FRENCH MFA OFFICIAL TALKS ABOUT GEORGIA DONORS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001983

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID ECON EUN FR RU GG
SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA OFFICIAL TALKS ABOUT GEORGIA DONORS,
CONFERENCE, RUSSIA,S CURRENT ATTITUDE TOWARDS GEORGIA
CONFLICT

Summary
--------------


1. (C) French MFA DAS-equivalent for Eurasian Affairs
Alexandre Vulic told us that the Georgia donors conference in
Brussels on October 22 served as confirmation that the
European Union has addressed the conflict in Georgia from
every angle. All pledged money will be controlled by either
the European Commission or, for bilateral donations and for
non-EU members, through agreements with Tbilisi to ensure
that the money benefits Georgia to the maximum extent
possible and does not get diverted to the self-proclaimed
regimes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When speaking of the
November 18 follow-on to the October conference on Georgia,
Vulic said that getting everyone to sit down to discuss the
issues "is EU,s special envoy Pierre Morel,s problem" and
that the next meeting should tackle issues like refugee
return and the flow of goods and services between Georgia and
South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Vulic said that Russia has made
an effort to downplay any remaining tensions in Georgia in
order to get back to "business as usual" with Europe. The
upcoming EU-Russia summit will be useful because it will
allow the EU to determine where things stand with Russia now
that the Georgia conflict has largely subsided. Vulic said
that at the summit Paris will be ready to listen to Russian
ideas on European Security, but not necessarily to discuss
them, but France expected the current financial crisis would
be the main subject for discussion. Finally, Vulic talked
about weaknesses in the governments in both Georgia and
Russia caused by discontent among political elites in the
former and the financial crisis and questions about the
strength of support for Medvedev in the latter. End summary

The EU Closes the Circle: Georgia Donor Conference
-------------- --------------


2. (C) French MFA DAS-equivalent for Eurasian affairs
Alexandre Vulic told us October 24 that the Georgia donors
conference in Brussels on October 22 served as confirmation
that the European Union has addressed the conflict in Georgia
from every angle possible: political, structural, and, now,
from an economic and human rights perspective as well. The
money pledged in Brussels was more than anyone had
anticipated and will be spent to meet the needs of the
Georgian government and its citizens.


3. (C) Vulic emphasized, however, that the pledged money
will not be handed directly to the Georgian government or to
the de facto regimes established in South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, however, but will be controlled either by the
European Commission or, for non-EU donors and those EU
members making additional contributions, through bilateral
agreements between each government and Tbilisi. All the
donors want to make sure that the money given to Georgia will
benefit that country to the maximum extent possible. When
questioned about whether the money would be spent in South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, Vulic said that that is an issue that
will have to be addressed, as access to the two regions is
limited.


4. (C) Vulic then launched into a description of additional
hurdles to be cleared with the separatist regions,
specifically that of documentation. As most South Ossetians
and Abkhazians have Russian passports, distinguishing between
those who live in Russia and those who merely have Russian
passports is complicated and makes it hard to decide who
should get visas. This is particularly alarming in the case
of criminals who may have acquired Russian passports and may
be able to get visas as Russian nationals. Conversely, Vulic
noted that some Georgians living in South Ossetia or Abkhazia
may be forced to take Russian passports -- a problem French
officials are also working to solve. The issuance by the
self-proclaimed regimes of Abkhazian and South Ossetian
passports, recognized so far by no one but perhaps Russia
will pose additional challenges if and as those entities
force citizens to carry them. For now, Vulic said that
residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia carrying Russian
passports would be processed for EU visas in Moscow as
Russians unless they were on a watch list (i.e., for senior
officials),in which case they might be told to apply in
Tbilisi.

"That,s Morel,s Problem": November 18 Geneva Meeting
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Vulic also expanded on goals France has for the next
discussion on Georgia, scheduled for November 18 in Geneva.
He said the September 8 agreement makes any "final status"
discussions difficult because first the parties involved have
to come to agreement on what the terms "stability" and
"security" refer to, as the Russians have a different idea

PARIS 00001983 002 OF 003


from the EU on what these terms mean in the conflict areas.
Vulic said that there are several issues on which the
November 18 conference should focus, including creating some
permeability on the borders between Georgia, South Ossetia,
and Abkhazia. Such permeability would facilitate travel,
economic, and official government ties to these places.
Refugee return is also an issue. Finally, Vulic said that we
have to have come up with a way to limit Russia,s influence
in Abkhazia and South Ossetia so that Moscow cannot continue
to run roughshod through the two regions.


6. (C) Vulic noted that Tbilisi seems to have realized
that, for the time being, it has to accept the situation on
the ground and move forward from there. When asked how he
thought the November 18 meeting would go given the
difficulties getting everyone to sit down together at the
first meeting, Vulic quipped "that,s Pierre Morel,s (the EU
special representative to Georgia) problem" but quickly added
that there has to be a way to get the dialogue moving
forward. "It,s really all about whether or not the Russians
want to play," Vulic concluded.

Russia: Pushing for &Business as Usual8 with EU
-------------- --


7. (C) Responding to questions about the November 14
EU-Russia summit in Nice, Vulic highlighted Moscow,s desire
to play down any enduring tensions in Georgia in order to try
to return to more "normal" relations with the EU. The
Russians very much want to give the impression that
hostilities are over and that the Georgia conflict was a
unique event that will not be repeated in other neighboring
countries. Vulic noted that Moscow, hoping to prevent
tensions from escalating after they've decreased, has dialed
back its efforts to persuade other countries to recognize the
independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.


8. (C) Russia also wants to give the EU the impression that
Moscow has always been in control of the situation in South
Ossetia and Abkhazia and that nothing has changed much
despite the short war, Vulic continued. Highlighting
Russia's continued control or predominant influence in these
regions allows it to bolster the argument that Moscow was
simply defending its interests and that no laws have been
broken. It is important to note, however, that the Russians
will only push the issue of continuity so far in order to
avoid giving EU countries the impression that Moscow acted
illegally. Russia,s intentions in the region still are not
entirely clear, Vulic conjectured, but it really wants to
make it look like the region has cooled down.


9. (C) Russia,s main motive for emphasizing the calm in
the Caucasus is to try to move dialogue with Europe on to
other topics. Moscow is tired of talking about the war and
wants to discuss other things at the EU-Russia summit in
November. From the French perspective, the summit will be
useful because it will allow the EU to take stock of where
things stand with Russia now that the Georgia conflict has
largely subsided. Vulic said that at the summit Paris will
be ready to listen to Russian ideas on a new European
Security organization, but not necessarily to discuss them.
Paris expects instead that the current international
financial crisis will dominate the discussion. EU members
will have several meetings prior to the summit in Nice to
work towards an agreement on the major issues to bring up
with Russia. The EU has to develop some "red lines", Vulic
said, to determine areas in which the EU-Russia relationship
can move forward and points where it should pause. The main
goal of the EU-Russia summit is to see if it,s possible, not
to return to "business as usual" with the Russians, but to at
least get back to "business." Progress on Georgia, he
repeated, would be the key benchmark in this regard.

Something in Common?! Fragile Governments in Tbilisi and
Moscow
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Although he did not discuss them in conjunction
with each other, Vulic spent time during our meeting
discussing the fragile nature of the governments in both
Tbilisi and Moscow. Georgian president Saakashvili is
getting progressively weaker in French eyes as opposition to
him grows. The opposition that threatens him the most is not
from the recognized opposition parties but rather from those
within Saakashvili,s government who are not happy with
Saakashvili,s comportment during and after the war in South
Ossetia. These opponents want a more progressive,
even-keeled leader in Georgia, someone who will be a better
representative for Georgia abroad. Vulic agreed that
Saakashvili needs to allow more independent media in Georgia
but said that Saakashvili has done a lot to reduce corruption

PARIS 00001983 003 OF 003


in Georgia. He added that French relations with Georgia are,
on the whole, fairly good, and that some Georgian officials
will be in Paris for bilateral discussions at the beginning
of November (i.e., before the Nice summit).


11. (C) Vulic spent quite a bit of time discussing what he
referred to as the "fragility" of Medvedev,s government. He
said that we cannot really know how popular Medvedev is but
that he thinks a lot of Russian oligarchs may be
reconsidering the promise they made to former president Putin
to stay out of Russian politics. As to discussions of a new
Cold War that have appeared in the wake of Russia,s military
activities in Georgia, Vulic asserted that Russia does not
have the means to start or maintain such an ongoing state of
strategic confrontation and that this is another indication
of the Russian government,s fragility. Finally, the current
financial crisis, coupled with the recent drop in the price
of oil, has further weakened Moscow and has had a greater
impact on Russia because of government weakness.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Vulic,s frank discussion of the donors conference
and relations with both Georgia and Russia seemed to indicate
a certain toughness in the French view; however, FM Kouchners
statement in St. Petersburg October 28 implying that the
decision on resuming negotiations on a partnership agreement
is a fait accompli, are much more forward leanding and caught
Vulic and others by surprise. We are seeking to clarify the
French position on this point. End comment


STAPLETON