FATA: BAJAUR/MOHMAND -- POST-EID PLANS, BUT ARE THERE ENOUGH

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000531 E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018 TAGS: PTER MOPS SNAR PGOV PK SUBJECT: FATA: BAJAUR/MOHMAND -- POST-EID PLANS, BUT ARE THERE ENOUGH FORCES? CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne M. Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate Peshawar, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) After a pause over the Eid holidays, Frontier Corps is gearing up for continuing operations in Bajaur and Mohmand. Gains in Bajaur have been hard won but remain fragile. Bajaur militants, although damaged, retain the ability to hit security forces and government supporters. Peshawar contacts express concern that many militants have merely hidden in the mountains waiting for the security presence in Bajaur to ease as attention turns south to Mohmand and beyond. Sufficient Pakistani force levels to "clear and hold" remains the core challenge for stabilization of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). Based on the security trends of the past two years, our assessment is that there are not enough appropriate forces to hold Bajaur, expand into Mohmand, and handle the FATA and NWFP's other trouble spots such as Swat (septel). End Summary. Bajaur -- Hard Won Gains -------------- ¶2. (C) Since operations began in August in Bajaur, Pakistani forces have achieved hard won gains with the help of lashkars (local tribal militias). In early December, Frontier Corps began consolidating its position at Nawagai, approximately 10 km west of the Nawa Pass on the Afghan border. Nawagai also controls the road south into Mohmand where Pakistani military have been conducting air strikes over the past month. Frontier Corps Commandant General Tariq Khan told PO that the people in Mohmand were "waiting" for the arrival of government forces. (Note: There are some permanently based Frontier Corps in Mohmand but primarily at the agency's capital Ghallanai.) Post-Eid Operations -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Peshawar-based U.S. military sources, Frontier Corps is delaying until late December a push west to squeeze the militants along the Bajaur/Kunar border. Operations to clear the lines of communication southward from Nawagai into Mohmand are taking priority and are slated to begin o/a December ¶17. In recent weeks, there have been reports that Mohmand's Haleemzai tribe is openly supporting the government and calling on other tribes in the agency "to root out" militants. The Haleemzai have reportedly handed over to the government 70 "wanted" individuals. Limited to Lines of Communication -------------- ¶4. (C) Much of the military progress in Bajaur thus far has been limited to re-taking the "lines of communication" -- roads and key towns such as Loyesam and Nawagai. FATA Secretariat Additional Chief Secretary Habibullah Khan emphasized to PO that mobility is the militants' strength in the FATA's difficult terrain. Other Peshawar contacts worry that Bajaur's militants will hold out in the mountains as they did in Swat, waiting for the security presence to ease up. ¶5. (C) General Tariq told PO that security forces must have air mobility to match the militants' capabilities. Without that tool, security forces will remain limited to the lines of communication, he said. The Frontier Corps Commander remarked that his troops also need to dominate space through aggressive patrolling. At present, the militants know the terrain better than the security forces, he added. Bajaur Militants Still Able To Strike -------------- ¶6. (C) Although limited in scope and damage, Bajaur's militants have demonstrated a continuing ability to strike back. On December 13, according to local press reports, insurgents fired rockets on the home of Salarzai tribal lashkar leader Malik Kamal Khan. No casualties were reported. Rockets landed on Bajaur's capital Khar, causing some property damage, but no injuries. On December 12 in Nawagai, insurgents opened fire on a Frontier Corps post and later attacked the house of pro-government tribal leader Maulana Guldad Khan, killing Khan's brother. Khar was hit with rockets on December 12, but no casualties or damage was reported. On November 20, a suicide bomber attacked a mosque in Mahmond tehsil, killing nine, including a lashkar leader. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Frontier Corps has 58 wings (each wing is approximately 600 soldiers) -- many of which are under strength, amounting to an overall deficiency of at least 7,000 soldiers. On top of rebuilding these under strength wings, General Tariq is asking for an additional four wings. While on paper these numbers may seem high, the difficulty of the terrain and the multiplicity of troubled areas have spread Frontier Corps thin. The Pakistani army, although present in large numbers, is primarily a Punjabi force that operates from large bases and because of language and cultural differences is limited in its ability to interact with the Pashtun tribal populations. These shortfalls have meant that FC forces have been unable to cycle out for rest and training. With the Waziristans a continuing concern and other hot spots including the Peshawar area, Khyber, Swat, Kohat, and Orakzai, pressing for infusions of security forces, Pakistan's core challenge for stabilization of the FATA and the NWFP remains the buildup of sufficient force levels, across the Frontier Corps, Frontier Constabulary, and Police to "clear and hold. TRACY