FRENCH VISION FOR THE UNION FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000350 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018 TAGS: PREL SUBJECT: FRENCH VISION FOR THE UNION FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN PARIS 00000350 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso ns 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 15, Alain Le Roy, Ambassador at Large charged by President Sarkozy with development of the Union for the Mediterranean, presented Pol M-C with the French vision for the initiative. Le Roy, who works under the supervision of influential Sarkozy adviser and speechwriter Henri Guaino, said the French still envision a 25-member Union, with other countries, including the U.S., participating in specific projects as desired. Leading up to the initial summit in July, the French focus is on concrete projects and deliverables for environmental, infrastructure, and economic cooperation. France seeks to create a Union that is results-oriented and light on bureaucracy. However, Le Roy implied that the scope of the Union could be later expanded if its early efforts are successful. END SUMMARY. -------------- WHY A UNION FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN? -------------- ¶2. (C) Le Roy noted that President Sarkozy named at his inauguration the Mediterranean Union as one of his three highest priorities. Le Roy noted that while the U.S. puts 18 to 20 percent of its foreign direct investment into the Western Hemisphere, and Japan does similarly with its "south," Europe puts less than 2 percent into the Mediterranean region. Le Roy also cited an OECD study showing that unemployment will increase along the south and east of the Mediterranean basin, widening the income gap between north and south and destabilizing the region. He noted that while many worthwhile initiatives have been undertaken to combat this trend, more must be done. The Union for the Mediterranean will thus be based in concrete projects and complement existing initiatives such as the Barcelona Process. Le Roy stressed that rather than being a "Mediterranean Union" with ambitions of political integration, the initiative is a "Union for the Mediterranean" focused on progress on projects. He said that since the proposal was introduced by President Sarkozy during his campaign, it has evolved mostly in terms of clarifying that difference. -------------- WHO WILL PARTICIPATE? -------------- ¶3. (C) Le Roy said there are 25 candidates for membership: the 22 Mediterranean states plus Portugal, Jordan, and Mauritania. Twenty-one of the 25 have expressed interest in participating, with holdouts thus far being Libya (which has stated a problem with Israel's participation),Syria and Lebanon (which Le Roy described as "otherwise preoccupied"), and Turkey. Le Roy said he was in Turkey in early February to combat the perception there that the Union for the Mediterranean would be a substitute for EU membership. The Rome Appeal signed by France, Italy, and Spain on December 21, 2007 helped assuage Turkish concerns resulting from President Sarkozy's earlier statements that Europe's relations with Turkey should be seen "through the Mediterranean Union." Le Roy emphasized that no French official has ever said that Mediterranean Union membership would be an alternative to EU membership. Le Roy stated that the most enthusiastic states on the European side are Spain, Italy, and Greece, followed by Malta, Cyprus, and Portugal. On the southern and eastern shores, Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt are the most positive, along with Mauritania and Israel. Le Roy said that Cyprus will not explicitly pose a problem to the Union for the Mediterranean because, as with the EU, the "government" of Northern Cyprus is not recognized at all so work in that area can occur as long as individuals, NGOs, etc. are the focal points. Le Roy said that the Union will not favor the Maghreb as a "core" for its early efforts, though he acknowledged that a 5 plus 5 or 6 plus 6 focus (including Greece and Egypt) for some projects would likely be fruitful. Le Roy said that the Union will have no preconditions for membership in terms of issues like human rights. PARIS 00000350 002.2 OF 003 ¶4. (C) According to Le Roy, German concerns that the Union for the Mediterranean will divide the European Union remain a problem. France's proposal for the kickoff meeting is that only Mediterranean states attend the first day of the July 13-14 summit, with non-coastal states invited for the second day only. Germany has thus far insisted that the entire meeting be open to all interested EU states. (Note: Discussions on this final point of contention are expected at the next informal meeting between President Sarkozy and Chancelor Merkel on March 3.) France feels strongly that the Barcelona Process is too Europe-driven, and that the presence of the European Commission in particular diminishes the sense of ownership and responsibility among the southern Mediterranean nations. Thus, having only coastal states as members, and keeping the Union for the Mediterranean light in bureaucracy, will make it more functional. Individual projects will have "variable geometry" and any state, including the U.S., can participate in their implementation. -------------- WHAT WILL THE UNION UNDERTAKE? -------------- ¶5. (C) Le Roy stated that early proposals for the Union for the Mediterranean to address include: - access to drinking water, including water sharing and pipelines, use of grey water, and improved efficiency; - energy, for example a solar plan for the Mediterranean, as well as strengthening the electric "loop" of the Mediterranean; - highways between the eastern and western sides of the southern shore, as proposed by Egypt; - university, research, and medical exchanges; - creation of a civil defense/protection center focused on natural disasters; and, - creation of a financial agency to fund SMEs and build public-private partnerships. ¶6. (C) The Union for the Mediterranean will contribute indirectly to promoting peace, human rights, and counter-terrorism, through activities like education and training. Political challenges like Israeli/Palestinian peace and the tensions between Morocco and Algeria can best be addressed outside the new organization. The "variable geometry" of individual projects will help ensure they are not hampered by politics. Le Roy noted that immigration is a priority theme for Europe, but less so for its southern neighbors, and that the French EU Presidency's focus on immigration will be the European locus of activity on the issue. He noted the Euro-Mediterranean Horizon 2020 initiative, devoted to the environmental health of the Mediterranean Sea, is a project the Union will seek to complement rather than to duplicate. -------------- HOW WILL PROGRESS BE ACHIEVED? -------------- ¶7. (C) Le Roy's team consists of about 7 highly-qualified subject-matter experts detailed from other agencies to an office under the President's auspices. They are currently engaged in developing specific French proposals for the Union's first round of projects. He described the current work as "pre-feasibility studies," and noted that contacts were beginning now among interested parties. The proposals should be made public in the March-April timeframe and further refined and discussed through bilateral and informal discussions between now and the July Summit. ¶8. (C) Le Roy stated that only a small permanent secretariat will be created at the July 13 summit. The Secretariat will track the projects and organize the next summits, which will take place every one or two years. The good governance of each project will be a major concern. Le Roy noted that the many development banks in the region would be very important sources of funding for Union for the Mediterranean projects, adding that most project funding would "not at all" come from the northern Mediterranean. ¶9. (C) Le Roy noted three major ways in which the Union will PARIS 00000350 003.2 OF 003 differ from the Barcelona Process: strong political momentum, visible concrete projects, and involvement of the private sector. He said that low visibility to the public is a major handicap of the Barcelona Process, noting that the 2005 Euro-Med meeting had brought together heads of state from northern Mediterranean countries, but not the southern Mediterranean ones. He emphasized that the Union will complement the structural work of the Barcelona Process, as well as other initiatives like BMENA. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) President Sarkozy's original vision for the Mediterranean Union, while lacking in detail, clearly aimed at something loftier than a framework for projects -- which the EU already has in the Barcelona Process. Push-back from Germany, supported by other non-Mediterranean EU members, accounts for this significant scaling back. Differences over the kickoff event remain to be resolved, most likely at the Sarkozy-Merkel meeting on March 3. END COMMENT. Minimize considered. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON