CLOUDY PROSPECTS FOR HAITIAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 001673 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/EX, WHA/CAR, S/CRS, AND INR/IAA WHA/EX PLEASE PASS TO USOAS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID HA SUBJECT: CLOUDY PROSPECTS FOR HAITIAN ELECTIONS REF: A. PORTAUPRINCE 1136 ¶B. PORTAUPRINCE 1517 ¶C. PORTAUPRINCE 1559 ¶D. PORTAUPRINCE 1649 ¶E. PORTAUPRINCE 1560 ¶F. PORTAUPRINCE 1644 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas C. Tighe for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: There is still no political consensus or final executive decision to hold long-delayed partial Senate elections next April. Two powerful political parties have criticized the Provisional Electoral Council's (CEP's) halting preparations for these elections. Most political parties boycotted a high-level forum on the Electoral Law organized by the CEP November 19, claiming that the CEP had failed to consult with the parties and was subservient to President Preval. There is considerable Haitian and international skepticism that Haiti and its CEP are capable of organizing these elections by April, and then holding the next round of legislative elections that should be held by the end of 2009. A growing segment of Haiti's political class is calling for merging these two elections into a single election in November 2009, which would fill two thirds of the Senate, the entire Chamber of Deputies, and numerous local posts. That course of action would be logistically and financially more feasible, but would leave over a third of Senate seats vacant for at least an additional five months. Prime Minister Pierre-Louis says she wants the elections held in April and November, but President Preval's intentions remain obscure. He has yet to issue the decree required to make the April 19 election date official. End summary. PREPARATIONS CONTINUE, BUT DECREE REMAINS UNSIGNED -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The CEP and international donors are continuing preparations for senatorial elections currently planned for April 19. The Council is working to update voter registers, ensure voters are adequately documented, and select new voting sites in accordance with the new Electoral Law published July 25 (ref A). (Note: The terms of one third of Haiti's 30 Senators expired in January but were extended until May. The terms of the second third of the Senate, as well as the entire Chamber of Deputies, expire in January ¶2010. Long-overdue indirect elections are also needed to fill important local government positions and establish a Permanent Electoral Council. Only 18 of 30 Senators remain in office, jeopardizing the viability of the legislative branch, since the absence of only three senators breaks a quorum and prevents the Senate from passing any legislation. In addition to the 10 vacant seats of Senators whose terms expired in May, one Senator died in office and another was expelled after an inquiry determined he held dual nationality. End note.) ¶3. (C) The April 19 date will not be official, however, until President Rene Preval signs a decree formally fixing the date (refs B and C). His failure so far to do so, after the CEP first proposed the date in late October, has frustrated many of his defenders and allowed conspiracy theories to flourish. Willy Louis, a member of the executive committee of Preval's Lespwa coalition, told POLOFF that the elections decree was ready to sign, but he was at a loss to explain why Preval had not signed it. The official line remains that Preval wants planning for the April elections to continue, as his chief of staff Fritz Longchamps told WHA DAS David Robinson and the Ambassador November 20 (ref D),although Longchamps added that having a second round of elections in November 2009 would be exceedingly difficult for logistical and financial reasons. DISCONTENT BUILDING WITHIN THE RULING COALITION -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Not all Lespwa members, however, dismiss the delay as a benign result of the languorous pace of work at the National Palace. Chamber of Deputies President Eric Jean Jacques told POLOFF November 25 that it was ''not at all clear'' that Preval wanted elections this April and that he was ''very concerned'' that Preval would not support PORT AU PR 00001673 002 OF 003 elections to renew the second third of the Senate and the entire Chamber of Deputies in November 2009. Jean Jacques, once a fervent supporter of Preval, recently has been increasingly vocal in his opposition to him: he took to the airwaves November 24 to criticize what he called the lack of visible results in the government's disaster response efforts and its inability thus far to fully account for USD 197 million in emergency funds released pursuant to a declaration of emergency on September 11. TWO MAJOR PARTIES BOYCOTT ELECTORAL FORUM -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A number of political parties, including the Fusion of Social Democrats and the Struggling People's Party (OPL), boycotted a November 19 forum organized by the CEP to publicize preparations for the upcoming elections and procedural changes required by the new Electoral Law. (Note: The two parties, the second and fourth largest in the Parliament respectively, account for about one-fourth of the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate. End note.) OPL Chairman Edgar Leblanc Fils (speaking for the Convention of Political Parties, a grouping of the larger parties) and Osner Fevry, an official of the National Council of Haitian Political Parties (a grouping of 30 smaller parties) held a press conference November 19 to justify their boycott. They accused the CEP of failing to consult with political parties in drafting up the election law and setting the election date, of showing subservience to the Executive Branch, and failing to publish an operational calendar of activities leading up to the April 19 elections. ¶6. (C) Fusion spokesman Micha Gaillard told POLOFF November 28 that the Convention of Political Parties boycotted the forum and would boycott the registration of political parties mandated by the Electoral Law to protest the lack of transparency in the CEP's work and the lack of a clear electoral calendar to guide the Council's next steps. Gaillard said his party would not register before the deadline, which a MINUSTAH official told him would be extended by one week to December 5, unless a clear electoral calendar is published. He predicted that the Convention's other member parties, including Alyans and OPL, would follow suit. A November 27 meeting between the political parties and the CEP yielded few concrete results aside from an agreement to study technical deficiencies in the law, according to press reports. CALLS FOR COMBINED ELECTIONS IN LATE 2009 PERSIST -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Prominent Senator and Preval ally Anacacis Jean Hector announced his support November 26 for delaying the April partial Senate elections, and suggested that these be merged with the elections to be held in November 2009, which include the second third of the Senate, the entire Chamber of Deputies, and possibly indirect elections to complete the formation of local government entities. A number of influential lawmakers have called for combined elections, citing the high cost of two national elections in the space of seven months in the face of numerous other demands on the nation's budget. (Note: The elections are expected to cost USD 16.5 million, of which USD 11 million will be provided by the U.S. and other international donors.) In addition, they argue, the CEP may not be up to the challenge of organizing two national elections in the same year. A number of smaller political parties voiced their tentative support for Jean Hector's plan, according to December 1 press reports. REGISTRATION DEADLINE MAY FORCE LAVALAS FACE-OFF -------------- --- ¶8. (C) A fast-approaching deadline for political parties to register with the CEP may force the Council to decide which of two factions of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's Fanmi Lavalas (FL) party will be allowed to use the party's name in the elections. Articles 105-07 of the Electoral Law govern the submission and acceptance of registration requests, but the law contains no provisions for judging competing attempts of two groups to register under the same name. Maryse Narcisse, a confidante of Aristide and a member of FL's Executive Committee, told POLOFF November 28 that she had attempted to register at the CEP but was told that only PORT AU PR 00001673 003 OF 003 new parties were obliged to register. Her associates subsequently learned that this was untrue, but she understands that the registration deadline was extended from November 28 to December 8 to accommodate parties that had been given incorrect information. ¶9. (C) FL Deputy Jonas Coffy, a prominent member of Yvon Neptune's ''Interim Committee'' formed to wrest control of the party from Maryse Narcisse and other Aristide associates (ref E),told POLOFF November 27 that his faction of the party has no plans to register before the deadline. He added that Neptune's Interim Committee was still deliberating about how to approach the elections. (Comment: Their faction's predicament may be further complicated by the fact that Senator Rudy Herivaux, who registered the party for the 2006 elections, has apparently aligned himself with Narcisse. Neptune allies Yves Cristalin and Coffy had previously expressed enthusiasm for their prospects in the upcoming elections, but their recent complaints about the CEP's preparations may reflect a new pessimism about their chances for success. Chamber President Jean Jacques told POLOFF November 25 that he believed Narcisse's faction of the party was stronger and had more grassroots support. End comment.) COMMENT: PREVAL'S INACTION CREATES UNCERTAINTY -------------- - ¶10. (C) Although technical preparations for the elections are underway, Preval's failure thus far to sign the decree officially setting the election date has left the election under a cloud of uncertainty. Some believe that Preval plans to fill the vacant third of the Senate and then build consensus for a temporary halt to elections while he launches a process to rework the constitution; others impute darker motives to the President, believing he plans to let the mandates of Deputies and Senators expire and then govern by decree. It is not yet clear whether Preval's inaction reflects his usual lack of energy and focus, or more Machiavellian calculations imputed to him by his worst detractors. Prime Minister Michele Pierre-Louis, however, has told the Ambassador and other diplomats here that she is determined that the April partial Senate elections be held (ref F). ¶11. (C) The reaction to the CEP's November outreach event points to the thick atmosphere of mistrust toward the government on the election issue. Yet at least some of the political parties have less-than-upright motives. Some believe they are not ready for two successive national campaigns, having large unpaid campaign debts from 2006 (Fusion),lacking funds to finance these campaigns, or fearing they are unable to quickly identify and field viable candidates. Some political actors may earnestly believe, as does MINUSTAH's Electoral Affairs Office, that two national elections (each requiring a runoff) in a single year would overly tax Haiti's logistical capacity and financial resources. TIGHE