FLIRTING WITH DISASTER: FRANCE PREPARES FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002005 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN XT XF FR EZ EG IS SW AL SUBJECT: FLIRTING WITH DISASTER: FRANCE PREPARES FOR THE FATEFUL MARSEILLE MINISTERIAL ON THE MEDITERRANEAN UNION REF: A. PARIS 1998 ¶B. PARIS 1997 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Kathy Allegrone for reasons 1.4. (b),(d). ¶1. (C) As Paris moves into the weekend before the Union for the Mediterranean (UPM) ministerial in Marseille 3-4 November, great uncertainty about its outcome and prospects for making good on the grand vision for the UPM sketched out in Paris last July prevail. A senior-level contact at the French MFA told us October 31 that none of the key decisions, from the location of the UPM's secretariat to the duration of the "northern" co-presidency (currently held by France as EU president),have been decided definitively. ¶2. (C) French President Sarkozy and Egyptian President Mubarak largely agreed on a way forward over the question of the Arab League's observer status (per ref a),according to the same source, but this had not yet translated into widespread Arab acceptance. French FM Kouchner, he continued, had worked the phones with Israeli FM Tzipi Livni to secure her agreement (in that context, our source denied all claims that Kouchner or Sarkozy felt any bitterness over Livni's decision not to attend the Marseille ministerial, given the internal political situation in Israel). The Czech prime minister's visit to Paris October 31 and meeting with Sarkozy may pave the way for a compromise on France's insistence that it maintain some hold on the EU part of the co-presidency. Our senior MFA source indicated the French would press for agreement for a shared presidency among the EU Troika that would keep France in the picture until at least next July, i.e., what the French regard as the most critical period in the UPM's formation. ¶3. (C) Embassy has reported in cables and Paris Points over the past several weeks French woes in securing agreement to the key decisions to be taken in Marseille and on the text of the final communique the ministers will issue. The GOF's interministerial coordinator for the UPM Serge Telle confirmed to us in frank terms as early as October 14 that all EU attempts at working level meetings to hash things out had failed over Israel's adamant refusal to allow an Arab League observer delegation to be present and over adamant Arab refusal to accept its exclusion. He and Elysee special adviser Henri Guaino had visited Israel and Egypt a number of times, in addition to tens of phone calls, to try to break the impasse with no effect. France had hoped to find agreement along the lines of the understanding for the Barcelona Process, i.e. at ministerial level gatherings in a strict observer capacity. Claiming to reflect the majority Arab view, the Egyptians insisted on participation in lower level meetings, including on thematic subjects. The end result has been virtual paralysis, with the French having to circulate the draft declaration to all 43 parties and to synthesize all the comments in painstaking fashion. ¶4. (C) Telle's hope that a late October water meeting in Amman, Jordan, would offer a last-ditch opportunity for a working meeting prior to the ministerial when the Jordanians pulled the plug on the water meeting because of the dispute over Arab League participation. Even as he expressed frustration (and took calls from subordinates in contact with the different players),Telle reaffirmed Sarkozy's total commitment to the UPM's success. The Marseille ministerial was intended to discuss the UPM's governance (including establishment of its secretariat),the state of efforts to draw up a project-specific workplan, and "the political situation" (the latter being a requirement Telle accepted with the argument that it would be "absurd" to ignore the Israeli/Palestinian dispute). Telle did not know on October 14 which of the candidates for the secretariat's location -- Tunis, Valletta, or Barcelona -- would win out, but the latest word we heard from MFA's North Africa DAS-equivalent Cyrille Rogeau on October 31 was that Barcelona was emerging as the clear favorite since most Arabs did not want the secretariat located anywhere that Israeli participation would provoke controversy. ¶5. (C) Comment: The French are plowing ahead with the UPM ministerial, despite brief hints they might cancel it at the last minute. One option, suggested by Telle, would be to defer until 2009 many of the decisions that were supposed to have been decided in Marseille. This would include the secretariat location, which Telle and others have said is not critical until the projects under consideration or being implemented reaches critical mass. If anything, however, the potential for a fiasco in Marseille has driven renewed reflection on the management structure for directing the French effort on behalf of the UPM. Our senior MFA source acknowledged that the lack of full MFA involvement or buy-in PARIS 00002005 002 OF 002 to the UPM project has been an ongoing problem from the start, given the Elysee's dominance of the process from the outset through to the July 2008 Paris summit. Telle's status, like that of his predecessor Alain LeRoy, has been ambiguous and subject to being undercut by Guaino, who reportedly has not been disposed to coordinate his activities with Telle or any of his subordinates. According to our MFA source, Kouchner, whose credibility is somewhat on the line for the success or failure at Marseille, has decided in the past few days that the effort needs to be fundamentally reorganized and intends to press the Elysee to place the entire operation fully under the MFA's tutelage. That, of course, could depend on how well the French get through the Marseille ministerial next week. STAPLETON