CAMBODIA'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY-ELECT: SOMETHING OLD,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000629 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, P, D, DRL, INR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR CB SUBJECT: CAMBODIA'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY-ELECT: SOMETHING OLD, SOMETHING NEW, SRP VERY BLUE REF: A. PHNOM PENH 622 ¶B. PHNOM PENH 613 ¶C. PHNOM PENH 611 ¶D. PHNOM PENH 601 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The National Assembly-elect may not be sworn in until sometime in September if the opposition chooses to drag out the election appeals process. Nonetheless, it appears the CPP will hold onto its 90 seats (Ref B) and a clear electoral mandate. Whether CPP will form a coalition, and with whom, will be the question of the month in August. In the end, the title of coalition partner may go to the swiftest and, an early FUNCINPEC coalition bid notwithstanding, a coalition could include a number of combinations. The CPP has in the past preferred to rule by coalition because, among other factors, that arrangement buffers the party from its critics. It is highly likely that there will be no delay (as there was in 2003),as the new government will want to get down to work. Post offers an assessment of the non-CPP parties elected to the National Assembly. There is the old, in Prince Norodom Ranariddh of Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP); there is the new in the Human Rights Party (HRP),which gained three seats; and then there is the "blue" in the disappointed Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), which appears to be recovering from a prick to the balloon of inflated internal expectations. (Note: Expectations many outsiders did not share (Ref D) but which may be causing the party to try to save face with its foreign supporter base by its rejection of the poll results.) The opposition, now ironically unified in protest against election results the rest of the world recognizes, could have garnered a hefty coalition bonus (Ref E),if it had united a year ago and run under one banner. END SUMMARY. Will Old Ranariddh Grace the National Assembly with his Presence? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Among the most curious election outcomes was the come-back of Prince Norodom Ranariddh who won one of two NRP seats, in Kampong Cham province, via a unique telephonic election campaign from Malaysia. In a throwback to another era, Ranariddh's voice was broadcast live over big speaker systems to assembled crowds in the audience, as a huge poster of his visage sat on stage with other more animate NRP notables. As many (now defunct) FUNCINPEC leaders had told us, Ranariddh can carry a crowd and is an effective campaigner. Having lost his Supreme Court appeal of a conviction for breach of trust just two days after the election, the Prince now faces 18 months in jail. Parliamentary immunity is not retroactive. Even if he should win a pardon from King Sihamoni, whether Ranariddh would return to parliament as an ordinary member out of power, after having been its President, remains to be seen. ¶3. (SBU) The second NRP winner was Sao Rany, who must be savoring his victory over so many FUNCINPEC regulars who did not remain loyal to Ranariddh in the October 2006 putsch led by Nhiek Bunchhay and are now sidelined. Sao Rany led the NRP ticket in Prey Veng and won for the party almost as many votes as HRP there. Sao Rany is a close confidante of Ranariddh. New HRP Comes on Strong, But Not as Strong as Expected -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Khem Sokha will lead HRP with his National Assembly seat from Kampong Cham. HRP was expected to win at least one seat, but there was no confidence that it would pull in more. Khem Sokha apparently believed his own propaganda that HRP would win big and appears to be disappointed that HRP took only 6.6 percent of the national vote and three seats. Consequently, Khem Sokha is protesting the election outcome, but has chosen not to file any official complaints with the National Election Committee. (COMMENT: A strong sign that he is angling for a coalition position with CPP. END COMMENT.) One of the other two HRP candidates, Mr. Ou Chanrith, with a seat in Kandal, is a Cambodian-American from Fresno California well and favorably known to the Pol/Ec Section. Ou Chanrith was formerly a teacher and had worked hard to promote education among Southern California's Cambodian youth, who were prone to drop out and join youth gangs. As HRP spokesperson, he helped shape the HRP image and brand, and would not relent when critics said the party should drop its name. ¶5. (SBU) Veteran MP and Kampong Cham native Keo Remy was PHNOM PENH 00000629 002 OF 002 about 2,000 votes shy of carrying a Phnom Penh seat for HRP and will now sit on the sidelines unless HRP can manage to join a government coalition. Keo Remy was formerly with FUNCINPEC, then moved to SRP, but bolted for HRP when, he says, he saw that he could not enter the inner SRP circle. HRP also just missed gaining seats in Takeo and Kampong Speu (see para 8). Something Blue: Sam Rainsy -------------- ¶6. (SBU) SRP is returning 17 veteran members of parliament, including Sam Rainsy (Kampong Cham) and Tioulong Samaura (Phnom Penh) and former National Assembly committee heads Son Chhay and Yim Sovann. Nine new members include Ms. Ly Sreyvina, a long-time SRP supporter and successful medical doctor with a string of clinics, who takes one of SRP's five Phnom Penh seats. Having lost one seat in Phnom Penh, SRP gained an additional seat in Takeo and took one each in Kampong Chnang and Kratie, for a net gain of two now totaling 26 seats. Kratie is a new electoral district for SRP. With 21.9 percent of the national vote, the SRP mirrored its performance of 2003, when it obtained 21.87 percent. The more seasoned party secured more strategically useful votes to obtain more seats in the province-by-province competition. ¶7. (SBU) However, some SRP contacts at party headquarters were visibly upset that they did not do better and this may reflect the losses of the likes of Cambodian-Americans Marty Seng (Svay Rieng) and Teav Vannol (Kampong Cham). Seng, the brother of CSD head Theary Seng, lost by a margin of just a few thousand votes. (COMMENT: We wonder if the SRP protest against the results -- still unbuttressed by solid evidence -- isn't meant more to answer overseas queries about campaign contributions as well as to build an opposition coalition in the new parliament. END COMMENT.) The Missed Opportunity: A "Coalition Bonus" -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Based on extensive sample-based polling of voters last year, IRI had predicted that if the main opposition parties had joined in a coalition they would gain extra seats. The "coalition bonus" as they called it was predicted to be substantial. According to post's calculations of the 2008 election results, if SRP and HRP had joined forces they would have netted an additional four seats. If all of the major opposition parties had joined forces -- SRP, HRP, FUNCINPEC, and HRP -- they would have increased their parliamentary seat holdings by 17 over and above the sum of their individual party seat allocations in the July 27 election. In the latter case, CPP would have been left with just 77 seats, less than the 83 needed in the 123-seat National Assembly to carry a two-thirds vote on crucial issues such as constitutional amendments or stripping an MP of parliamentary immunity. IRI had correctly predicted a grand coalition could have had synergies that the individual competing parties do not. Furthermore, in some of the close vote counts noted above, capturing back the split votes would have put candidates over the top. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) It is ironic that the opposition parties only finally came together in an ad-hoc coalition when the election was done and the reality stood before them that they had eaten away at each other, province by province. The grand coalition that could have offered the Cambodian people a different vision -- to tackle corruption and promote key economic sector development, revitalize education and restore trust in a failing health system -- now stands in front of the people to grouse about results that were for the most part their own doing. Given this reality, it is unlikely the opposition will maintain its current solidarity. There is already talk of "two FUNCINPECs" and of Nhiek Bunchhay joining the CPP. In conversations with opposition leaders, post will suggest that performing a more constructive role in the National Assembly might be one goal for the opposition to serve its voters and promote Cambodia's development. MUSSOMELI