ZIMBABWE/FRANCE: AU SHOULD RE-ASSERT OWNERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002250 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PHUM ZI FR SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE/FRANCE: AU SHOULD RE-ASSERT OWNERSHIP FROM SADC Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Romain Serman, AF advisor at the French Presidency, on December 10 said that the African Union should try to re-assert control over the Zimbabwe issue, with SADC and Mbeki having failed to mount unified and firm pressure on Mugabe to leave, which was the only course available given the collapse of the political power-sharing process. AU pressure on Mugabe would be more effective than pressure exerted by Westerners. Serman indicated that the EU would seek consultations with the AU on coordinating a common strategy. Separately, the MFA informed us on December 11 that Zimbabwe had denied visas to a French medical team that would have gone to Zimbabwe in response to the cholera outbreak. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) In a December 10 meeting devoted to Mauritania and Sudan (septels),Romain Serman, an AF advisor at the French Presidency, discussed Zimbabwe. He noted that leaders around the world were openly calling for Mugabe to step down, with the chorus increasing each day. These included former President Carter and former UNSYG Kofi Annan, who had consulted with French recently in Paris. Annan was quite blunt in saying that he saw little possibility that Mugabe could lead Zimbabwe out of its current predicament. ¶3. (C) The problem, Serman said, was that all of these calls for Mugabe to give up power were coming from the West or "the white world," as he put it. Even though many African leaders realized that Mugabe should step aside, they were reluctant to say so, for fear of being branded as the West's lackeys or being criticized for abandoning one who had helped end colonial rule in Africa. Serman believed that it was necessary to encourage African leaders to speak out against Mugabe without fear of being stigmatized for doing so. ¶4. (C) Serman said that the GOF and UK had consulted on Zimbabwe on December 5. He said that the British had been more reticent than the French about moving forward. Serman said the French position boiled down to three points: (1) that the September 15 powersharing agreement was "dead in the water," given Mugabe's failure to implement it or to give Tsvangirai real power via another mechanism; (2) Mugabe "had to go;" and (3) the "smart way" was to encourage the AU into taking the lead for the international community in persuading Mugabe to leave or share power in a meaningful way (not likely, given Mugabe's mindset). Serman aid that the EU would seek consultations with the AU on Zimbabwe "soon." ¶5. (C) AU leadership was important, Serman believed, because an AU call for Mugabe to step aside would have the necessary credibility in Africa that similar messages emanating from "the West" lacked. The AU should be told that SADC and Mbeki had done a poor job of managing the Zimbabwe crisis and in some respects had only prolonged Zimbabwe's agony without providing a way out. The kind of patience that Mbeki had advocated had not worked and had allowed Mugabe to build his defenses. ¶6. (C) Serman said that the cholera problem, awful though it was, served a useful purpose -- "the Africans can now see that Zimbabwe is, literally, rotting away, with a rot that is quite capable of infecting the neighboring countries as well." The neighbors had already experienced refugees and spillover problems from Zimbabwe, but the cholera epidemic, Serman believed, would hit home in a way that the other problems had not. It was also a much more tangible problem than the somewhat "technical issue" of a "500 million percent inflation rate." French Medical Team -------------- ¶7. (C) The GOF earlier this week had announced quite prominently its intention to dispatch a medical team to Zimbabwe to assist with the cholera outbreak. On December 11, MFA Desk Officer Isabelle de Boisgelen confirmed what Embassy Harare had indicated on December 10 -- that Zimbabwean authorities had denied visas to the French health care team. She remarked that it was a rejection similar to the one the delegation led by former President Carter and former UNSYG Annan had experienced. PEKALA