GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS HITTING HOME IN CAMBODIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000934 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, EEB, EAP FOR DAS MARCIEL DEPT PASS USAID FOR ASIA BUREAU DEPT PASS USTR FOR DAVID BISBEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ETRD CB SUBJECT: GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS HITTING HOME IN CAMBODIA REF: A. CHIANG MAI 163 ¶B. PHNOM PENH 799 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: While Cambodia's financial sector has little direct exposure to the turmoil affecting international financial markets, concerns about the indirect impacts of the global financial crisis on the health of Cambodia's macroeconomic development are growing. Weakening global demand is affecting key sectors of Cambodia's economy and economic growth is predicted to slow significantly in 2009 from the double digit growth enjoyed in recent years. The economic downturn threatens to derail plans for greater progress in poverty reduction, particularly if the government is not quick to recognize the threats to sustained economic growth. End Summary. Slowing Growth -------------- ¶2. Cambodia's recent high economic growth rates increasingly appear difficult to sustain due to fallout from the global economic crisis. The IMF recently downgraded its forecast for Cambodia's economic growth from 7 percent for 2008 to 6.5, and further revised its growth estimate for 2009 down to 4.7 percent. Given the narrow economic base, declines in key sectors such as garments and tourism are expected to drag down growth rates in the coming year. Declining Demand for Garments -------------- ¶3. (SBU) A sluggish U.S. economy has slowed demand for Cambodian garment exports. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, garment exports to the U.S. have declined by 2.09 percent in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period last year. The falloff in U.S. and global demand for garment exports is widely expected to increase in 2009, which could threaten the livelihoods of the 350,000 workers employed in a garment industry already facing fierce competition from regional neighbors such as Vietnam. Fewer Foreign Visitors -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The global economic crisis is also slowing expansion in the tourism sector. While still increasing, the rate of growth within the tourism sector has slowed. According to the Ministry of Tourism's' Chief of Tourism Statistics Office, Mr. Horth Vanny, tourist arrivals increased by over 10 percent in the first eight months of the year. However, this still represents a decline from previous years of steady twenty percent growth. Trouble in the South Korean economy may further hurt tourist numbers as Koreans comprise the largest pool of visitors to Cambodia. According to Mr. Horth Vanny, South Koreans accounted for 14.5 percent of total visitors in the first seven months of the year, followed by Vietnamese (9.7 percent),Japanese (7.2 percent),and Americans (7.2 percent.) ¶5. (SBU) The expected decline in tourism due to the global economic uncertainty is compounded by the continuing political instability in neighboring Thailand. According to media reports, the number of tourist traveling to Thailand has declined. Ref A reports that the decline in tourists to Chiang Mai is estimated at just under 20 percent since last year. Many travelers to Cambodia use Thailand as a gateway. If fewer tourists are visiting Thailand, there will be fewer tourists traveling to Cambodia. In response to the predicted slowdown, tourism industry representatives are urging the government to take measures to boost the sector, including reducing the costs of visas and entry tickets to major tourist sites. So far, the government seems to be primarily pinning its hopes on attracting tourists through its new international media campaign promoting Cambodia as "a kingdom of wonder." FDI Flows Threatened -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Other important areas of the Cambodian economy are beginning to feel the indirect impacts of the global slowdown. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into the country from affected nations are particularly at risk. FDI reached USD 876 million in 2007. Investors from South Korea have led the growth in FDI, with major construction projects and investments in real estate. According to Cambodian Investment Board statistics, FDI from South Korea accounted for nearly fourteen percent of total FDI in the first nine PHNOM PENH 00000934 002 OF 002 months of the year. There are growing concerns that global economic uncertainty and a prolonged economic downturn in South Korea could significantly impact the construction and real estate sectors. Several major large-scale construction projects financed by South Korean companies are reported in the local press to be slowing or suspending new construction activity and operations. ¶7. (SBU) While local press quoted the Director of the Construction Department as stating that construction projects increased 38 percent in the first eight months of the year, the real estate market has been stagnant since June and prices have fallen, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance. The President of the Cambodian National Federation of Building and Wood Workers in Phnom Penh, Sok Sovandeth, asserts that almost half of the city's construction workers are out of work due to the slowdown in the construction sector. (Note: The claimed 50 percent unemployment rate may be an exaggeration given that national and provincial union representatives report that the falloff in demand has not had as dramatic an effect on the rest of the nation's construction workers. End Note.) More Falling into Poverty -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The economic downturn also creates a challenging environment for poverty alleviation. From 1994 to 2004, the overall incidence of poverty was reduced from 47 percent to 35 percent. However, for Cambodia to further alleviate poverty to achieve its Millennium Development poverty reduction goal by 2015, the economy needs to grow at an annual rate of 7.5 percent for the next eight years. High inflation, estimated at over 20 percent for 2008, has contributed to more people slipping below or hovering near the poverty line this year, according to the Asia Development Bank and the Minister of Commerce. Inflation coupled with the gloomier prospects for economic growth jeopardize Cambodia's ability to sustain its strong economic performance to achieve its poverty reduction goal. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: The ripples of the world's economic woes are beginning to wash up on Cambodian soil, and it is no longer possible for Cambodians to dismiss the threats poised by the global downturn or claim isolation from international financial markets. However, despite warnings from development partners such as the IMF and ADB, the government still seems to downplay the potential risks and continues to insist that 7 percent growth for 2008 will be achieved. The more seriously the government takes these warnings now, the better. Mitigating measures are needed now to ensure that growth does not slow even below the revised figure for 2009. At the same time, growth at 4.7 percent -- if achieved -- will be viewed as one of the more enviable economic performances in the region. RODLEY