SUDAN/FRANCE: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR NOTES EROSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002252 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PHUM KJUS SU FR SUBJECT: SUDAN/FRANCE: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR NOTES EROSION OF BASHIR'S SUPPORT CONCERNING ARTICLE 16 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Romain Serman, AF advisor at the French Presidency, on December 10 reviewed Sudan-related issues (discussions of Mauritania and Zimbabwe reported septels). Serman said that ICC prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo had consulted with the GOF earlier the same day. Moreno-Ocampo predicted that the ICC could take formal action against Bashir by issuing an indictment and arrest warrant at the end of January or first part of February 2009. ¶2. (C) Serman said the most important development was the steady erosion of support Bashir once enjoyed among Arab and African countries. Serman recalled the strong Arab and African reaction against the ICC when the possibility of Bashir's being indicted first arose during the summer of ¶2008. Such support had steadily decreased, Serman noted, and now "the Arabs and Africans were sharing our point of view that Bashir is the problem, and not the ICC or the international community." No one was talking about quashing ICC action against Bashir. Serman said that this was a major accomplishment -- "we have succeeded in making everyone realize that he is responsible for Sudan's situation. We have also put the ball in his court -- it's up to him to reform and change Sudan's policies, especially concerning Darfur and the misery Khartoum has created there." ¶3. (C) Serman commented on the recent encounter between President Sarkozy and Bashir in Qatar, where both were attending the UN Financing for Development meeting. Sarkozy was criticized for meeting and shaking hands with Bashir. However, Serman said that the key point was that Sarkozy met with Bashir not out of any solidarity but to remind him that he needed to change Sudan's behavior. "Some high representative of the international community has to do that, and Sarkozy does not shirk from playing that role," Serman asserted. ¶4. (U) More importantly, Serman noted a passage in Sarkozy's recent speech given on the 60th Anniversary of the Universal Declaration on Human Rights, delivered on December ¶8. In the speech, besides calling for Mugabe to step down, Sarkozy said (informal Embassy translation): -- "I would like to take a third example: Darfur, Sudan, and President Bashir. It's not difficult to convince me that Darfur is without a doubt one of the great scandals at the beginning of this century. Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, perhaps, of deaths in this region of the world, where the people have nothing and where there have been, without a doubt, the first wars over hunger and water. -- "We need a Sudanese government to finally find peace in Darfur. No one contests this. President Bashir really has very little time to decide. He has his future in his hands. Either he changes his attitude and allows the international community to discuss matters with him, or else he doesn't change his attitude and he will have to face his responsibilities, notably before the ICC, which is a symbol of progress for humanity. -- "When one conserves within one's government a man who is pursued for his crimes, then the international community cannot speak with you. The choice of President Bashir, the Sudanese President, is a choice that he should make not within the weeks that are coming, but within the next few days. -- "I had the occasion in Doha at the end of November to say this to him in the clearest manner. I know very well that certain people said, 'how does he dare speak to President Bashir?' If one doesn't speak to the Sudanese President, how will one find a solution in this part of the world? But if the Sudanese President doesn't change his policies, then no one will speak to him any longer." ¶5. (C) Serman (who probably wrote this part of the speech) said that Sarkozy was sending a very powerful signal to Bashir. Serman stressed the passage about Bashir's not having weeks but days to decide on a new course. Whether he did or not, the marker was there for him. ¶6. (C) Before the discussion ended, Serman turned to one of his favorite themes -- the possibility of creating fissures with the Sudanese government by talking to figures such as intelligence chief Salah Ghosh, who are, according to Serman, quite afraid of ICC prosecution and who may be willing to cut their own deals to avoid an indictment. He thought this was an avenue of approach that would, at the very least, play on the worries of Sudan's leaders and perhaps encourage more PARIS 00002252 002 OF 002 positive behavior. PEKALA