FATA: BAJAUR AIR STRIKES CONTINUE, CIVILIAN POPULATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000428 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/15/2018 TAGS: MOPS PTER PGOV EAID PK SUBJECT: FATA: BAJAUR AIR STRIKES CONTINUE, CIVILIAN POPULATION FLEEING REF: PESHAWAR 426 CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne M. Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate Peshawar, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Governor Ghani relayed that operations in Bajaur are still "hot but moving in the right direction." He expects air strikes on militant positions to continue for another 4-5 days. Senior al-Qai'da leader Abu Saeed al-Masri was reportedly killed during one of the air strikes in Bajaur. (Note: Post has no further confirmation of this claim. End Note.) The Governor and NWFP Chief Minister Hoti separately told us that thousands of Bajaur residents are fleeing the area, primarily to Dir and Malakand districts, and asked for help. The Governor is vowing to keep the pressure on in Bajaur. Multiple other hot spots of persistent militant activity and sectarian violence, particularly Swat and Kurram at the moment, may make consolidating and sustaining any government gains in Bajaur difficult. End Summary. Air Strikes in Bajaur to Continue -------------- ¶2. (C) The Governor told departing and incoming Deputy Chiefs of Mission and ODRP Chief on August 13 that the bombardment of militant positions in Bajaur that began over the August 8-10 weekend will continue for the next 4-5 days. Militants were trying to open up "fronts" in other areas, but government forces, the Governor said, would remain focused on Bajaur. ¶3. (C) Numbers of dead and injured among security forces and civilians, he said, has been relatively low. According to the Governor, approximately 500 militants have been killed in the bombardment campaign. (Note: Most public estimates we have seen put the militant casualty count in the range of 150-200.) Many of the militants, the Governor commented, were from outside the area -- Wazirs, Mehsuds, Uzbeks, and Chechens. Ghani passed on that senior al-Qai'da leader Abu Saeed al-Masri may have been among those killed. (Note: 11th Corps has passed a similar report to ODRP/Peshawar.) Attempting to Block Militant Movements -------------- ¶4. (C) 11th Corps told ODRP/Peshawar on August 12 that security forces have cordoned off the area around Khar by cutting the main roads west to the Nawa Pass, south to Mohmand and east to Dir. 11th Corps has asked the Regional Command East of ISAF at Bagram to assist in blocking militant resupply and reinforcement into Bajaur from Afghanistan's Kunar Province. No date has been set for ground operations to commence. Families Fleeing Bajaur for NWFP -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Governor and NWFP Chief Minister Hoti separately told Embassy officials that Bajaur residents were fleeing into the NWFP, primarily Dir and Malakand districts. There are local press reports that militants in Bajaur's most western districts are preventing civilians from leaving in order to use them as "human shields." Hoti estimated that the number of those displaced at more than 10,000. The government, the Chief Minister said, has asked the federal government for help in setting up camps with tents and food packages. Both officials welcomed the possibility of USG assistance. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) We are exploring options for assisting the government with the Bajaur IDPs as well as follow up in Bajaur at the conclusion of military operations in the area. The multiplying hot spots of militant activity and sectarian violence continue to tax the ability of government forces to respond and to hold territory. TRACY