HAITI: FAVORABLE POLITICAL WINDS FOR NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PORT AU PRINCE 001377 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR, DRL, S/CRS, INR/IAA SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR TREASURY FOR MAUREEN WAFER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID HA SUBJECT: HAITI: FAVORABLE POLITICAL WINDS FOR NEW GOVERNMENT AFTER HURRICANES REF: A) PORT AU PRINCE 1364 B) PORT AU PRINCE 1301 C) PORT AU PRINCE 1275 PORT AU PR 00001377 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Sanderson. Reason: E.O. 12958 1.4 (b),(d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The government of Michele Pierre-Louis entered its first 100 days facing the monumental challenge of a national disaster, but enjoys a political honeymoon with a parliament disposed to give her the support she needs to help victims and rebuild the country, and with a public unaccustomed to effective government and inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt for now. Whether the government can turn this natural disaster into a political opportunity will depend on Pierre-Louis' decisiveness in disaster management, how effectively she works with parliament, and whether President Preval allows his new Prime Minister autonomy to govern without his frequent interference. A truce exceeding two to three months is unlikely, since the capacity of Haitian politicians to put aside personal interests for the sake of the national good is congenitally limited. Hurricane and flood damage means that Senate elections will not happen until the spring of 2009 at the earliest. The Senate, vulnerable to quorum-blocking due to 12 vacant Senate seats, remains a potential source of trouble for the government. Embassy continues to urge all actors to support the new government's rebuilding efforts, and move toward elections as soon as possible. End Summary. Storm Disaster Produced Favorable Winds for New Government -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Michele Pierre-Louis took office as Prime Minister September 5 after a protracted and acrimonious battle between the executive and legislative branches that saw two previous PM candidates rejected by parliament. Her government was sworn in just as the magnitude of the destruction wrought by four successive hurricanes was becoming clear. The political winds she faces at the moment are favorable. The catastrophic damage across most of the country caused by these storms has given the President and the PM temporary immunity from political prosecution, with the focus on helping victims rather than assigning blame. Reginald Boulos, a businessman and political observer often sharply critical of the President, told PolCouns that the hurricane damage has disposed the public to hold catastrophic weather events and not the President or PM responsible for their hardship. He predicted that this situation would help the government get through the challenges facing the government before the storms, especially the delayed opening of the school year, now scheduled for October 6. ¶3. (SBU) Another traditional obstacle to the smooth functioning of government in Haiti, the parliament, stands temporarily forced into a cooperative mood, feeling pressure to repair its obstructionist image created by its toppling the government in April and then preventing the approval of a new government for nearly five months. Now that the new government has taken office in the middle of national disaster, the parliament is inclined to give it what it asks for in disaster relief and reconstruction. PM Pierre-Louis, for her part, is inclined to repair bruised relations with the legislative branch. The private sector generally supports her, and is taking its own fund-raising initiatives to aid hurricane victims. (septel). PM Trying to Turn Calamity into Opportunity -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Taking advantage of this situation, Pierre-Louis has moved decisively in her first three weeks in office, saying she wanted to turn this disaster into an opportunity. She created a government coordinating committee to oversee disaster relief (ref C),got state of emergency legislation PORT AU PR 00001377 002.2 OF 004 through parliament on nearly unanimous votes (ref B), announced a USD 197,560,000 emergency relief and reconstruction program (ref A),and personally visited three stricken areas. A majority of legislators, party officials, and outside observers give Pierre-Louis high marks for these initial steps. They believe her trips to affected regions and contact with disaster victims on the ground helped her image, in stark contrast to the reclusive habits of President Preval and the choreographed visits outside the capital by the preceding PM Jacques Edouard Alexis. PM's First Moves Encouraging -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Embassy contacts in the parliament, political parties, and the private sector believe the duration of this truce will depend on whether the PM continues to move decisively. If her government's momentum flags, deputies and senators will move into the vacuum to criticize and obstruct. Her honeymoon with the legislature will also hinge on whether she allows senators and deputies to share the political limelight of reconstruction. Legislators want the credit for getting projects for their districts, believing this is the only way they have to get re-elected. The first signs of the government's handling of the parliament are encouraging. The PM took four deputies from the Southern Department with her in a September 23 visit to Les Cayes. Finally, legislators and observers tell us that Pierre-Louis needs to be allowed to govern free of meddling by President Preval. The President's fear of the political ambitions of former Prime Minister Alexis led him to keep the PM and his ministers on a very short leash. Embassy's initial impression is that Preval, at least initially, will allow PM Pierre-Louis more room to govern. However, we are seeing a worrying habit of the President to tie the PM down in long, drawn out meetings. Parliament Supportive -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Parliamentary support for Pierre-Louis is strong but not unanimous. The preponderant belief in both legislative chambers is that they must support the legislation needed for disaster relief and reconstruction. That perception motivated the strong support for the state of emergency law. All indications are that it will extend to the amended FY 2007-2008 budget submitted the week of September 22 and the follow-on FY 2008-2009 budget. ¶7. (C) The majority bloc in the Chamber of Deputies, the Cooperative of Progressive Parliamentarians (CPP),is still solidly behind the government, but Embassy suspects behind this support lies the hope of securing projects for their districts. Approximately 20-25 percent of deputies remain at the very least unenthusiastic. Deputies Jonas Coffy (Fanmis Lavalas) and Elouse Doreus (OPL) told Poloff September 23 that this government is worse than the preceding one, unable to help the Haitian people, and discredited by the fact that eight ministers from the previous government had been held over. Nevertheless, Embassy believes that deputies will find it hard to justify opposing the PM on disaster relief and reconstruction. The Senate for now is disposed to work with the government. Officials of political parties that instructed their deputies to abstain on the Pierre-Louis confirmation vote (Fusion, OPL) now criticize her privately. Fusion spokesman Micha Gaillard told Poloff September 25 he was not impressed with Pierre-Louis, whom he advised to stop traveling and start governing and showing leadership. We note, however, that Fusion for now is not taking this message public. Things That Could Spoil the New Atmosphere -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Seeds of potential conflict in executive-legislative relationship are already apparent. Certain Senators are using high fuel prices as an issue to score points against the PORT AU PR 00001377 003.2 OF 004 government. The Senate Committees on Commerce, and Justice and Public Security grilled Minister of Economy and Finance Daniel Dorsainvil and Minister of Commerce Marie Josee-Gagnier in a September 25 hearing as to why gas prices in Haiti had not fallen in step with world oil prices. Dorsainvil said that the decreased price of recent deliveries of refined products might enable the government to reduce pump prices, but he made no promises. ¶9. (C) However, the PM herself may have had a hand in calling these hearings, as a backhanded maneuver to pressure Dorsainvil, a holdover from the previous government known for opposing any policy at odds with his strong orthodox economic views. Senator Michel Clerie (Fusion, Grand Anse),who chairs the Senate Commerce Committee, told PolCouns that persons close to PM Pierre-Louis had asked him to summon Dorsainvil before the Committee as a way to pressure him to lower gas prices, since the government had been unable to convince him. If true, this would indicate that Pierre-Louis is not yet able to impose her will on all members of her cabinet. She has told the Ambassador, however, that she is ''surprised'' at how well the Cabinet is following her lead. ¶10. (SBU) Michele Pierre-Louis caused controversy when she promised the week of September 15 to give each of Haiti's 144 municipalities 5 million Haitian gourdes (USD 125,000),of which 1 million gourdes ($25,000) would be allocated to each Senator and Deputy to disburse in their districts. This immediately provoked protests that implementing government programs is not the constitutional function of legislative branch, and that putting government project money into the hands of legislators was an invitation to corruption. Senate President Kely Bastien said on the radio late in the week of September 22 that senators and deputies would not administer these funds, but only help identify projects they would be spent on. Senate Elections Further Delayed -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The Senate may prove to be troublesome for the new government. Embassy sources agree that current conditions make Senate elections impossible this year, even though they are already almost one year behind schedule. Certain members of the Provision Electoral Council (CEP) have said that they can be held in March 2009 at the earliest. Outside the CEP, many political and private sector sources, as well as MINUSTAH electoral affairs officials, now suspect the government will merge the delayed Senate elections with the next round of Senate election, elections for the entire Chamber of Deputies, and local elections, which constitutionally should all be held in late 2009. The fact that 12 of 30 Senate seats remain vacant, while the quorum remains at 16, makes that body vulnerable to the whim of any combination of three senators who choose to stay away. The temptation to use that leverage to further personal political agendas may prove hard to resist. ¶12. (C) PM Pierre-Louis, however, has told the Ambassador that she is determined that the Senate elections be held as soon as feasible. President Preval told the press September 28 that Senate elections were a high priority, and that he would consult with the CEP on setting a date. Comment -------------- ¶13. (SBU) How long these favorable winds will blow is anybody's guess, but we believe the current political truce is fragile at best. The capacity of Haiti's political class to look beyond short-term personal interest and ambition to focus on the good of the nation is surprisingly limited, even in times of crisis. Several Embassy political contacts confirm that the obsession with the 2009 legislative and the 2011 presidential elections continues to churn just below the surface despite the current relative good will toward the new government. The government's USD 197 million reconstruction PORT AU PR 00001377 004.2 OF 004 plan could easily fall prey to political bickering and accusations of corruption. Accusations that the government is favoring some regions over others with disaster assistance are already emerging and will probably become more vehement. Nevertheless, we are impressed by the Pierre-Louis government's decisive first steps, and by the PM's stated intention to turn the disaster into an opportunity to rally Haitians behind a national rebuilding effort. Unity is a powerful rallying cry in the Haitian political vocabulary. Often used frivolously, Pierre-Louis is using it in a serious effort to launch her new government into disaster relief and reconstruction. Embassy will continue to urge all political actors to put aside individual differences and support the government in meeting the overwhelming challenges of this moment. SANDERSON