HAITI: LAVALAS PROTESTORS CALL FOR ARISTIDE'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 001749 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/EX, WHA/CAR, S/CRS, INR/IAA, AND DS/IP/WHA DEPT ALSO FOR INL (KEVIN BROWN AND MEAGAN MCBRIDE) WHA/EX PLEASE PASS TO USOAS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR HA SUBJECT: HAITI: LAVALAS PROTESTORS CALL FOR ARISTIDE'S RETURN REF: A. STATE 1016 ¶B. STATE 1677 ¶C. STATE 1560 ¶D. STATE 1463 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas C. Tighe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Approximately 4,000 Haitians marched peacefully in the streets of Port-au-Prince December 16 to call for the return of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. The Executive Committee of Aristide's Fanmi Lavalas (FL) party organized the demonstration, which featured speeches by Lavalas militants sharply criticizing President Rene Preval for failing to facilitate the return of Aristide. Some FL leaders announced their plan to approach the administration of President-elect Obama in the hope that the new administration would help secure the former president's return. The moderate wing of the party largely boycotted the march and has decided not to propose its own slate of candidates for the upcoming senatorial elections. End summary. THOUSANDS MARCH IN SUPPORT OF ARISTIDE -------------- ¶2. (C) A march on December 16 to commemorate the eighteenth anniversary of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's first election drew some 4,000 participants to the streets in a mostly peaceful demonstration of support for the former president's return. Popular organization leader Rene Civil and former FL Deputy Millien Romage addressed the growing crowd as it moved from Aristide's residence to the Aristide Foundation and then through the Delmas and Cite Soleil areas before arriving at the Champ de Mars, near the National Palace. A separate group of approximately 300 persons gathered at Aristide's former church, St Jean Bosco, and joined the larger crowd as it passed, according to an Embassy observer. The march was approximately the same size as one held July 15 to commemorate Aristide's birthday (ref A),and is widely seen as an attempt to demonstrate FL's grassroots support in advance of the upcoming senatorial elections (ref B). Lavalas Deputy Sorel Francois (West) attended the rally and told Poloff December 18 that many protesters came from the impoverished neighborhoods of Belair and Cite Soleil. He added that in Lavalas circles, leaders are considering 
mounting more frequent demonstrations and that there is increased speculation that Aristide will move to Venezuela, perhaps ''very soon.'' ¶3. (C) Haitian National Police (HNP) and MINUSTAH peacekeepers were deployed in significant number, but there were only isolated scuffles between demonstrators and the HNP. In one incident, according to several press reports, HNP officers fired warning shots to disperse a small group of demonstrators, one of whom had thrown rocks at and injured an officer. (Note: RSO sources heard one shot fired; subsequent checks revealed that it was fired by police as a warning shot. End note.) There were also reports of broken windshields, petty theft, and stolen motorcycles. One press report indicated that two HNP officers were lightly injured by bottles thrown by protesters. SHARP CRITICISM OF PREVAL -------------- ¶4. (C) The demonstrators focused their frustration on President Rene Preval to a greater extent than in previous marches, blaming him for the high cost of living and failing to facilitate the return of former president Aristide. In a press conference before the marches began, FL activists criticized Preval for failing to honor what they said was an agreement for Preval to support Aristide's return in exchange for Lavalas support for Preval and his Lespwa coalition in the 2006 elections. Some marchers chanted ''We will not vote for Lespwa anymore,'' according to a press report and FL Deputy Francois told Poloff that many of the march participants directed their anger at Preval. Chamber of Deputies President Eric Jean-Jacques (Lespwa, West) was present for part of the march, a possible sign that Lavalas PORT AU PR 00001749 002 OF 003 may be gathering some mainstream support. ¶5. (C) Many Lavalas leaders are conducting an active campaign to imply that Barack Obama's election as U.S. President will somehow strengthen the chances that Aristide will return from his self-imposed exile in South Africa. Organizers handed out small flyers with images of Aristide and President-Elect Barack Obama juxtaposed, accompanied by the text ''No matter what, he is returning'' and the Lavalas logo. The flyers are a part of a FL larger effort to insinuate that U.S. policy toward Haiti will dramatically shift in Aristide's favor when Obama takes office; the party also organized small street celebrations the day following Obama's election victory. Lavalas Executive Committee member Jacques Mathelier and former FL Senator Yvon Feuille separately told the press December 16 that Lavalas will appeal to Obama after his inauguration to facilitate the return of Aristide by February or March 2009. Chamber President Jean-Jacques and Senator Anacacis Jean Hector (Lespwa, West) both spoke out to argue that nothing prevents Aristide from returning to Haiti, given that there is no provision for exile in the Haitian constitution. LAVALAS MODERATES IN DISARRAY -------------- ¶6. (C) Prominent moderate leaders of the party such as former Prime Minister Yvon Neptune avoided the December 16 marches, an indication that strong divisions within the party remain. However, popular groups represented in Neptune's ''Team Responsible for Consensus'' (ref C),such as the ''Reflection Cell of Popular Organizations of the Lavalas Base'' and ''Saint Jean Bosco,'' were involved in planning the demonstration, according to Deputy Jonas Coffy (Lavalas, West). (Comment: This development could either mean that support for Neptune's faction of the party is eroding or that the popular groups are hedging their bets, maintaining an affiliation with both factions. End comment.) ¶7. (C) Neptune's wing of the party held a ''day of reflection'' December 14 as an alternative to the December 16 marches; Narcisse and her associates were not invited. Members of Neptune's interim committee, minor figures in other political parties, academics, and Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) President Frantz-Gerard Verret attended the seminar, FL moderate and former Chamber of Deputies President Yves Cristalin, told Poloff December 16. Annette Auguste (also known as ''So Anne'') did not attend the event for health reasons, he said, but her husband did. (Note: Unlike the marches for Aristide's birthday earlier this year, Auguste was not seen during the December 16 demonstration; she had alluded to a disagreement with other FL Executive Committee members during a television interview in October.) Cristalin also repeated earlier charges that the Executive Committee was relying on ''bandits'' and ''thugs'' to consolidate its support as the senatorial elections approach. ¶8. (C) Meanwhile, Lavalas moderates appear not to have a coherent strategy to contest the upcoming senatorial elections or oppose the hardline faction of the party lead by Narcisse. FL Deputy Jonas Coffy told Poloff December 12 that the ''Team Responsible for Consensus'' formed by former PM Yvon Neptune did not plan to register or present its own candidates for the elections. Instead, he said, they would file documents with the CEP contesting Maryse Narcisse's claim to represent the party. Separately, Cristalin told a MINUSTAH official November 28 that Aristide has not endorsed Lavalas's participation in the elections, according to a MINUSTAH report. Cristalin told MINUSTAH he has kept Aristide informed of the group's activities through intermediaries, but that he has heard no response from the former President. FORMER PM ALEXIS TRYING TO MAKE INROADS? -------------- ¶9. (C) Cristalin described a wide range of recent contacts between former Prime Minister and current Lespwa coalition leader Jacques-Edouard Alexis and various Lavalas figures during his November 28 meeting with MINUSTAH. Cristalin PORT AU PR 00001749 003 OF 003 asserted that Alexis has sent two envoys to South Africa to get Aristide's ''endorsement,'' and that ''Team Responsible for Consenus'' member Annette Auguste (also a member of the FL Executive Committee),former FL deputy Phelito Doran, and FL popular organization leader Jean-Marie Samdy were also in touch with Alexis. (Note: Preval himself has reached out to various Lavalas figures, according to several reports. In October, he put FL activist Rene Monplaisir in charge of building a police substation along Route 1 in Cite Soleil, according to a Narcotics Affairs Section subcontractor who spoke to Monplaisir, and Preval reportedly reached out to Lavalas popular organizations to assist in the identification of scholarship recipients in poor neighborhoods (ref D). End note.) COMMENT: LAVALAS HARDLINERS GAIN GROUND -------------- ¶10. (C) Although attendance at the December 16 rally was modest; it nonetheless succeeded in keeping the memory of Aristide alive. It also focused attention on the growing discontent with President Preval among some segments of the population. The Executive Committee's efforts to associate Aristide with President-elect Obama indicates they may try to make good on their promise to approach Obama representatives to attempt to secure U.S. support for Aristide's return. ¶11. (C) The decision of Lavalas's moderates to cede the candidate selection process to Maryse Narcisse and the party's Executive Committee is puzzling, especially since they seem to have extracted no concessions in return. Divisions between the two camps remain strong -- the sides have competing committees, rallies, and even stationery -- but many predict that they will reunite before the senatorial elections currently scheduled for April 2009. Given the Executive Committee's perceived proximity to Aristide, and their apparently growing grassroots support, any reconciliation is likely to be on their terms. TIGHE