CHEVRON DOWNGRADES PETROLEUM ESTIMATES IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PHNOM PENH 000128 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, EEB/ESC/IEC--KOPP, INR STATE PLEASE PASS TO OPIC FOR PEREIRA AND FRANTZ STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR FOR BISBEE COMMERCE FOR ITA TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF EAST ASIA--CHUN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EPET ECON PGOV CB SUBJECT: CHEVRON DOWNGRADES PETROLEUM ESTIMATES IN CAMBODIAN WATERS, LOOKS TO OVERLAPPING CLAIMS AREA (C-AL7-02497) REF: 06 PHNOM PENH 2039 ¶1. (U) This cable contains sensitive and proprietary business information. It is sensitive but unclassified (SBU) and not for distribution via the internet. ¶2. (SBU) Summary: Chevron's analysis of Block A, the offshore oil block widely believed to have the most heavily endowed oil reserves in Cambodia, has shown that the area is much less promising than initially believed and probably not even profitable if exploited on its own. However, Chevron General Manager for Exploration Gerry Flaherty believes that the Overlapping Claims Area (OCA),the disputed waters between Cambodia and Thailand, is "one of the best areas for exploration in the world." Chevron and other oil and non-oil companies are beginning to cooperate on a strategy to encourage Cambodia and Thailand to resolve their differences over the OCA and reach a solution which will allow for exploration and exploitation. The onset of significant oil revenue now looks to be delayed past earlier estimates of 2010 or 2011, as Chevron seems unlikely to move ahead quickly with Block A development and other companies lag 2-3 years behind Chevron in the exploration process. Given Cambodia's long list of legislative and other preparations needed before oil revenues trickle in, this delay is likely good news for the Cambodian people, and for revenue accountability. End Summary. Rumors of Block A Petroleum Bonanza Greatly Exaggerated -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Flaherty began his January 18 discussion with Econoff by addressing the question on everyone's minds: How much oil is there, and how much revenue does Cambodia stand to gain? Flaherty was clearly uncomfortable with public discussions of potential oil flows, saying that a 2003 quote by a Chevron partner, LG Caltex, that there "could be as much as 400 million barrels" in Block A had fueled unrelenting speculation and questions about potential oil flows and revenues. However, the oil executive agreed to summarize the latest data for the embassy, and explained that Block A--which is widely viewed as the best resourced of all of Cambodia's off-shore blocks--has much less recoverable oil than was first thought. ¶4. (SBU) Initial projections and plans for Block A were based on the assumption that the Khmer Trough, which lies beneath Cambodian waters, would be similar in geology and resources to the Pattani Basin, which is largely in Thai waters. Petroleum deposits in the Pattani Basin are concentrated and relatively easy to access, leading oil companies to build multiple wells around a central processing platform. However, data from 15 exploratory wells show that the Khmer Trough lacks sufficient source rock to get similar flows, and the petroleum deposits are more dispersed and harder to access. Flaherty estimated that there could be as many as 500 million barrels in Block A, but with recovery rates of only 10-20 percent, development of Block A alone was unlikely to be profitable. The block could likely produce 15,000 barrels per day, but would cost USD 500 million to develop. This is a dramatic reversal from Chevron's original plans to build several wells around a central processing platform in Block A, as they did in the Gulf of Thailand. (Note: Flaherty downplayed expectations for Block A more than a year ago in a conversation with Ambassador (Ref A), but this is the first time we have heard that production in Block A alone would not be profitable. End Note.) ¶5. (SBU) Flaherty added that, in contrast to the Pattani Basin, which holds more natural gas than oil, the Khmer Trough is mostly oil with relatively little gas. He described the Khmer Trough's mix of resources as more advantageous from a commercial standpoint, but not significant enough to make exploitation of that block alone profitable. Gunning for the Overlapping Claims Area -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Chevron is now most interested in gaining rights to a block in the Overlapping Claims Area (OCA),an area of disputed sovereignty between Thailand and Cambodia, Flaherty PHNOM PENH 00000128 002 OF 003 revealed. While much of the Pattani Basin is in Thai waters, one-third of the basin is in the OCA and this area may hold as much as a "couple hundred million" barrels of oil and six to eight trillion cubic feet of natural gas--an impressive deposit. Flaherty was as excited about the OCA as he was downbeat about the current Cambodian blocks, saying that the OCA was now "one of the best areas for exploration in the world" and its revenues could "revolutionize Cambodia." (Note: Thailand and Cambodia will need to negotiate a formula for OCA exploitation and work out other legal details or otherwise overcome the sovereignty dispute before even exploration begins. End Note.) ¶7. (SBU) Flaherty revealed that he was scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Hun Sen on January 29, and planned to use that meeting to press for a block in the Overlapping Claims Area. (Comment: We have heard through a third party that the meeting occurred and that the Cambodians felt it "went well." We will report on the meeting septel when we are able to get a readout. End Comment.) Cambodia and Thailand have made competing tentative assignments to blocks in the OCA. Companies clearly see a value in pressing each government to gain access to the blocks in preparation for eventual OCA dispute resolution. Cambodia has divided the OCA into four areas. Area 1 was granted to ConocoPhilips, Area 2 to Japanese firm Idemitsu, Area 3 to BHP and Shell, and Area 4 to BHP and Inpex of Japan. Areas 1 and 2 were granted indefinitely, but the exploration rights to Areas 3 and 4 expired in October 2007 and have yet to be re-negotiated or re-assigned, according to Flaherty. ¶8. (SBU) While Chevron's real interest is in developing the OCA, the company plans to maintain its rights to Block A and continue exploration there, albeit at a more moderate pace. Flaherty stated that the Cambodian government is invested in Chevron's exploration of Block A--likely the most heavily endowed block in undisputed Cambodian waters. Publicly abandoning their interest in Block A would be a big disappointment to the Cambodian government, Flaherty stated. Moreover, while Block A extraction might not be commercially viable alone, in combination with a larger operation in the OCA, the economies of scale could make it profitable. Other Companies Hoping for a Drop of the Action -------------- -- ¶9. (SBU) Chevron is not the only company hoping to get in on the action in the OCA, Flaherty noted. Both large, established oil companies, including Total, British Gas, and BHP, and smaller oil companies--essentially speculators--are interested in claims in the OCA. Flaherty noted that while the smaller companies might initially seem unlikely to be awarded an exploration contract, the Cambodian National Petroleum Authority (CNPA) might award full or partial rights to these companies, many of which have links to the Cambodian elite, "if there are financial incentives." Chevron's Sunny Outlook on OCA Resolution -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Flaherty said that he felt that a number of signs pointed to potential to resolve the OCA sovereignty issue quickly. The potential for political unrest to disrupt Burma's delivery of natural gas to Thailand and rising oil prices worldwide are hurting both Cambodian and Thai economic growth, he said. Meanwhile, valuable petroleum reserves sit untapped. For the first time, Thailand's latest master energy plan included petroleum from the OCA as a resource it would tap in the future. Flaherty said that it did not make sense for the two countries to ignore the OCA sovereignty issue while pumping so much money into buying foreign oil and gas. ¶11. (SBU) Meanwhile, Chevron and the companies with licenses in the OCA have taken preliminary steps to begin coordinating efforts to encourage resolution of the OCA sovereignty issue. Flaherty said that the group, which included six oil companies as well as five other firms with rights to operate mining, ship building, or other enterprises in the area, met for the first time recently in Bangkok. He described the meeting as productive, saying that they made progress in developing common messages. PHNOM PENH 00000128 003 OF 003 A Look Inside the Cambodian Government's Petroleum Policy -------------- -------------- ¶12. (SBU) When asked, Flaherty described briefly some of the internal politics that he and Chevron's advisor to the CNPA, Mick McWalters, had witnessed within the RGC. Flaherty said that Te Doung Tara, CNPA Director General, and Ho Vichet, CNPA Vice President, were rivals, each controlling a separate team of officials. Each group is working on its own version of the draft petroleum law, with the key differences being potential incentives offered to industry and the size of the government's share of revenues. Nonetheless, Flaherty predicted that a draft petroleum law would be before Deputy Prime Minister Sok An "within months." (Note: He did not specify which team's law he thought was likely to go to Sok An, nor whether elements from each would be included in the final. End Note.) ¶13. (SBU) The oil executive said that the CNPA had made "lots of progress" in understanding what policy actions need to be taken in order to start oil production. He hoped that, in the future, McWalters might be able to help facilitate the CNPA's collaboration with other ministries. (Note: Chevron says that McWalters is an independent consultant who, although paid by Chevron, is providing independent advice to the CNPA. However, Chevron plans to end their funding in April and hopes that a donor--perhaps the World Bank or the Asian Development Bank--will step in to fund McWalters' work, making it easier for him to be seen as advocating for Cambodia's best interest. End Note.) Flaherty noted that the CNPA holds on to petroleum information very tightly, not even sharing with other Cambodian government ministries. Instead, these ministries rely on donors for information, which is not uniformly reliable. (Comment: The CNPA's information is likely largely coming from Chevron, as the CNPA has very limited resources to conduct or analyze studies. Flaherty said that they have shared numbers about petroleum reserves "in general terms" with the CNPA. End Comment.) ¶14. (SBU) In response to Econoff's questions about a potential state-owned oil company in Cambodia, Flaherty described this as an "aspiration." He suggested that Cambodia look to Thailand's PTT and PTTEP as examples, but said that Cambodia's more ambitious hopes of something similar to the Kuwait Oil Company or Malaysia's Petronas just distracted the CNPA from the real issues. Comment: Longer Wait A Blessing in Disguise? -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Chevron's news that tapping Block A deposits is not likely to be profitable on its own comes after months of obvious efforts by the government to tone down expectations that Block A will be making a big payoff soon. The international community seems uncertain as to whether the CNPA's new caution is an attempt to downplay donor concerns or an accurate reflection of new data. Meanwhile, neither the Cambodian government nor the donors have focused on the OCA, even though Te Doung Tara himself told a 2001 conference that there were estimates of "up to 11 trillion cubic feet of natural gas" and undetermined amounts of oil in the OCA. ¶16. (SBU) With Chevron taking a slow approach to Block A while it tries to pursue its real interest in the OCA, oil revenue now seems likely to flow later than the 2010 or 2011 projections. Chevron is well ahead of its competitors in exploring Cambodia's petroleum reserves. While other companies have begun to explore in their blocks, they are two to three years behind Chevron. Meanwhile, exploration in the OCA has not even started due to the sovereignty dispute. Thus, Cambodia will continue to feel the pinch of high oil and gas prices for a longer period of time. However, there's a significant silver lining: Cambodia will gain some of the time it needs to strengthen the CNPA, pass a Petroleum Law and Anti-Corruption Law, join the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, and take other steps to prepare for looming oil revenue. While it appears that Cambodia now has the time to do some or all of these things, whether it has the political will to do so remains to be seen. MUSSOMELI