REGIONAL INTEGRATION: "CONVERGING SOVEREIGNTIES"

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT OF SPAIN 000397 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON TD SUBJECT: REGIONAL INTEGRATION: "CONVERGING SOVEREIGNTIES" REF: (A) PORT OF SPAIN 378 (B) PORT OF SPAIN 388 Classified By: DCM Len Kusnitz; Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The details of what Caribbean political integration would look like remain vague, based on a reading of the closely-held draft study referred to by regional leaders when they met here on August 14. The study is still in draft form, being rewritten, not fully coherent and quite vague, but it seems to be pointing the way toward a framework that mixes attributes of the EU and the failed West Indies Federation. If the spirit of this draft remains intact in the final document, due by year's end, the catchword for selling integration will be "converging sovereignties" -- with countries constitutionally demarking areas for collective decision making and enforcement. End summary. Political Integration Study -------------- ¶2. (C) When Prime Minister Manning and three colleagues announced August 14 their regional integration plan, reference was made to a study to be completed by year's end on the modalities to achieve integration. A non-government source has now passed us a draft version of the political portion of this study, still undergoing revision, asking it be closely held. As such, we ask that Embassies/Washington not/not share information on the study draft outside the USG. ¶3. (C) Entitled "Proposal for a New Political Configuration for Interested East/South Caribbean States: Draft for Governmental Consideration," the draft is more vague than might be expected given Manning's post-August 14 activities on behalf of integration. Further details may come with study revisions. We also have been told that there may be other documents (including, according to one source, an MOU in addition to the Joint Declaration) that we have still not seen. Certainly, it would be logical at a minimum to expect that there is an economic integration paper (our study copy is listed as "Appendix II," a possible hint that "Appendix I" may cover economic integration). A Work in Progress -------------- ¶4. (C) Even as Manning jets around the region to sell the August 14 plan, the integration effort remains a sensitive work in progress. This, along with what critics charge is a penchant for secrecy and Parliament being out of session, may explain why no integration documents have yet been publicly released. The MFA has been similarly closed-mouthed on how integration talks are going, one official who traveled with Manning on his latest sojourn simply telling us that talks have been "nice." Perhaps reflecting similar MFA conversations, two third country diplomats asserted to us that the Foreign Ministry is not heavily involved in Manning's effort, sometimes being altogether cut out of leaders meetings. We have no confirmation of this, though our MFA contact seemed genuinely fuzzy on some details. ¶5. (C) The draft study advances the notion of giving up some sovereignty, while remaining sovereign. At least in this study version, it does not -- to our eye -- fully square this circle, though the GOTT seems to have in mind something between the EU model and the former West Indies Federation. The study repeatedly refers to the concept of "converging sovereignties" and the need for a common "security space." The latter point fits well with Manning's intent to ramp-up regional security cooperation and further suggests (along with his past words on constitutional reform - ref b) that the T&T Prime Minister has a vision in mind as he moves forward. Study Specifics -------------- ¶6. (C) The draft study identifies the objective of the integration push as "a transition from the existing loose cooperation system of the CARICOM states' arrangements for managing cooperation and joint action, to an institutional arrangement that would permit a convergence of sovereignties, and therefore a linkage of decision-making and decision-implementation among interested countries...To this end, it is necessary to design a form of political governance that would satisfy the dual requirements of (i) a degree of national autonomy matching the island-character of the existing states, and (ii) political-economic integration for ensuring efficient governance and management of a common economic and security space which these islands would constitute." ¶7. (C) After reviewing why integration is desirable (e.g., economies of scale, globalization, increasing weight in international affairs),the study states that any new "political governance system" would have to ensure that decisions could be made promptly and effectively, that others in the international system could be guaranteed that these decisions would "stick" for all integrated states, that decisions taken could be quickly and, as needed, turned into legislation and that an "integrated judicial process" would exist to help enforce such laws. Notable on the judicial point is the existence of the Caribbean Court of Justice. Though its headquarters is in Port of Spain, and the GOTT pays many of its costs, Parliament here has so far refused to make it the court of final resort, still maintaining the Privy Council model. ¶8. (C) In a subsection entitled "The Proposal," the draft concludes that the envisioned economic and security space "would be recognized in international law as a sovereign and cohesive entity..." The members of this entity, though, would maintain their "autonomy and political/cultural identity." The areas where sovereign characteristics would be at least somewhat yielded would be based "on a clear demarcation of constitutionally defined areas for collective decision-making." Comment: Huh? -------------- ¶9. (C) The current draft study strikes us as ambiguous and unclear, perhaps a result of the authors' difficulty in tackling an immense topic. Equally plausible, and not at variance with the difficulty argument, is that vagueness at this point is what is needed. The calculation could be that details will come later, once it is clear what the market will bear and who will sign on. How the T&T public will react when the integration documents are finally released, and how far Manning's "coalition of the willing" might ultimately advance, remains to be seen. AUSTIN