FRENCH VISION FOR THE UNION FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000350

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018
TAGS: PREL
SUBJECT: FRENCH VISION FOR THE UNION FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

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Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 15, Alain Le Roy, Ambassador
at Large charged by President Sarkozy with development of the
Union for the Mediterranean, presented Pol M-C with the
French vision for the initiative. Le Roy, who works under
the supervision of influential Sarkozy adviser and
speechwriter Henri Guaino, said the French still envision a
25-member Union, with other countries, including the U.S.,
participating in specific projects as desired. Leading up to
the initial summit in July, the French focus is on concrete
projects and deliverables for environmental, infrastructure,
and economic cooperation. France seeks to create a Union
that is results-oriented and light on bureaucracy. However,
Le Roy implied that the scope of the Union could be later
expanded if its early efforts are successful. END SUMMARY.

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WHY A UNION FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN?
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2. (C) Le Roy noted that President Sarkozy named at his
inauguration the Mediterranean Union as one of his three
highest priorities. Le Roy noted that while the U.S. puts 18
to 20 percent of its foreign direct investment into the
Western Hemisphere, and Japan does similarly with its
"south," Europe puts less than 2 percent into the
Mediterranean region. Le Roy also cited an OECD study
showing that unemployment will increase along the south and
east of the Mediterranean basin, widening the income gap
between north and south and destabilizing the region. He
noted that while many worthwhile initiatives have been
undertaken to combat this trend, more must be done. The
Union for the Mediterranean will thus be based in concrete
projects and complement existing initiatives such as the
Barcelona Process. Le Roy stressed that rather than being a
"Mediterranean Union" with ambitions of political
integration, the initiative is a "Union for the
Mediterranean" focused on progress on projects. He said that
since the proposal was introduced by President Sarkozy during
his campaign, it has evolved mostly in terms of clarifying
that difference.

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WHO WILL PARTICIPATE?
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3. (C) Le Roy said there are 25 candidates for membership:
the 22 Mediterranean states plus Portugal, Jordan, and
Mauritania. Twenty-one of the 25 have expressed interest in
participating, with holdouts thus far being Libya (which has
stated a problem with Israel's participation),Syria and
Lebanon (which Le Roy described as "otherwise preoccupied"),
and Turkey. Le Roy said he was in Turkey in early February
to combat the perception there that the Union for the
Mediterranean would be a substitute for EU membership. The
Rome Appeal signed by France, Italy, and Spain on December
21, 2007 helped assuage Turkish concerns resulting from
President Sarkozy's earlier statements that Europe's
relations with Turkey should be seen "through the
Mediterranean Union." Le Roy emphasized that no French
official has ever said that Mediterranean Union membership
would be an alternative to EU membership. Le Roy stated that
the most enthusiastic states on the European side are Spain,
Italy, and Greece, followed by Malta, Cyprus, and Portugal.
On the southern and eastern shores, Morocco, Tunisia, and
Egypt are the most positive, along with Mauritania and
Israel. Le Roy said that Cyprus will not explicitly pose a
problem to the Union for the Mediterranean because, as with
the EU, the "government" of Northern Cyprus is not recognized
at all so work in that area can occur as long as individuals,
NGOs, etc. are the focal points. Le Roy said that the Union
will not favor the Maghreb as a "core" for its early efforts,
though he acknowledged that a 5 plus 5 or 6 plus 6 focus
(including Greece and Egypt) for some projects would likely
be fruitful. Le Roy said that the Union will have no
preconditions for membership in terms of issues like human
rights.


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4. (C) According to Le Roy, German concerns that the Union
for the Mediterranean will divide the European Union remain a
problem. France's proposal for the kickoff meeting is that
only Mediterranean states attend the first day of the July
13-14 summit, with non-coastal states invited for the second
day only. Germany has thus far insisted that the entire
meeting be open to all interested EU states. (Note:
Discussions on this final point of contention are expected at
the next informal meeting between President Sarkozy and
Chancelor Merkel on March 3.) France feels strongly that the
Barcelona Process is too Europe-driven, and that the presence
of the European Commission in particular diminishes the sense
of ownership and responsibility among the southern
Mediterranean nations. Thus, having only coastal states as
members, and keeping the Union for the Mediterranean light in
bureaucracy, will make it more functional. Individual
projects will have "variable geometry" and any state,
including the U.S., can participate in their implementation.

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WHAT WILL THE UNION UNDERTAKE?
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5. (C) Le Roy stated that early proposals for the Union for
the Mediterranean to address include:
- access to drinking water, including water sharing and
pipelines, use of grey water, and improved efficiency;
- energy, for example a solar plan for the Mediterranean, as
well as strengthening the electric "loop" of the
Mediterranean;
- highways between the eastern and western sides of the
southern shore, as proposed by Egypt;
- university, research, and medical exchanges;
- creation of a civil defense/protection center focused on
natural disasters; and,
- creation of a financial agency to fund SMEs and build
public-private partnerships.


6. (C) The Union for the Mediterranean will contribute
indirectly to promoting peace, human rights, and
counter-terrorism, through activities like education and
training. Political challenges like Israeli/Palestinian
peace and the tensions between Morocco and Algeria can best
be addressed outside the new organization. The "variable
geometry" of individual projects will help ensure they are
not hampered by politics. Le Roy noted that immigration is a
priority theme for Europe, but less so for its southern
neighbors, and that the French EU Presidency's focus on
immigration will be the European locus of activity on the
issue. He noted the Euro-Mediterranean Horizon 2020
initiative, devoted to the environmental health of the
Mediterranean Sea, is a project the Union will seek to
complement rather than to duplicate.

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HOW WILL PROGRESS BE ACHIEVED?
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7. (C) Le Roy's team consists of about 7 highly-qualified
subject-matter experts detailed from other agencies to an
office under the President's auspices. They are currently
engaged in developing specific French proposals for the
Union's first round of projects. He described the current
work as "pre-feasibility studies," and noted that contacts
were beginning now among interested parties. The proposals
should be made public in the March-April timeframe and
further refined and discussed through bilateral and informal
discussions between now and the July Summit.


8. (C) Le Roy stated that only a small permanent secretariat
will be created at the July 13 summit. The Secretariat will
track the projects and organize the next summits, which will
take place every one or two years. The good governance of
each project will be a major concern. Le Roy noted that the
many development banks in the region would be very important
sources of funding for Union for the Mediterranean projects,
adding that most project funding would "not at all" come from
the northern Mediterranean.


9. (C) Le Roy noted three major ways in which the Union will

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differ from the Barcelona Process: strong political
momentum, visible concrete projects, and involvement of the
private sector. He said that low visibility to the public is
a major handicap of the Barcelona Process, noting that the
2005 Euro-Med meeting had brought together heads of state
from northern Mediterranean countries, but not the southern
Mediterranean ones. He emphasized that the Union will
complement the structural work of the Barcelona Process, as
well as other initiatives like BMENA.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) President Sarkozy's original vision for the
Mediterranean Union, while lacking in detail, clearly aimed
at something loftier than a framework for projects -- which
the EU already has in the Barcelona Process. Push-back from
Germany, supported by other non-Mediterranean EU members,
accounts for this significant scaling back. Differences over
the kickoff event remain to be resolved, most likely at the
Sarkozy-Merkel meeting on March 3. END COMMENT.

Minimize considered.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


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