MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS SHOW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000119 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MW SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS SHOW VUJANOVIC WINNING SECOND TERM REF: PODGORICA 116 AND PREVIOUS PODGORICA 00000119 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Unofficial results have incumbent President Vujanovic of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) winning more than 50 percent of the vote April 6 in Montenegro's first post-independence presidential election. Serbian People's Party (SNS) candidate Andrija Mandic came in a distant second, with around 20 percent of the vote. While the State Election Commission will not announce official results until later today or tomorrow, Vujanovic has declared victory and two of his three opponents have conceded (the third, Mandic, is not disputing the results). No major irregularities were reported on election day. Turnout was high (about 68%),and candidates ran generally positive and substantive campaigns. Because Vujanovic appears to have taken over 50% of the vote in the first round, no second round will be needed if these results hold. END SUMMARY. It's Unofficial...Vujanovic Wins Landslide Victory -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) The NGO Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) parallel vote tabulation -- with 100 percent of 200 (out of 1,141 in Montenegro) participating polling stations reporting -- shows Vujanovic with 51.4 percent and Mandic with 20.4 percent. Nebojsa Medojevic of the centrist Movement for Change (PzP) came in third with 15.7 percent, and Srdjan Milic of the left-center Socialist People's Party (SNP) received 12.6 percent. CDT conducted its parallel vote tabulation and fielded approximately 500 election monitors with an NED grant. ¶3. (U) The NGO Center for Monitoring (CEMI) also conducted a parallel vote tabulation based on results from 240 polling stations. With 97.9 percent of participating stations reporting, Vujanovic has 52.2 percent of the vote, Mandic 19.3 percent, Medojevic 17.4 percent, and Milic 11.2 percent. ¶4. (U) Both CDT and CEMI began releasing results after polls closed at 21:00 local time. Shortly after 22:30, President Vujanovic and fellow DPS member and Prime Minister Djukanovic declared victory to a crowd of supporters outside the Government Building in Podgorica. (Vujanovic, who called his win a "joint victory," said he would "be President for all citizens of Montenegro; we'll work together on Montenegro's European road, so that Montenegro belongs to the European Union.") DPS faithful set off fireworks around the city, and downtown Podgorica quickly became hazardous as zigzagging drivers honked horns and passengers shouted and waved Montenegrin flags. ¶5. (U) The State Election Commission will not release official results until either late today or tomorrow (by law, they have 36 hours following close of polls),and CDT told us the margin of error for Vujanovic's victory was 2.1 percent. However, the NGO's parallel vote tabulations have proven accurate in previous elections. The DPS also reportedly did its own vote tabulations based on reports from polling commission members and observers throughout the country. Medojevic and Milic have publicly conceded defeat; Mandic said he would wait until his party headquarters had verified the preliminary results. High Turnout -------------- ¶6. (U) The parallel vote tabulations estimated turnout at about 68 percent. According to CDT, turnout was 71.1 percent in the center of the country, 69.9 percent in the north, and 63.4 in the south. Turnout was slightly below the 2006 parliamentary election (when it was 71 percent),but well above the last presidential election in 2003, when it was only 48 percent. Few Violations Reported Election Day -------------- PODGORICA 00000119 002.2 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Observers had not expected major irregularities on election day, and none were reported. U.S. Embassy observers noted some minor infractions, but nothing that might have compromised the integrity of the vote. Opposition candidates were well represented on polling commissions, and the State Election Commission registered more than 800 domestic and international observers (not counting candidate observers). The OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission will announce its assessment of the campaign and vote later this afternoon (septel). Conduct of Campaign -------------- ¶8. (SBU) While no major problems were reported on the day of the vote, several deficiencies marked the campaign. In particular, we heard complaints about incomplete and confusing electoral legislation, allegations of abuse of state resources by Vujanovic, and a slight bias in state media for Vujanovic. There were a number of incidents in which candidates' advertising was defaced (particularly Mandic's). There also were allegations of ID buying, but none have been substantiated. In general, all candidates received significant media coverage, and we heard fewer allegations of vote buying and pressure to vote for a certain candidate than in previous elections. ¶9. (SBU) Overall, candidates ran substantive, issue-based campaigns (reftels). Negative campaigning was less evident than in recent elections. All candidates professed support for Montenegro's EU orientation and for Montenegro's identity as a civil state respecting minority rights. We know of no incidents where a candidate overtly questioned Montenegrin statehood (although Mandic, who ran an otherwise positive campaign, surrounded himself with Serb symbols; Vujanovic very prominently linked his candidacy with the achievement of Montenegrin independence). ¶10. (SBU) Opposition candidates focused on issues such as wages, pensions, and jobs, as well as on crime and corruption. A major opposition theme was that the DPS was running the government for its own financial benefit. NATO membership was not a major issue (although Vujanovic publicly supported it and Mandic publicly opposed). Mandic, and to a lesser degree Milic, sought to capitalize on widespread opposition to Kosovo's independence. Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Vujanovic's eventual victory was never really in doubt, but despite initial skepticism that he could mobilize DPS members and sympathizers to achieve a first-round win, he did so by capitalizing on Montenegrin independence and by highlighting his close relations with DPS-favorite Djukanovic. Mandic, who ran a generally positive, issue-based campaign -- although relying on Serb symbols and ideologues and with frequent references to his opposition to Kosovo independence -- has to be pleased to have solidified his position as the strongest opposition candidate in advance of 2009 parliamentary elections. ¶12. (SBU) We expect the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission to give election day proceedings and Montenegro's electoral administration solid marks. And while some deficiencies did mark the campaign, many observers believe it represented a modest step forward in terms of conduct and content over recent elections. MOORE