TFGG-1: MANDIC HEATS UP ON GEORGIA, DOMINATES MONTENEGRIN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000215 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MW SUBJECT: TFGG-1: MANDIC HEATS UP ON GEORGIA, DOMINATES MONTENEGRIN SERB POLITICAL RHETORIC REF: A: PODGORICA 069; B: PODGORICA 201 PODGORICA 00000215 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Montenegro's ethnic Serb parties continue to be overshadowed by the inflammatory public statements of Andrija Mandic, president of the Serbian People's Party (SNS) and the coalition Serbian List (SL) who is using the Russia-Georgia conflict to draw parallels with Kosovo and attack NATO and U.S. foreign policy. Mandic's comments are not gaining traction with the public and more moderate Serb parties are attempting to distance themselves politically from Mandic, though they continue to work with the SNS on specific legislative issues. END SUMMARY. MANDIC'S INFLAMATORY RHETORIC ON RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Mandic has pushed the boundaries of his rhetoric by making his most extreme declarations to date on the Russia-Georgia conflict. Through an August 10 SNS press statement and a subsequent interview on the conflict between Russia and Georgia, Mandic directly attacked the United States and its policy on Kosovo. The press statement expressed support for Russia's military actions against Georgia over South Ossetia and said that Russia's actions and its attitude toward this issue are very important for stopping the United States' unilateral policy which has culminated in an attempt to create the "false state" of Kosovo. "Defense of vital Russian national interests in South Ossetia explicitly shows that the existence of a single center of power is coming to an end, the center that has primarily worked for those who are at the top," said Mandic. He went on to say that the "Yugoslav Army should have helped the Serbs in Krajina [in the mid 1990s] as the Russians helped their compatriots in South Ossetia," adding that "the Russian military action unmasked the existence of NATO." ¶3. (SBU) On August 15 SNS Vice President Novak Radulovic publicly accused the GoM of exporting weapons to Georgia which have been used in the current conflict. Radulovic also asked the GoM how many of the "Strelas" that allegedly were destroyed ended up in Georgia to hit Russian planes and helicopters. (Note: In June 2008, the GoM destroyed 1,500 of its 1,692 excess Strela man-portable surface-to-air missiles in accordance with a bilateral agreement with the U.S. Both the MoD and USG Contractors collected and retained appropriate documentation of the destruction.) Radulovic accused the GoM of "arming the enemies of our traditional allies." In an August 16 press release, the MoD responded that Montenegro has not exported ammunition and arms to Russia or Georgia and noted that the Russian Defense Ministry issued a list of states that had exported arms to Georgia, and that Montenegro was not among them. MANDIC'S RADICAL PUBLIC MESSAGE HEATS UP -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Mandic's statements on the Russia-Georgia conflict come after a summer of progressively more inflammatory public rhetoric. It is becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile these statements with his traditionally more subdued and targeted positions criticizing the Montenegrin government and supporting the status of Serbs within Montenegro. Mandic held a peaceful protest in Podgorica following Kosovo's declaration of independence in February (REF A). Mandic later spoke at a rally in Belgrade protesting Kosovo's declaration of independence but his comments were relatively restrained. ¶5. (SBU) During his Presidential campaign last spring, Mandic ran on a surprisingly positive campaign platform stressing unity and social issues, while jettisoning his usual Serb nationalist rhetoric. He resurfaced in the press in May when he met with Marko Jaksic and other Serb leaders in Kosovo. There Mandic began to ramp up his rhetoric, promising support against further recognition of Kosovo's independence. He likewise pledged actions against the GoM if it recognizes Kosovo such as joining with Kosovo Serbs to block roads leading into Montenegro during the tourist season. PODGORICA 00000215 002.2 OF 003 ¶6. (SBU) Mandic has continued to elevate his public rhetoric over the summer to attack and challenge expected GoM foreign policy decisions on NATO and Kosovo. On June 19, Mandic spoke out against the draft law on contributions to international peacekeeping missions. He said, "if it is adopted in this form, the to-date-dictator regime will very soon be sending our children, against international law, to attack and occupy different sovereign states." In the same statement Mandic warned that the Montenegrin Muslims will reach out to Muslims in the Middle East. Throughout the summer, Mandic has reiterated his promise to hold a mass protest if the government decides to recognize Kosovo's independence. On July 22 Mandic called the establishment of the Republika Srpska (RS),"the most important achievement of Serbs in the last 60 years," in response to the arrest of Radovan Karadzic (REF B). Mandic joined the Serbian Radical Party-sponsored pro-Karadzic rally in Belgrade on July 29 where he called Serbian President Tadic a "Serb traitor." MANDIC: TRUST ME IT'S JUST FOR MY CONSTITUENTS -------------- - ¶7. (SBU) On July 25 in a meeting with Mandic and his deputy, Goran Danilovic, Mandic assured poloff that the SNS is concerned primarily with improving the status of Serbs within Montenegro. He downplayed his public statements [on the RS] and explained that the SNS and SL will always react to regional events involving Serbs, suggesting that we should not give his public comments much credence. OTHER SERB PARTIES KEEP DISTANCE -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The only other Serb party to comment on the Russia-Georgia issue is the small Democratic Serbian Party (DSS),which also expressed support for Russia. The DSS, a minor party that advocates reunification with Serbia, is trying to stake a role among the more extreme pro-Serbian parties but it carries far less political weight than the SNS. ¶9. (SBU) Poloff met with leaders from other Serb parties on July 25 and 31 (before the Russia-Georgia conflict intensified) and found them to be less interested in Mandic's political rhetoric and more focused on striving for reconciliation of Serbs and other ethnic groups in Montenegro. Zoran Zizic, head of the Democratic Party of Unity (DSJ) which is part of the SL, told us that he disagreed with Mandic's public statement about Tadic and claimed Mandic's statements do not reflect his true beliefs. People's Party (NS) vice president Dragan Soc -- who runs the NS from behind the scenes -- told us that Mandic's efforts should be refocused on uniting the opposition. Soc declared that individuals must set aside ethnic and cultural differences to create an environment for reconciliation. ¶10. (SBU) The Serb-dominated Socialist People's Party (SNP) has been trying to transform itself into a civic-oriented party and distance itself from Mandic. Yet, like the other Serb parties, it continues to collaborate with the SL on legislative matters such as the opposition boycott of Parliament. The SNP, with the SNS's support, is protesting the new Law on Voter Registration (septel). SNP vice presidents Vasilije Lalosevic and Neven Gosovic told us on July 25 that they intend to keep SNP a moderate party and are trying to move it away from more radical Serb parties but acknowledge the SNP's voter base is Serb. Other Serb parties have suggested that SNP's leaders may be forced by its Serb base to participate in more political activities with the SL. COMMENT -------------- PODGORICA 00000215 003.2 OF 003 ¶11. (SBU) As the leader of the SL, Mandic sets the tone for the Serb community in Montenegro. He also represents the largest Serb party in the country and other Serb leaders recognize that the only way to affect a policy change or a change in government is to band together on major issues, even if that means working with Mandic. ¶12. (SBU) Mandic tries to manipulate political developments to his advantage -- both to boost his political future and to help his policy positions -- and he probably will continue his current radical line if he assesses he is having an impact. Public support for Montenegro's membership in NATO is only about 30 percent, and is particularly unpopular with the SNS's traditional voter base, so Mandic probably sees this issue as a perfect rallying point. Mandic has latched onto the Russia-Georgia issue to support this argument against Montenegro eventually joining NATO. His recent extremist statements, however, do not seem to be gaining traction with the public or with other traditionally anti-NATO Serb parties, most of whom are trying to engage constructively in Montenegro's political system. SKONTOS