HAITI: TENTATIVE DATE FOR SENATE ELECTIONS, APRIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 001517

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/EX AND WHA/CAR, S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA
WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA
SUBJECT: HAITI: TENTATIVE DATE FOR SENATE ELECTIONS, APRIL
19

REF: PORT AU PRINCE 00783

Classified By: DCM Thomas C. Tighe for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) After over a year of stagnation in election
preparations, Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council (CEP)
announced that the first round of Senate elections would be
held April 19. That date is not final until confirmed by
Presidential decree. The latest GOH amended budget commits
additional funds to the CEP that fill the gap between donor
pledges and the overall cost of the elections. The Prime
Minister has assigned the Ministry of Planning to direct GOH
management of the elections and coordinate with donors.
There is a serious capacity gap in the ability of the CEP to
manage this election. It is still not clear whether indirect
elections will take place for local government and a
Permanent Electoral Council. End summary.

Election Calendars Options
--------------


2. (SBU) The electoral calendar as laid out in the 1987
Constitution calls for elections for one-third of the Senate
every two years. With the current parliamentary session
having begun in 2006, the election for the first third should
have been held in time for the senators to take their seats
on the second Monday in January 2008. The latest estimates
from the Provisional Electoral Council
(CEP) put the cost of these elections at USD 16.5 million --
a relatively realistic figure that has emerged from lengthy
deliberations between the CEP and MINUSTAH.


3. (U) In addition to the Senate elections, the chain of
indirect elections outlined in the constitution -- and
included in the current CEP,s mandate -- is also late.
Indirect elections begin at the county council (ASEC) level
and culminate with the selection of a permanent electoral
council, with positions for various levels of local
government and many justice of the peace positions selected
along the way. Indirect elections were slated to begin as
soon as local and municipal positions were filled through
popular elections in late 2006, but the previous CEP never
instigated the process. Although the indirect elections are
part of the mandate of the current CEP, they have never
figured in this CEP's discussions with MINUSTAH and
international donors.

President Convenes Election Meeting, Tentative Date Set
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) President Preval invited the major election players
to the National Palace for an election planning meeting
October 28. The Prime Minister, Minister of Finance and
Economy Daniel Dorsainvil, Minister of Planning Jean-Max
Bellerive, the SRSG Hedi Annabi, and the main MINUSTAH
election planning officials attended. CEP President Frantz
Verret gave a PowerPoint presentation on the state of
elections preparations that MINUSTAH election officials had
prepared for him. The only edit he made to the presentation
was that he left out dates MINUSTAH had proposed for the
first and second rounds. When Verret finished his
presentation, President Preval had only one question: what
were the dates. Verret repeated the MINUSTAH dates of April
19 for the first round, June 7 for the second, and the
official results announced June 29. Preval agreed, and as he
left the room, motioned for the press to enter. Verret
repeated the dates to the press.


5. (SBU) MINUSTAH Electoral Assistance Chief Marc Plum
emphasized to Polcouns October 29 that no election date is
final until set by a Presidential decree. Plum said he had
proposed to the CEP that the CEP and MINUSTAH immediately
begin daily election planning meetings. Verret said this
would not be possible, since most CEP counselors were leaving
for Greece the next day for an election seminar. Several
counselors also planned to be in the U.S. to observe the
presidential elections. Plum concluded that no planning
meetings would be held before the first or second week of
November. He assesses that the CEP and especially its
President will not be equal to the task of running this
election without considerable outside help.

PORT AU PR 00001517 002 OF 003



Planning Minister May Play a Coordinating Role
-------------- -


6. (SBU) GOH-initiated election planning prior to the October
28 meeting spotlighted the gap in election preparations.
Minister of Planning and External Cooperation Jean Max
Bellerive, in an October 15 meeting with donor country
representatives and the CP, urged the latter to quickly
develop an electoal calendar, present a final budget and
hold reglar meetings with donor partners to ensure better
communication. He asked donors to clarify the amont of
funds available to support elections and ientify any
conditions assigned to the funding (e.g., purpose,
restrictions). Bellerive underscored the provisional nature
of the current CEP, and that its mandate does not include
elections subsequent to the upcoming elections for one-third
of the Senate.

CEP Budget
--------------


7. (SBU) At the October 15 meeting, CEP Director General
Pierre-Louis Opont estimated the budget for the partial
Senate elections at USD 16.5 million (an 8.1 percent increase
over the CEP's previous budget estimate). The CEP budget
document received separately by poloff assumed there are
700,000 new eligible voters for a total of 4.2 million
eligible voters. Opont confirmed that the GOH will
contribute USD 5.5 million for the cost of the elections.


8. (SBU) Estimated donor contributions, which will form a
trust fund to be coordinated by the UNDP, include: USD 4
million (Canada); USD 4 million (European Union); USD 3
million (USA); and USD 500,000 (Brazil). (Note: USAID will
provide an additional USD 1 million to the International
Foundation for Electoral Systems-IFES for CEP capacity
building. End note.)


9. (SBU) Opont said that the current electoral law's increase
in the required number of voting centers to two per communal
section means that over 600 new polling stations (''voting
centers'') must be set up, creating additional costs. The
CEP, in collaboration with MINUSTAH, was already identifying
new voting centers and assessing centers previously
identified but damaged or destroyed by the August/September
flooding. He believed that even with these challenges, an
official electoral calendar could be confirmed by
mid-December, leading to a mid-April election date.


10. (SBU) Opont cited election personnel as another
constraint. The CEP had to pay wage arrears to
already-trained departmental electoral councils (BEDs) and
communal electoral councils (BECs) -- many who went unpaid
during the 2005/2006 electoral process. Opont cautioned that
if the trained BEDs and BECs do not receive their back wages,
it will be difficult to re-recruit them for the upcoming
election. Recruiting and training of entirely new personnel
would push elections farther into the future. As thousands
of residents had likely lost their national identification
cards during the August/September flooding, preparation of
new cards, although crucial for identification during the
election process, would take time.

Donors-CEP: No Agreement Yet
--------------


11. (SBU) UNDP Representative Anne-Marie Cluckers said the
project document for the elections, an MOU setting down
modalities and accountability for donor election funding, is
currently with the CEP for comment. Minister Bellerive
recommended that UNDP ensure the MOU correspond precisely to
donor-funded amounts and that it specify program uses.
Bellerive recommended to the CEP that the elections budget be
finalized and circulated. Bellerive clarified that the MOU
would be concluded between the UNDP (as overall donor trust
fund manager) and the CEP.


12. (SBU) MINUSTAH Electoral Assistance Chief Marc Plum
expressed skepticism as to the proposed April date for
elections, given the loss of time caused by numerous vacation
days in late 2008-early 2009 (including the February
Carnival),loss of voting centers damaged in the recent
flooding, and questions about how the voting centers would be

PORT AU PR 00001517 003 OF 003


managed. He added that for indirect elections to take place
in late 2009, preparations would have to commence in spring
2009, which likely would be impossible given preparations
required for April 2009 Senate elections.

Prime Minister Weighs In
--------------


13. (C) Prime Minister Michel Pierre-Louis convoked CEP
President Verret, Ministers of Interior, Planning, and
Finance, UN Special Representative to the Secretary General
Hedi Annabi, the Office of National Identification (ONI),and
the Organization of American States (OAS) to a meeting
October 16 to discuss the electoral calendar. (Note: ONI
was established in 2005 to reorganize the civil registry
and issue national ID cards. OAS provides technical
assistance -- through support from Canada -- to ONI in the
area of logistical and computer training, technical staff
support and specialized equipment and computers. End note.)
OAS Elections Advisor Roly Davila (protect),who attended the
meeting, told poloff and USAIDoff October 21 that the PM
emphasized the Senate elections should be held as soon as
possible, printing of election materials should commence
without delay, and the CEP must move more quickly, especially
since it has GOH and donor funding commitments that cover
costs presented in the revised budget.


14. (C) Davila said Pierre-Louis questioned ONI on timing of
issuance of new and replacement voter ID cards, and
questioned CEP on its efforts to recruit BEDs and BECs. The
PM also emphasized that the Ministry of Planning and External
Cooperation would coordinate the electoral process.


15. (SBU) While Davila said he was fairly optimistic the OAS,
in cooperation with ONI, could replace lost cards, no one
knows how many are missing, especially in areas hard-hit by
flooding such as Gonaives and Cabaret. He was confident that
even though there are thousands of internally displaced
persons (IDPs),it is feasible to determine where IDPs have
settled and then travel to those areas to validate
identities.

Comment: Political Will for Elections
--------------


16. (C) MINUSTAH officials who work closely with the CEP are
skeptical of the leadership and management ability of that
body. They believe that only Director General Opont has
management experience, but that even he will still need
extensive technical assistance. The issue of political will
remains a question. The Prime Minister wants to get these
elections done, and her Minister of Planning taking charge of
the process is a good sign. President Preval's commitment to
Senate elections has never been strong. He must not only
issue the decree confirming the election date, but then stand
behind his Prime Minister, Minister of Planning and the CEP
as they get down to the details of elections planning and
execution.
SANDERSON