EUR PDAS RIES DISCUSSES EU/RUSSIA RELATIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002088 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PBTS MARR UNSC EUN FR RS GG LE SUBJECT: EUR PDAS RIES DISCUSSES EU/RUSSIA RELATIONS, GEORGIA WITH FRENCH PRESIDENCY REF: STATE 119280 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen Allegrone for reas ons 1.4. (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On November 10, French presidency adviser on Russia, Damien Loras, confirmed that the EU/Russia summit will conclude November 14 with the announcement that talks on a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) will resume, a decision Loras argued was not a "big step" and the most effective way to discuss all contentious issues with Moscow. He rationalized the decision to restart talks now by saying their resumption was inevitable but the cost of doing so would rise over time. Loras dismissed Polish and other arguments within the EU against resumption of the PCA discussions as inconsistent, since they were maintaining normal bilateral relationships with Russia. He noted with concern hints that Lebanon might recognize the breakaway states in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and said that France is delivering a stiff demarche to the Lebanese government. Loras called for realism in terms of demanding Russian troops from the disputed provinces, arguing that we must do so publicly while privately acknowledging that Russian troops are likely to stay regardless and preferable to local militias in terms of maintaining security. He agreed on the need to coordinate to ensure EU and OSCE observers in South Ossetia were able to fulfill their mandates and urged finding a work-around for a UNOMIG renewal. End summary ¶2. (C) French presidency adviser on the Americas/Russia/Central Asia Damien Loras told visiting EUR PDAS Marcie Ries November 10 that the EU/Russia summit November 14 will wrap up with the announcement that talks will resume on a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA). Loras argued that this is not a big step, and that it was better to restart the talks now, in a low-key manner, than to wait, as the Russians would only raise the ante and declare a greater victory. Like others in the GOF, he said the negotiations would be a good way to draw the Russians into frank talks on all contentious issues. ¶3. (C) Ries underscored USG concern that the Russians will trumpet such a move, even one billed as low-key, as a victory or a reward, despite its failure to comply fully with the terms of the Georgia cease-fires. Ries countered that the Russians have more troops in contested areas than before. She further noted that the Russians are clearly uncomfortable with the international isolation caused by their actions in Georgia. ¶4. (C) Loras rejoined that, while it was true Russia had not returned to pre-August 7 lines, "the reality" was that insisting on such a prerequisite to negotiations would not lead to a Russian withdrawal. None of the EU countries have used that measurement to radically change or jeopardize their bilateral relations and it is unrealistic for the EU as a whole to do so. Loras called their opposition to the resumption of PCA talks and continuation of normal diplomatic relations as "inconsistent." The restarting of PCA discussions does not mean the EU will not press on Russian withdrawal, especially in the talks recently begun in Geneva. ¶5. (C) On that latter point, Loras reported that rumors, traced back to statements attributed to March 14 leader Saad Hariri during a weekend visit to Moscow, were circulating that Lebanon might recognize the independence of Georgia's breakaway regions. Loras said this made no sense, and the GOF was delivering a tough demarche to the Lebanese government to determine what was going on and to head off such a calamitous step. (Comment: We understand that Ambassador Sison in Beirut has learned from Lebanese PM Siniora that the GOL will not move to recognize South Ossetia or Abkhazia. End comment) ¶6. (C) When asked about French President Sarkozy's statement in Brussels November 7 that the GOF believes Russia has in fact complied with cease-fire demands in Georgia, Loras acknowledged that Sarkozy,s statement went well beyond the recommendation of his advisors, perhaps because of inadequate preparation. Returning to the core issues, Loras assured Ries that neither the GOF nor the EU will recognize the breakaway regimes Russia has established and will maintain pressure on Russia for a complete troop pullout. "But let's be honest," he added. "If it were not for the Russian troops, security would be in the hands of the local (Abkhaz and South Ossetian) militias, and they're crazy." France and the EU will restate publicly for the sake of principle the need for Russia to comply fully with its commitments. Privately, however, he repeated that the EU would be more "realistic" in its interactions with Russia PARIS 00002088 002 OF 002 over Georgia. ¶7. (C) On the question of EU observers in Georgia, Loras remarked that France wanted to press EU observers to "cross the line" the Russians have established limiting EUMM access in order to properly fulfill their functions. Ries responded that not only EU but OSCE observers are currently not allowed to carry out their mandates. She warned that this would complicate or even put at risk renewing their mandates. Ries urged close coordination as we work to deal with the current lack of reliable "eyes on" the situation in South Ossetia, which is not good for either side. Loras agreed and expressed relief that things were better for UNOMIG in Abkhazia. Nevertheless, he said the U.S. and France should press Georgia to be less stubborn and find a way to rename the mission as well as draft the necessary UNSCR that preserves the key principles for the mission but satisfies the demands from Russia and the Abkhaz. ¶8. (C) Ries cautioned against giving any legal credence to the separatists in Abkhazia or South Ossetia, especially in an international forum like the UNSC. Picking up on this assertion, Loras maintained that a serious problem has been Georgia's rejection during the cease-fire negotiations with the Russians of a sentence stipulating that the status of the territories would be discussed after cessation of hostilities. The Russians had accepted this, but Georgian President Saakashvili did not. ¶9. (C) Continuing his recollection of the recent past, Loras contended that U.S., UK, and French insistence at the UN on respecting Georgia's territorial integrity had hastened Russian efforts to engineer the breakaway regions' declarations of independence. Russian PM Putin, backed by the military, exploited this argument about territorial integrity to outmaneuver "moderates" like President Medvedev and FM Lavrov, who disagreed with independence. Loras reiterated the importance for UNOMIG of preserving its underlying principle without jeopardizing its continuation. ¶10. (U) Late note: French press on November 12 reported that the Georgian ambassador in Paris, Mamuka Kudava, had announced that Georgian President Saakashvili will travel to the French capital from Warsaw to meet French President Sarkozy November 13, i.e., immediately before the start of the EU/Russia summit in Nice. Saakashvili, according to Kudava, intends to "discuss all questions concerning the restarting of negotiations" between the EU and Russia of a "strategic partnership" (sic) and to "denounce" Russia's failure to comply with its commitments under the August 12 cease-fire accord. ¶11. (U) PDAS Ries did not clear this cable. STAPLETON