MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: WHAT'S AT STAKE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000093 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MW SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: WHAT'S AT STAKE REF: PODGORICA 088 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Montenegro will hold presidential elections on April 6, with a runoff on April 20 if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round. The President has limited and largely ceremonial powers, but as the head of state he commands authority beyond his formal prerogatives. Although incumbent President Vujanovic leads significantly in the polls, this election is being hotly contested by the top three opposition leaders. This is also a race for primacy among opposition candidates. END SUMMARY. Presidential Powers Limited... -------------- ¶2. (U) According to the Constitution, Montenegro's President has limited rights and responsibilities. He or she: -- represents Montenegro in the country and abroad; -- commands the armed forces, on the basis of decisions taken by the Defense and Security Council; -- promulgates laws by ordinance (Note: The President can also veto legislation; the Parliament may override the veto with a simple majority, or by two-thirds vote in the case of specific legislation spelled out in the Constitution); -- announces parliamentary elections; -- nominates to the Parliament: candidates for PM (after consulting with political parties); the Chief Justice and judges of the Constitutional Court; and the Protector of Human Rights; -- appoints and recalls ambassadors and head of diplomatic missions of Montenegro abroad, at the proposal of the Government and after obtaining the opinion of the parliamentary committee responsible for international relations; -- receives letters of accreditation from foreign ambassadors; -- awards medals and honors; -- grants amnesty; and -- performs other duties stipulated by the Constitution or the law. ¶3. (U) (Note: President Vujanovic has a staff of about 30, divided between a Cabinet and a General Secretariat. The former consists of Vujanovic's chiefs of staff and protocol, as well as advisors for international relations, national security, economic relations, human rights and minorities, and security policy. The latter, headed by a Secretary General, includes offices for petitions, amnesty, and awards. End Note.) ¶4. (U) In contrast, the Prime Minister and the Parliament have considerably more authority. Among other powers, the Government manages domestic and foreign policy, enforces laws, adopts decrees and signs international agreements, and proposes the state budget and the national security and defense strategy. The Parliament, among other powers, passes laws, proclaims war and emergencies, adopts the budget and national security and defense strategy, authorizes the use of Montenegrin armed forces abroad, calls national referendums, and elects and dismisses the government, chief prosecutor, and central bank. ...But Race Still Matters -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The fact that the president's formal powers are limited does not mean this election is unimportant: PODGORICA 00000093 002 OF 002 -- As head of state, the President has moral authority and media access with which to criticize (or support) the Government, promote his or her own vision of Montenegro's future, and/or propose alternative policies and positions. The President's ability to veto legislation is a powerful tool, and, as in any institution, a strong personality also exercises authority beyond his or her formal powers. -- The President also chairs the Council for National Security, the triumvirate (including the PM and Speaker of Parliament) that commands the armed forces. At present, all three members are from the ruling coalition. -- While Vujanovic has a big lead and will most probably be reelected, a strong opposition showing would be symbolically significant in demonstrating that the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) -- which has had a virtual monopoly on power for 17-plus years (as one of the successors to the Communists) -- is politically vulnerable. Opposition candidates at a minimum want to force a runoff election in order to spoil the DPS aura of invincibility and to draw further attention to substantive differences with DPS policies. -- There is a race within a race between Nebojsa Medojevic (PzP),Andrija Mandic (SNS),and Srdjan Milic (SNP) for primacy among opposition parties going into the 2009 parliamentary elections. Medojevic wants to restore his (self-promoted) claim to be the opposition's standard-bearer, while Mandic wants to show that he has appeal beyond anti-independence Serbs. Milic is in a fight for his political life, as he has seen his potential constituency squeezed by the more charismatic Medojevic and the more radical Mandic. -- The election is a marker of Montenegro's democratic development. A free and fair election meeting international standards would boost the country's case for integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions. Conversely, a race marred by violations would provide skeptics with ammunition to slow integration. Already, opposition leaders are charging that the ruling DPS is buying votes, paying opponents to temporarily surrender their ID cards, and abusing state resources. Presidential candidate Medojevic even told the Ambassador on 3/19 that the DPS campaign is being financed in part through a 5 million euro donation from a Rozaje narco-trafficker -- Finally, this will be the first election in over a decade not dominated by the issue of independence -- at least not overtly. (Note: The September 2006 parliamentary elections occurred after independence, but the referendum's conduct and results still dominated that campaign.) Montenegro's politicians have a chance to move beyond existential questions to focus on issues which are now of everyday concern to voters, such as the economy, jobs, regional inequality, corruption, and the tradeoff between development and environmental protection, as well as larger questions regarding Montenegro's foreign policy orientation. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Montenegro is the only country in eastern and central Europe in which the government has not changed since the fall of communism. Opposition politicians profess confidence that the election will go to a second round, despite mid-February polls showing Vujanovic's support at close to 50 percent. Ironically, it is Vujanovic, not Mandic, who appears to be dwelling most on the issue of independence. Vujanovic has stressed on a number of occasions that he represents the party that brought Montenegro statehood. Mandic, because he already has strong support among anti-independence Serbs and is now seeking to broaden his electorate, has not publicly questioned statehood. Mandic and Milic, however, have both tried to capitalize on passions about Kosovo. MOORE