(U) Secretary Rice's May 30, 2008 lunch meeting

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PARTO 060602 (Note: the unique message record number (MRN) has been modified. The original MRN was 08 PARTO 000002, which duplicates a previous PARTO telegram number.) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018 TAGS: OVIP RICE CONDOLEEZZA PREL MARR NATO ECON SENV, KPKO, AF, RU, SU, ZI, CN, XA, XQ, IC SUBJECT: (U) Secretary Rice's May 30, 2008 lunch meeting with Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde ¶1. (U) Classified by: Kenneth Merten, Deputy Executive Secretary, S/ES, Department of State. Reason 1.4.(d) ¶2. (U) May 30, 12:15 p.m., Reykjavik, Iceland. ¶3. (U) Participants: United States The Secretary Ambassador Carol van Voorst Under Secretary Reuben Jeffery III, E Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried, EUR Assistant Secretary Sean McCormack, PA Chief of Staff Brian Gunderson Embassy Reykjavik DCM Neil Klopfenstein Political Officer Brad Evans, Notetaker Iceland Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde Foreign Minister Ingibjorg Solrun Gisladottir Gretar Mar Sigurdsson, Permanent Secretary of State Bolli Thor Bollason, Permanent Secretary at the PM's Office Sturla Sigurjonsson, Foreign Policy Advisor to the PM Greta Gunnarsdottir, Director General for International and Security Affairs Kristrun Heimisdottir, Political Advisor to the FM Greta Ingthorsdottir, Political Advisor to the PM Thorir Ibsen, Director, MFA Defense Department Elin Flygenring, Chief of Protocol Jon Egill Egilsson, Director for Natural Resources and Environmental Affairs Nikulas Hannigan, Director for International Affairs ¶4. (C) SUMMARY: Secretary Rice, Prime Minister Haarde, and Foreign Minister Gisladottir reviewed Icelandic initiatives in defense and security as well as developments in the High North. Russia poses a challenge, particularly in areas of the former Soviet Union. PM Haarde announced Icelandic plans to contribute to the U.K.-sponsored NATO helicopter trust fund in Afghanistan. The Secretary outlined some of the challenges in Africa today; Iceland is looking for ways to play a helpful role on the continent. Attendees agreed that both the United States and Icelandic economies have suffered from tighter global credit markets, but the worst seems to be over. END SUMMARY. -------------- DEFENSE RELATIONS WITH U.S. AND NATO -------------- ¶5. (C) Prime Minister Haarde began by reviewing Iceland's efforts to manage its peacetime defense in the 18 months since the U.S. military withdrawal from Iceland. The U.S.-Iceland defense relationship is still the cornerstone of Iceland's defense policy. At the same time, Haarde's government has focused on five key areas. Iceland's new national Defense Agency will have responsibility for managing day-to-day issues and operational relations with NATO, and will start work on June 1. The new NATO air policing mission, with a French deployment currently in Iceland and a U.S. rotation scheduled for fall 2008, has filled a key security need, and Haarde expressed his appreciation for U.S. support and the helpful role played by NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer. Peacetime security cooperation with neighboring states is moving ahead steadily as with Iceland signed security MOUs with Norway, Denmark, the UK, and, later this summer, Canada. Iceland is maintaining or increasing its NATO contributions in Afghanistan and to the NATO Security Investment Program, and is exploring a contribution to the Estonian-hosted Cyber Defense Center. A government- appointed committee will provide Iceland's first comprehensive threat assessment this fall, and Haarde expects that this will shed some light on Iceland's way forward. The Secretary said she was glad to hear how well things had gone for Iceland in defense and security and suggested that as Iceland's new defense institutions gain experience it would be useful to review bilateral defense relationship to gauge the need for further revision. -------------- ARCTIC SECURITY AND THE HIGH NORTH -------------- ¶6. (SBU) PM Haarde drew the Secretary's attention to Iceland's sponsorship of a NATO conference on security in the High North in January 2009, and passed on a concept paper. NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer is scheduled to be the keynote speaker, and Iceland is anticipating high-level participation from Allies, including Norwegian PM Store. Secretary Rice pledged that the United States would be well represented at the event, although timing was a problem. ¶7. (C) Secretary Rice noted the U.S. awareness of developments in the Arctic and that we were still shaping our approach to the region. Under Secretary Jeffery detailed the broad range of issues that Arctic policy must encompass, including energy, transportation, environmental, and traditional security affairs. PM Haarde agreed, pointing to the expected increase in petroleum and gas shipments to the United States as Arctic waterways become more open. FM Gisladottir urged that the Arctic Council be the venue for all discussions on these matters, and lamented that the recently concluded Danish- sponsored Arctic Ocean Conference in Greenland did not include all Arctic states. The Secretary noted our support for the Arctic Council, but asked if Iceland was addressing High North issues in any other fora. PM Haarde pointed to the January 2009 conference as evidence of Iceland's efforts to focus NATO on the region. -------------- RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA -------------- ¶8. (C) PM Haarde observed that Russian activities in the Arctic are of political-military concern as well as an energy security issue. Haarde described the significant increase in Russian military flights near Iceland, adding that the flight profiles now tend to circumnavigate the island rather than simply touch on Icelandic airspace as during the Cold War. He noted appreciatively President Bush's comments on Russian overflights at the NATO Bucharest Summit, and said that Icelandic inquiries to the Russians had produced little other than the Russian Ambassador in Reykjavik's televised comments that Iceland should "get used to it." These flights can also pose a risk to civil aviation, particularly given the age of the Russian aircraft. The Secretary, referring to similar flights near Alaska and U.S. assets in the Pacific, said that the U.S. tries not to overreact to these actions but we do let the Russians know they are unhelpful. ¶9. (C) Asked for her assessment of Russian politics, the Secretary said the United States is still getting used to "Prime Minister Putin," and it is not yet clear how he and Medvedev will interact. Medvedev is of a new generation, and due to his good connections with governors around the country may have a power base distinct from Putin. Russian foreign policy will not change, however. They have been helpful on Iran and North Korea, somewhat helpful in the Middle East, and good on counterterrorism. Anything that seems to touch the former Soviet empire such as Georgia, however, is sensitive. This puts us in a difficult position with the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Georgia -- Allies cannot let the frozen conflict in Abkhazia be the sole reason to keep Georgia out, as this gives Russia an incentive to be unhelpful. PM Haarde predicted that MAP will be approved at the December NATO meeting. He observed that Icelandic-Russian relations were generally good, apart from the overflights issue, though the Russians can be difficult to understand. -------------- NATO IN AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The Secretary thanked PM Haarde for Iceland's support of NATO operations in Afghanistan. Haarde said Iceland was planning to shift funding from support for NATO/Afghan National Army airlift to the UK-sponsored Helicopter Trust Fund. He described the meeting in Bucharest on Afghanistan as exceptional for the broad consensus among all Allies and the international community on the way forward. -------------- AFRICA -------------- ¶11. (C) Haarde asked the Secretary for her views on developments across Africa, commenting that although Iceland has not historically had a strong presence there, FM Gisladottir is putting more emphasis on relations with African states. Secretary Rice described a wide variance among nations on the continent, with some high performers such as Botswana, Tanzania, and Mozambique doing well in combating HIV/AIDS, cooperating with the United States on Millennium Challenge goals, and managing conflicts in Liberia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Zimbabwe is a galling problem, and South Africa has greatly disappointed as a regional power in helping the situation there. Haarde and Gisladottir agreed with the Secretary that the June 27 runoff election in Zimbabwe seems unlikely to resolve the political conflict and may well lead to more violence. ¶12. (C) Gisladottir observed the tendency among European states to think of Africa as a "development problem" rather than focusing on political dialogue. The Secretary agreed, pointing out that we need the high performers in Africa to take on responsibility regionally and worldwide, as well as within their own countries. In that vein, the United States is hoping to see the African Union develop its crisis response abilities. PM Haarde expressed concern over growing Chinese influence in the region, which appears to be entirely resource-targeted and shows no concern for political development. The Secretary agreed, but said that Africans themselves are suspicious of the very mercantilist approach by the Chinese. On Darfur, Secretary Rice described the tenuous state of peacekeeping efforts and probed Icelandic interest in supporting the equipment needs of contributing African nations. Gisladottir said her ministry was looking into this possibility. -------------- ECONOMIC OUTLOOK -------------- ¶13. (U) U/S Jeffery outlined the current economic situation in the United States and the USG's response. The consensus is that we are near the end of the downturn, but exactly how near is still a question. The long- and mid-term outlooks are good. In the short term, regional dips in real estate will still drive the situation downward, but rising exports will help to counter that trend. In response, the Federal Reserve has been far more active than the past in adding liquidity. Similarly, the United States has enjoyed good cooperation with other central banks to ensure liquidity in the international markets. ¶14. (SBU) PM Haarde replied that Iceland has also suffered from this liquidity squeeze. Combined with a larger macroeconomic adjustment the government was already expecting, this unexpected crunch put a lot of pressure on the Icelandic economy. Haarde said that for a while he felt as though Iceland's small currency was the weakest animal in the herd, being targeted by predatory hedge funds and speculators. However, he believes Iceland is through the worst and that things will continue to stabilize. U/S Jeffery agreed that the fundamental elements of the Icelandic economy appeared sound. RICE