RHETORIC OVER KOSOVO PUTS MONTENEGRO-SERBIA RELATIONS ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000252 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MW SUBJECT: RHETORIC OVER KOSOVO PUTS MONTENEGRO-SERBIA RELATIONS ON DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY REF: PODGORICA 251 PODGORICA 00000252 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Local media widely reported Serbian FM Jeremic's public warning to Montenegro against recognition of Kosovo. GoM leaders quickly rejected Jeremic's comments, stating that Montenegro will decide on recognition based solely upon its own national interests. Opposition party leaders commented privately that Jeremic's comments will only worsen the already poor relationship between Montenegro and Serbia. END SUMMARY. -------------- Jeremic warns Montenegro -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 7, local media widely reported Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic's public warning to Montenegro against recognizing Kosovo's independence. Jeremic said that such a move would represent "a stab in the back." Jeremic went on to say that Serbia "absolutely will not sit idle" if Podgorica recognizes Kosovo. Recognition of Kosovo, he continued, cannot go without consequences, especially at this time. Jeremic added that Serbia "does not want to make any threats against anyone, even though everyone in the region knows what that would mean. The Montenegrin government is well aware." Jeremic said that Serbia told Montenegrin officials in "a clear way" that "there will be no understanding of their potential decision to violate Serbia's sovereignty and territorial integrity". -------------- ... and Djukanovic responds -------------- ¶3. (U) PM Djukanovic reacted quickly, telling reporters that Montenegro and Serbia clearly have divergent views on Kosovo. He said that Montenegro does not wish to inflict damage on any country but will act according to its own national interests, reflected by the last week's decision of the Parliament (reftel). ¶4. (U) Montenegrin President Vujanovic, quoted by Serbia's BETA, said that Jeremic's statement went beyond the bounds of diplomacy. He added that Montenegro has carefully considered the issue of recognition, and has shown understanding of Serbia's views by delaying consideration of the question until now. -------------- Political Parties Privately Concerned -------------- ¶5. (SBU) POL specialist contacted political leaders to poll their reactions. The party whip for the senior ruling party, Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS),Miodrag Vukovic, told us that Jeremic's was reminiscent of Belgrade's rhetoric in the 1990s. He challenged Jeremic to visit Pristina to understand the political reality there. Movement for Change's (PzP) spokesman, Koca Pavlovic, said Jeremic's comments were unbalanced and counterproductive and that such views risk destabilizing the entire region. Pavlovic asserted that Jeremic was exacerbating divisions within Montenegro and hindering the process of reconciliation following the independence referendum. Serbian list leader Andrija Mandic declined to comment except to say that "the problem is in Montenegro." ¶6. (SBU) Quoting party leader Srdjan Milic, the Socialist People's Party (SNP) chief of staff, Rada Djurisic, said that Jeremic's statement was just the beginning of a further PODGORICA 00000252 002.2 OF 002 deterioration of relations between Montenegro and Serbia. He blamed the parliamentary vote, saying that it made the situation in Montenegro and the region even "more complicated." At the same time, he added, the SNP does not want to "add fuel to the fire." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The sharp public exchange between Jeremic and the GoM leadership is a further sign that Montenegro's recognition of Kosovo could be just around the corner. Politicians outside the coalition seemed surprised by the vehemence of Jeremic's rhetoric, generally portraying it as counterproductive to good bilateral relations. At the same time, Jeremic's comments will now almost necessitate concrete steps by Serbia against Montenegro if it recognizes Kosovo, such as recalling its Ambassador from Podgorica. End Comment. MOORE