FRENCH PRESIDENCY THINKING ON LEBANON AND SYRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000624

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/DEMOPOLOUS/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PTER FR LE SY
SUBJECT: FRENCH PRESIDENCY THINKING ON LEBANON AND SYRIA
POST-DAMASCUS SUMMIT

REF: PARIS 572

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Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4. (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: The recent Arab summit in Damascus was a
"failure" but the French still have no ideas about how to
move the situation in Lebanon forward, according to French
Presidency NEA adviser Boris Boillon. He told us April 1
that the status quo seems to suit everyone for different
reasons, notwithstanding the ever-present risk that something
could happen to cause a breakdown of the fragile stability
that currently reigns. The fault primarily lies with
Lebanon's irresponsible political class, Boillon contended,
and France will focus on supporting the GOL led by PM Siniora
and maintaining pressure on the "spoilers" (Syria and Iran),
including via support for the Special Tribunal. Boillon
complained that isolating Syria has proven impossible on the
Arab or European levels. The presence of the French
ambassador at the opening and closing ceremonies of the Arab
summit had not been coordinated with the Elysee and may have
been ill-advised but probably inevitable given France's de
facto role as representative of the EU Presidency in
Damascus. Boillion checked with his counterpart at the MFA
to confirm his understanding that FM Kouchner is not planning
to travel to Beirut in the near future. France is, however,
interested in organizing a meeting on Lebanon on the margins
of the upcoming Iraq neighbors conference in Kuwait. Boillon
contended that France wants to move ahead with creating the
Special Tribunal notwithstanding concerns about the potential
loss of Chapter VII authorities currently available to the
UNIIIC. France would appreciate consultations with us to
discuss the way ahead on Lebanon. End summary


2. (C) The French Presidency's NEA adviser, Boris Boillon,
on April 1 called the Arab summit in Damascus a "failure,
even if the Syrians consider it a success." However, France
has no clear ideas about how to move the situation in Lebanon
forward, despite considerable "reflection" at the MFA and
Elysee. The status quo, according to Boillon, endures
because it satisfies everyone: Hizballah gets to keep its
weapons, Aoun does not have to give up his presidential
ambitions, and, within the majority, Siniora remains as prime
minister while Hariri bides his time until he can take over.
The only ones who are not happy are the Lebanese, but they
are the victims of their irresponsible political class.
Indeed, Boillon used this conversation to savage once more
Lebanon's politicians, all of whom acted like children. He
declared that it was better to isolate and ignore them until
they can act more like adults.


3. (C) We asked whether France considered the status quo
stable. Boillon responded that one of France's main
objectives is to maintain stability as long as the status quo
persists, but the uncomfortable reality is that anything
(most likely a bombing) could happen anytime. The French
view is that at least Syria and Iran currently see the status
quo as preferable. Iran in particular wants Lebanon to stay
calm. Syria, meanwhile, is "in the eye of the hurricane" in
terms of the international community but the status quo
allows it to continue carrying out its business as usual in
Lebanon while playing its usual double game in Iraq and the
Arab/Israeli peace process. France, Boillon continued, sees
the status quo as continuing indefinitely even though it
would rather see things change in Lebanon for the better. He
outlined French objectives as:

--Support for Siniora and the Lebanese government
(essentially a continuation of current policy "somewhat by
default"); and

--Maintaining pressure on the "spoilers," e.g., Syria and
Iran via support for the Special Tribunal and diplomatic
isolation.


4. (C) Boillon acknowledged that diplomatic isolation of
Syria remains extremely problematic. Javier Solana from the
EU did not attend, but it took a lot of pressure to prevent
the president of the European Parliament from attending.
Boillon complained that "even at the level of The Five"
(France, the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain),there was no
consensus on Syria. France and the UK consistently squared
off against the Spain and Italy, with the Germans split

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between Merkel's anti-Syrian proclivities and Steinmeier's
desire to keep the channel open to Damascus. The Arabs
offered no satisfaction either, Boillon lamented. He singled
out the Algerian, Tunisian, UAE, and Qatari leaders for
criticism over their decisions to attend the Damascus summit.
They may have each had specific reasons, but they used the
common denominator concern over the situation in Gaza to
justify their presence. All of this was symptomatic, in
Boillon's eyes, of the profound Arab "malady."


5. (C) We asked Boillon about the presence of the French
ambassador in Damascus at the summit's opening and closing
sessions. Although Boillon justified it in terms of France's
function as the de facto representative of the EU Presidency
in the Syrian capital (and the price France had to pay to
keep the European Parliament's president from attending),he
also indicated that neither the embassy nor the MFA had
cleared the decision to attend with the Elysee. (Comment:
Boillon muttered several times that the French ambassador's
presence had been "stupid" or ill-advised, but he eventually
stuck to justifying it in EU terms. He tried to make clear,
in any case, that it implied no easing of France's tough
political stance in terms of its disapproval of Syria's
interference in Lebanon. End comment)


6. (C) With respect to the MFA's recent suggestion (reftel)
that FM Kouchner might be considering a return to Beirut to
help revive the intra-Lebanese dialogue, Boillon denied any
such intention. He argued that, for one thing, Kouchner was
too busy with other matters to devote time to such a trip.
Boillon further maintained that Kouchner was himself
suffering from "Lebanon fatigue" and disinclined to plunge
back into the fray. The MFA and Elysee had held a working
lunch the previous day that included discussion of Lebanon,
and the idea never came up. To be sure, he phoned his
counterpart at the MFA, Christophe Bigot, and put Bigot on
speakerphone as the two talked. Bigot indeed confirmed that
Kouchner was fresh out of ideas and had no intention to fly
back to Beirut in the near term. The only idea currently in
play (as Boillon had mentioned separately) was holding a
meeting on Lebanon on the margins of the upcoming Iraq
neighbors conference in Kuwait, similar to what happened last
year in Istanbul and at the Palestine donors conference.


7. (C) Regarding the UNIIIC and the Special Tribunal,
Boillon claimed that France was not seeking to delay the
Tribunal's formation. It had been a struggle, but the Gulf
states had ultimately come up with the money necessary to get
things rolling. He despaired of the other EU members
contributing much more than they already had. Boillon said
he understood and appreciated the arguments about the
possible loss of UN Charter Chapter VII authority with the
passage from UNIIIC to the Tribunal but believed France did
not want to lose any further momentum in creating the one
institution France thinks would bring real pressure on Syria.


8. (C) Comment: We are not surprised that the French
remain fresh out of ideas, although the almost complete
readiness to avoid any engagement is quite striking given
Kouchner's previous hyper-activism. It is not clear how to
account for the discrepancy between what the MFA and Elysee
are saying about the UNIIIC/Special Tribunal. Our hunch is
that the Elysee is not as focused on the technicalities but
wants to move forward in the clear absence of many other
meaningful levers over Syria. When we suggested this might
be a good time for renewed Franco/U.S. consultations on
Lebanon, Boillon quickly agreed.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


PEKALA