MONTENEGRO LOCAL ELECTIONS -- KOSOVO RECOGNITION NOT A MAJOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000282

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TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO LOCAL ELECTIONS -- KOSOVO RECOGNITION NOT A MAJOR
FACTOR

REF: PODGORICA 210

PODGORICA 00000282 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary: The coastal tourist town of Kotor witnessed,
on November 9, the first elections in Montenegro since the GoM
recognition of Kosovo's independence. The party of PM Djukanovic
-- the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) -- increased its
representation in the city assembly, a significant outcome given
that the election was touted by some as a bellwether of popular
opinion on the Kosovo issue. The election also was
characterized by substantial campaign bickering between current
(national and local) coalition partners -- the DPS and the
Social Democratic Party (SDP). The two parties are running
separately for the first time in Kotor since 1996. All parties
told us they are open to nearly any post election coalition,
leaving the door open for a ruling coalition shake up in Kotor.
End Summary.


2. (U) According to the initial results (which should be
formally confirmed on November 13 if no complaints are filed),
the DPS won 40 percent of votes (14 mandates),followed by
Socialist People's Party (SNP) with 19 percent (7 mandates),the
Serbian List (SL) with 11 percent (4 mandates),SDP with 9
percent (3 mandates) and Liberal Party (LP) with 6 percent (2
mandates). Movement for Change (PzP),People's Party (NS),and
Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) will have a single councilor per
party. The total number of councilors elected was 33. The
preliminary data from the Centre for Democratic Transition
(CDT),which is the only organization which observed the
elections, puts turnout at roughly 64 percent of the 17,818
registered voters. No irregularities were reported on election
day.



Kosovo: Not the Issue, All About Improving Living Standards

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3. (SBU) PolCouns met with representatives of each of the eight
parties running in the local election -- DPS, SDP, HGI, SNP, LP,
NS, PzP, and SL -- on November 5.


4. (SBU) Infrastructure improvements and basic standard of
living issues topped every party's campaign priorities. Current
ruling coalition parties DPS and SDP pointed to the improvements
already completed "under their tenure," such as the new tunnel
(bypassing a treacherous mountain pass) on the road to the old
city and the growing tourism sector. Both parties -- though SDP
more eloquently and in much more detail -- outlined the ongoing
development of Kotor as a primary tourist destination for the
country and pointed to plans already in the works for further
road and basic infrastructure improvements. At the final rally
before the pre-election silence, PM (and DPS President) Milo
Djukanovic told voters to remember that the DPS, which has been
leading the ruling coalition in Kotor for the last four years,
had lived up to all they promised voters four years ago. SNP,
NS, and the Liberals (the LP also was part of the previous
ruling coalition) also highlighted infrastructure improvements
as their key post-election priority for the next Council.


5. (SBU) Only the SL (composed of largely the same parties that
make up the list at the national level, and headed by Andrija
Mandic's Serbian People's Party (SNS)),raised the GoM's Kosovo
decision as an issue for the elections. SNS Municipal Board
President Ljubo Bozovic told us that the Kotor election would
serve as a referendum on the Kosovo issue. In the end it may
have helped to shore up SNS/SL voters -- the SL doubled their
mandates from two seats to four -- but the strong DPS results
indicate that the issue did not resonate with most citizens.

DPS - SDP Showdown: A Harbinger of Things to Come?

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6. (SBU) Though leaders of both parties were very polite and
diplomatic when talking directly with us about their coalition
partner, both have been outspoken critics of the other in the
weeks leading up to the election. The pre-electoral campaign was
characterized by strong rhetoric particularly between the DPS
Mayor of Kotor, Marija Catovic, and the SDP Speaker of
Parliament, Ranko Krivokapic (a native of Kotor). Some
highlights of their open and very public clash included
Krivokapic accusing the local DPS of supporting the opposition
proposal for the local council to consider a resolution
recommending the GoM revoke decision on Kosovo and accusations
that some local DPS officials had participated in the 1992 siege
of Dubrovnik. In response, Mayor Catovic claimed that Krivokapic
had no interest in serving the public and is only interested in
making political decisions that personally benefit him. She also
accused Krivokapic of trying to illegally change the town's
urban plan.


PODGORICA 00000282 002.2 OF 002


Results: PzP Biggest Loser; SNP on the Rise?

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7. (SBU) The DPS was the biggest overall winner, winning 14
seats (the same number alone as the DPS-SDP coalition won
together in 2004). The SL gained two additional mandates, but
most parties saw a small decrease in the number of councilors.
Opposition PzP appears to be the biggest loser in these
elections; compared to the number of votes the party received in
the April 2008 Presidential elections, its support has decreased
significantly -- by 75 percent. (Note: the PzP had no local
councilors in the previous council as they had not been formed
as a political party at the time of the 2004 elections. End
note.) On the other hand, though technically losing two seats
since 2004 (from nine to seven mandates),Srdjan Milic's SNP
emerges as one of the winners in the election, gaining a seven
percent increase in support since the Presidential elections
last April. The SNP looks increasingly to be positioning itself
as the most relevant non-nationalist opposition party, while the
PzP continues to flounder. As Milic and the SNP continue to
pursue a more moderate opposition stance (on issues such as
Kosovo for example, they sided with the united opposition
initially, but ultimately decided not to boycott parliament with
the SL),it is likely that the strongly pro-Serb voters within
SNP gave their votes to the SL.


8. (SBU) Early indications are that the DPS, who need just three
seats to form a majority, will look to form a coalition with the
Liberals who have two seats and the minority Croatian HGI who
have one seat. Local DPS leader Borislav Kascelan has said that
he would resign if the DPS strikes a deal with the SDP, and so
far it appears that the vitriolic rhetoric of the campaign has
done irreparable damage to relations between the former
partners, at least in Kotor. This will throw the SDP into the
opposition and could presage tensions at the national level.
Theoretically, any party is in a position to form a coalition
and send DPS into the opposition; however, given the good
relations the DPS traditionally has had with both the LP and HGI
and the fact that the SDP told us on November 5 that they would
never consider a coalition with pro-Serb parties, a coalition
excluding the DPS is extremely unlikely.



Possible Irregularities with Prison Votes

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9 (SBU) CDT representative Milica Kovacevic told us on November
10 that the Municipal Election Commission counted 22 votes from
the "Spuz" prison, out whom 21 voted for the DPS. Although the
prison was not registered as a separate polling station, on
election day the prison functioned as a separate polling station
(technically the Municipal Election Comission must approve all
stations in advancve). Observers were not allowed to monitor,
and the prison votes were included in the total number of votes
cast. This potential irregularity is extremely relevant as it is
likely to give the DPS an additional, fifteenth mandate which
would enable it to establish a government with just the LP.
Additionally, the difference between the DPS and SNP for the
last mandate was only 15 votes, so the DPS (unofficially) might
win the fifteenth mandate because of this polling station. (The
results will be officially apprived later this week.)

Comment

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10. (SBU) The DPS, with support from both (or either) the LP and
HGI, will most likely remain in power in Kotor. Its overwhelming
success has shown that the popular vote -- at least in Kotor --
has not changed dramatically since the GoM's decision to
recognize Kosovo's independence. While the DPS remains by far
the strongest political party, Andrija Mandic's SL is
increasingly perceived as the primary pro-Serb opposition party,
and SNP appears to be attracting some previously PzP centrist
voters. Although it remains to be seen how the DPS and SDP will
position themselves in advance of the national parliamentary
elections that are due by fall 2009, the most recent
developments at the national level (REF) and the pre-electoral
campaign in Kotor are signs of some vulnerabilities in the
coalition. It is looking increasingly likely that the DPS and
SDP will run separately at the national level, though a
post-election coalition would still be a possibility. SNP's
strong showing in Kotor should continue to position the party
well to be legitimately considered by the DPS for a future
national coalition. However, many pundits believe that the
political games between DPS and SDP are artificial and that
neither would benefit from ending their coalition, at least at
the national level. End comment.
MOORE