SUDAN/KENYA/RWANDA: MFA DAS PROVIES OVERVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000081 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2018 TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PINS PHUM SU CD CT KE RW FR SUBJECT: SUDAN/KENYA/RWANDA: MFA DAS PROVIES OVERVIEW REF: PARIS 72 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 (b/d ). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA DAS-equivalent Helene Le Gal (Central and East Africa) on January 11 said that France was highly concerned about renewed Chad-Sudan fighting but that the arrival in February of the EU's PKO in Chad and C.A.R. could help ease tensions. France renewed Abdulwahid el-Nur's residency permit at the end of December, but only for one month, and continues to urge him to join the peace process. France, along with other EU members, considers the recent elections in Kenya to have been massively fraudulent, and is considering suspending assistance programs. Le Gal confirmed the arrest of Rwandan genocide suspect Marcel Bivugabagabo but cautioned that extradition could be a long process, with no guarantee that he would be returned to Rwanda. She said that France remains open to normalizing relations with Rwanda but that the Rwandans do not seem willing to move so long as former Judge Bruguiere's report, accusing a number of Rwandans, including President Kagame, of involvement in the 1994 genocide, continues to stand. END SUMMARY. SUDAN ¶2. (C) MFA DAS-equivalent Helene Le Gal on January 11 reviewed a number of subjects within her area of responsibility, beginning with Sudan. She said that France was highly concerned about the renewal of fighting between Chad and Sudan, which was following "the classic pattern" -- GOC forces going after Chadian rebels in Sudan, and Sudanese forces opposing Sudanese rebels in Chad. What was new and disturbing, however, was Chad's aerial bombardment of supposed Chadian rebel camps well within Sudan. When asked how Chad had acquired the means to carry out such attacks, Le Gal said that it had used its "oil money" to buy or rent the services of "the usual suspects" in terms of arms suppliers. She noted that JEM was taking over relatively broad areas of western Darfur and was benefiting (perhaps not uncoincidentally) from the Chadian aerial bombardments. Le Gal said that the only recent positive development related to Sudan was the easing of North-South tensions. She added that the arrival in February of the EU's peacekeeping mission in Chad and C.A.R. would have a deterrent effect that could ease tension and perhaps reduce the level of fighting. ¶3. (C) Le Gal said that France had, reluctantly, extended Darfur rebel leader Abdulwahid el-Nur's French residency permit when it expired on December 28, but that the extension was for one month only. He was told at the time of the renewal that further extensions would be contingent on his joining the peace talks. However, Le Gal noted that the peace talks were moribund and that, at the end of January, Abdulwahid could, not unfairly, claim that it was impossible for him to join peace talks that did not exist and that his residency should be extended again. Le Gal said that in such a case, the GOF probably would extend his permit. She commented that Abdulwahid continued to show no signs of cooperating with others, instead relying on his usual mantra that "everyone should follow me." KENYA ¶4. (C) Le Gal said that EU member states were united in their belief that the recent Kenyan elections were massively fraudulent and that the results announced were contrary to the actual vote. MFA desk officer Thierry Caboche participated in the EU observer mission and Le Gal said that he and other observers had no doubt that the "election was stolen." Le Gal said that all EU member states were deeply disappointed in this development as Kenya had had such a good reputation, with an apparent entrenched commitment to democracy. Now, she reported, the EU was considering suspending some forms of economic assistance. She said that France would likely join EU consensus, noting that "we have a fair number of projects in Kenya." She regretted this but said that Europe rightfully had held Kenya to a high standard. "If we 'punish' other less developed countries for their 'errors,' we can hardly let Kenya get away with what has happened," Le Gal commented. She added that a recount of the vote was no longer plausible; too much time had elapsed to allow for confidence in the integrity of the ballots. If Kenya wanted to do something, "the only thing would be to hold completely new elections," she observed. PARIS 00000081 002 OF 002 RWANDA ¶5. (C) Le Gal confirmed the recent arrest in the Toulouse area of former Rwandan Lieutenant Colonel Marcel Bivugabagabo, who was one of nine Rwandans supposedly living in France named in a September 2007 warrant forwarded by Rwanda to France. Le Gal said that the arrest was a good step in terms of France-Rwanda relations, but she expressed doubt that Bivugabagabo would be returned soon to Rwanda. His case would be heard in court and she cautioned that a judge could plausibly conclude that Bivugabagabo faced a high chance of persecution if he returned to Rwanda, even though Rwanda had abolished the death penalty. His case could, therefore, take a long time, with no assurance that he would be extradited. ¶6. (C) Le Gal said that France remained ready to normalize relations with Rwanda, and so too, to a limited extent, did Rwanda. The obstacle that the Rwandans could not overcome, however, was then-Judge Bruguiere's report on the 1994 genocide and his recommendation that a number of senior Rwandans be either prosecuted or investigated for involvement. President Kagame was among this group, and he remained, in Le Gal's view, adamantly opposed to improving relations so long as Bruguiere's report continued to carry legal weight, which it did. Addressed in part to the UN, the report did not receive much in the way of a response by then-SYG Kofi Annan, but Kagame was not assuaged. Le Gal believed that he would continue to resist efforts to improve relations until something was done by the GOF to negate or nullify the report. Unfortunately, Le Gal noted, the matter rested with the judiciary, over which the GOF had only limited control, a point the Rwandans understood but had trouble stomaching. She thus concluded that despite French willingness, relations with Rwanda were likely to improve slowly, if at all. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm PEKALA