ZIMBABWE/FRANCE: AU SHOULD RE-ASSERT OWNERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002250

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PHUM ZI FR
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE/FRANCE: AU SHOULD RE-ASSERT OWNERSHIP
FROM SADC

Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Romain Serman, AF advisor at the French
Presidency, on December 10 said that the African Union should
try to re-assert control over the Zimbabwe issue, with SADC
and Mbeki having failed to mount unified and firm pressure on
Mugabe to leave, which was the only course available given
the collapse of the political power-sharing process. AU
pressure on Mugabe would be more effective than pressure
exerted by Westerners. Serman indicated that the EU would
seek consultations with the AU on coordinating a common
strategy. Separately, the MFA informed us on December 11
that Zimbabwe had denied visas to a French medical team that
would have gone to Zimbabwe in response to the cholera
outbreak. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In a December 10 meeting devoted to Mauritania and
Sudan (septels),Romain Serman, an AF advisor at the French
Presidency, discussed Zimbabwe. He noted that leaders around
the world were openly calling for Mugabe to step down, with
the chorus increasing each day. These included former
President Carter and former UNSYG Kofi Annan, who had
consulted with French recently in Paris. Annan was quite
blunt in saying that he saw little possibility that Mugabe
could lead Zimbabwe out of its current predicament.


3. (C) The problem, Serman said, was that all of these
calls for Mugabe to give up power were coming from the West
or "the white world," as he put it. Even though many African
leaders realized that Mugabe should step aside, they were
reluctant to say so, for fear of being branded as the West's
lackeys or being criticized for abandoning one who had helped
end colonial rule in Africa. Serman believed that it was
necessary to encourage African leaders to speak out against
Mugabe without fear of being stigmatized for doing so.


4. (C) Serman said that the GOF and UK had consulted on
Zimbabwe on December 5. He said that the British had been
more reticent than the French about moving forward. Serman
said the French position boiled down to three points: (1)
that the September 15 powersharing agreement was "dead in the
water," given Mugabe's failure to implement it or to give
Tsvangirai real power via another mechanism; (2) Mugabe "had
to go;" and (3) the "smart way" was to encourage the AU into
taking the lead for the international community in persuading
Mugabe to leave or share power in a meaningful way (not
likely, given Mugabe's mindset). Serman aid that the EU
would seek consultations with the AU on Zimbabwe "soon."


5. (C) AU leadership was important, Serman believed,
because an AU call for Mugabe to step aside would have the
necessary credibility in Africa that similar messages
emanating from "the West" lacked. The AU should be told that
SADC and Mbeki had done a poor job of managing the Zimbabwe
crisis and in some respects had only prolonged Zimbabwe's
agony without providing a way out. The kind of patience that
Mbeki had advocated had not worked and had allowed Mugabe to
build his defenses.


6. (C) Serman said that the cholera problem, awful though
it was, served a useful purpose -- "the Africans can now see
that Zimbabwe is, literally, rotting away, with a rot that is
quite capable of infecting the neighboring countries as
well." The neighbors had already experienced refugees and
spillover problems from Zimbabwe, but the cholera epidemic,
Serman believed, would hit home in a way that the other
problems had not. It was also a much more tangible problem
than the somewhat "technical issue" of a "500 million percent
inflation rate."

French Medical Team
--------------

7. (C) The GOF earlier this week had announced quite
prominently its intention to dispatch a medical team to
Zimbabwe to assist with the cholera outbreak. On December
11, MFA Desk Officer Isabelle de Boisgelen confirmed what
Embassy Harare had indicated on December 10 -- that
Zimbabwean authorities had denied visas to the French health
care team. She remarked that it was a rejection similar to
the one the delegation led by former President Carter and
former UNSYG Annan had experienced.


PEKALA