SARKOZY PROMISES UKRAINE POSITIVE SIGNAL AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 000338

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018
TAGS: NATO MARR PREL UP FR
SUBJECT: SARKOZY PROMISES UKRAINE POSITIVE SIGNAL AT
BUCHAREST, BUT NO MAP

Classified By: A/DCM JOSIAH ROSENBLATT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C//NF) SUMMARY: Damien Loras, President Sarkozy's
Counselor for Ukraine (as well as Russia, Central Asia, the
Balkans, the Caucasus and the Americas),told us on February
25 that Sarkozy told Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko
during their meeting in Paris on February 20 that he will
seek a positive signal from the Alliance at Bucharest with
respect to Ukraine's NATO MAP (Membership Action Plan)
aspirations, but that NATO allies do not have sufficient time
before the Summit to reach a consensus decision on MAP for
Ukraine. Loras told us that France (as well as Germany and
other NATO members) is not prepared to support MAP for
Ukraine at this time, but would like to find politically
acceptable language that will welcome Ukraine's request.
Loras added that France attaches great importance to the
Bucharest Summit's success and hopes the allies will show
full unity on all issues, showcasing success and unity at the
Summit. END SUMMARY.


2. (C//NF) Ukrainian President Yushchenko met with President
Sarkozy on February 20 during a working visit to Paris aimed
at securing French support for Ukraine's NATO MAP
aspirations. Damien Loras, President Sarkozy's Counselor for
Ukraine (as well as Russia, Central Asia, the Balkans, the
Caucasus and the Americas),told us on February 25, that
Sarkozy told Yushchenko that France supports a positive
signal from the Alliance at Bucharest with respect to
Ukraine's MAP request, while also making clear that there was
not sufficient time for allies to find consensus on MAP for
Ukraine before the Summit. Yushchenko was reportedly
satisfied with Sarkozy's response.


3. (C//NF) Loras told us that the GOF wants the Alliance to
send a positive signal to Ukraine at Bucharest. The GOF is
prepared to find some middle ground -- including the
possibility of a Summit political declaration registering in
a positive way Ukraine's aspiration for MAP and its
"EuroAtlantic vocation." Loras added that the GOF is pleased
to see that Ukraine's leadership has "finally" been able to
reach an agreed position on something, and does not want to
ignore or derail Ukrainian momentum towards Euro-Atlantic
integration. The Ukrainian public has significantly
increased its support for NATO, up from 17% to 33% -- meaning
that a majority could support NATO in two years. At the same
time Loras said that France does not believe that Ukraine is
ready for MAP, adding that there is "no chance" of consensus
on the issue before Bucharest. He added that the Germans,
and to some extent the British, agree with the French
position. Loras speculated that Ukraine's last minute
request is motivated in part by domestic political
gamesmanship in that country, and noted that such factors
should not influence the merits of MAP for Ukraine.


4. (C//NF) President Sarkozy attaches great importance to the
success of the Bucharest Summit, Loras told us, and hopes the
allies will show full unity on all issues. Welcoming
Croatia, Albania, and Macedonia (provided the name issue is
worked out) and moving forward on Afghanistan are formidable
achievements that should be touted as such. With the
Bucharest Summit now only a few weeks away, Loras stressed,
we should move forward with what we have, showcasing success
and unity at the Summit. The allies, he suggested, should
continue to examine how we can welcome Ukraine's aspirations
without going as far as extending MAP. Loras wondered how
U.S. policy was evolving on the issue, noting that he sensed
U.S. movement towards seeking MAP for Ukraine at Bucharest.


5. (C//NF) COMMENT: Sarkozy's rejection of MAP for Ukraine at
Bucharest is fully consistent with what we have heard from
other French officials over the past several weeks. Though
not mentioned by Loras, French resistance to accept MAP for
Ukraine stems, at least in part, from concerns over the
likely Russian reaction to such a move. END COMMENT


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


PEKALA