COP PARTY PLANS TO STAY VIABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT OF SPAIN 000106

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CAR AND INR/IAA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI TD
SUBJECT: COP PARTY PLANS TO STAY VIABLE

Classified By: DCM Len Kusnitz, Reason 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador met with Congress of the
People (COP) Winston Dookeran February 27 in a discussion
that focused on the opposition leader's efforts to keep his
party relevant despite it failing to secure seats in last
November's parliamentary vote. Dookeran, who has been under
some criticism from party regulars who feel adrift, is
targeting a limited number of seats in the upcoming local
elections as a way to regain momentum. The COP head also has
hopes of promoting pan-Caribbean advances on good governance.
End summary.

COP Future
--------------


2. (C) COP leader Winston Dookeran invited the Ambassador,
accompanied by PolOff, to lunch February 27 to provide an
update on his party's efforts to remain relevant despite
winning no seats in last November's parliamentary elections.
Though it made a respectable showing, and garnered 148,000
votes, the COP was unable to break through in any PNM or UNC
strongholds. Since then, the COP has suffered from some
defections and in-fighting, and also a sense of drift,
exacerbated by Dookeran's recent extended trip to Canada
where he visited relatives and did some writing.


3. (C) After exchanging pleasantries, Dookeran informed the
Ambassador that the COP intends to contest the upcoming local
elections (date this year still TBD) and will not join in an
opposition alliance with the UNC. Perhaps stung by
criticisms that the COP should have cooperated with the UNC
in the parliamentary vote, Dookeran stated that the COP will
not run a candidate for all 127 seats. Rather, it will focus
on approximately 40 seats in the hopes of winning 20. To
contest all 127 seats and only win 20, he explained, would be
viewed as a defeat. Instead, winning half the seats it
contests would be taken by the general public as a victory.


4. (C) The COP intends to target PNM areas where they were
competitive in the 2007 general election. In all likelihood,
the party will not contest UNC-held seats. This would not be
an alliance, Dookeran underscored, since as long as the UNC's
current leadership (former PM Basdeo Panday) remains in
place, a meeting of minds will not be possible. Dookeran
said he has been able to maintain this position despite some
senior members of the COP supporting an electoral alliance.


5. (C) Turning to how he intends the COP to run in the
upcoming race, the political leader said his party would
focus on grass roots organizing. Dookeran felt confident the
COP would be able to maintain the support of a significant
number of those who backed it last November, despite the
media now dismissing the party as irrelevant. To counter
this perception, the COP has developed a public awareness
campaign, to include both an internet campaign and
educational outreach program. Dookeran concluded that, based
on the survival strategy he outlined, the current
administration's poor performance (e.g. crime, scarcity of
affordable food, inflation),and a successful showing in
local government elections, the COP will be well positioned
for general elections in four to five years.

Broad Trends
--------------


6. (C) Dookeran then commented on what he sees as broader
trends in the Caribbean and beyond. He suggested that
opposition wins in the region, and the success of the Obama
campaign in the U.S., are indicative of a strong wave of
sentiment in favor of political change. The COP seeks to
both ride this wave here and be the local agent of change
(the COP made a similar argument before the general
election). Continuing on this thought, he added that some
COP supporters question the method of selecting the party's
leadership. As such, Dookeran has been researching the U.S.
primary election and Electoral College systems as alternative
methods of choosing a political leader.

A Proactive Caribbean
--------------


7. (C) An academic, Dookeran said he had written a document
detailing the need for the small islands to be proactive in
shaping global issues. He feels that due to poor governance,
TT and similar countries have been unable to handle regional
issues like crime, diversification of the economy, and
infrastructure improvements. In order to help island
countries change their behavior, Dookeran is considering
starting an advisory organization.

Comment: Threading the Needle
--------------


8. (C) Dookeran has a difficult task ahead of him to keep
the COP from fading from the scene due to its failure to
secure any parliamentary seats last November. The history of
third party movements that get shut out of parliament does
not augur well for his effort. Internal party pressures and
criticism of his leadership style -- both much in the news
recently -- also suggest Dookeran is fighting on two fronts.
He has to keep persons from leaving his movement and
returning (largely) to the UNC even while trying to prepare
the party for local elections. Though he shies away from
calling it an alliance, his plan to only contest PNM local
seats is a risky half-way house designed to keep his party
together while not having it be swallowed up by the UNC.
Whether he can thread this needle remains unclear.

AUSTIN