Middle East
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15. (C) The Czech government is increasingly focused on their
first EU Presidency, during the first half of 2009. Under
the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Alexandr (Sasha)
Vondra, former Czech Ambassador to Washington, the Czechs
have been preparing their agenda, which will have the
overarching theme "Europe Without Borders." Their
Presidency, however, has already become tainted by the
government,s less than supportive stance on the Lisbon
Treaty. While Topolanek has stated that he would send the
Treaty to the parliament for ratification, he is under
pressure to delay ratification from his own Civic Democratic
Party, which has a strong Euro-skeptical wing.


16. (C) Among their EU Presidency priorities will be energy
security, a key focus for PM Topolanek. The Czechs are very
concerned about energy security and the reliability of
Russian supplies. The Czech Republic gets all of its gas,
and 70 percent of its oil, from Russia. They would like to
see the EU, NATO, and the United States be more engaged on
this question. During his February 2008 visit to Washington,
PM Topolanek raised energy security with the Vice President,
specifically, his concerns about Russia,s efforts to acquire
key pipelines in Europe.


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17. (C) PM Topolanek may also wish to discuss the Middle
East, having recently met with Salam Fayad. He will want to
hear from you how the Czechs can be helpful during their EU
presidency. In this context, Topolanek may mention their
preliminary plans to host an EU-Israel summit next spring.
We expect that Topolanek will also ask about Iran, in part
because Iran is usually mentioned as the source of the threat
against which the European MD site is supposed to protect.

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Boosting Relations With a Solid Partner
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18. (C) Your visit to Prague is timed perfectly to give a
boost to the Topolanek government,s effort to secure
ratification of the MD agreements and to demonstrate that the
United States values the Czech Republic as a friend and
partner. During PM Topolanek,s White House meeting in
February, President Bush stated: "we,re determined to make
the year 2008 a strong chapter in our relationship." Madam
Secretary, your visit will help make President Bush,s words
a reality. We look forward to welcoming you in Prague.
Graber