FRENCH EU PRESIDENCY: GAERC PREPARATIONS STILL IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001875

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018
TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV ZI UZ BO GG RS FR EUN
SUBJECT: FRENCH EU PRESIDENCY: GAERC PREPARATIONS STILL IN
PROGRESS

REF: SECSTATE 108064

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen Allegrone for reas
ons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary. On October 10, French MFA Deputy Chief for
EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) Mathieu Carmona
provided an overview of French expectations for the October
GAERC. In addition to Zimbabwe, Georgia, and Belarus, the
topics of the U.S. demarche, Uzbekistan and Moldova, will be
subjects of conclusions from this meeting. Carmona noted
that all conclusions were still under discussion except those
on Zimbabwe. According to Carmona, the French Presidency
attempted to have as few foreign policy questions on the
agenda as possible, to focus on preparation of the October
15-16 European Council. The financial crisis will also be a
major topic of discussion this month. Bosnia and the Middle
East will be discussed at the November GAERC. On Georgia, the
French are considering Russian compliance with the September
8 agreement on withdrawal to resume negotiations on an
EU-Russian partnership agreement rather than the more
stringent August 12 agreement. Post will continue to press
the French on this. End summary.

ZIMBABWE


2. (C) Carmona noted that Zimbabwe was the least
controversial subject on this month's agenda and the only one
for which conclusions have already been agreed. With the
signing of the power-sharing agreement a month ago and no
progress since, EU member-states have now reached more
consensus than before, recognizing that sanctions are the
likely next step. Thus, the GAERC conclusions will reiterate
the need for implementation of the agreement, ask the SADC to
intervene again, but also suggest stronger measures will be
needed in the absence of progress. Carmona noted that the
French Presidency had demarched the African Union, the SADC
and South Africa this week to ask them to help facilitate a
transition. South Africa's response was disappointing,
claiming reluctance to intervene without a request from both
sides in Zimbabwe. According to Carmona, South Africa
discouraged the EU from going too far and expressed
sensitivity about UN Security Council handling of African
problems; Carmona noted that Mbeki's mandate as a mediator is
still in effect. Carmona said though the conclusions were
already agreed to, there may be some discussion nonetheless,
notably comments by UK FM Miliband. Note: Carmona's comments
follow agreement from MFA Zimbabwe desk officer Isabelle de
Boisgelin with our demarche points, which she said reflected
a similarly firm French approach.

GEORGIA


3. (C) Carmona confirmed that Georgia will be discussed
among the Foreign Ministers, who currently disagree on how to
evaluate Russia's withdrawal thus far. France uses Russia's
September 8 agreement as the reference point for compliance,
i.e., withdrawal from zones adjacent to South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, while some other member-states prefer to use the
August 12 document calling for a return to the "status quo
ante." Carmona said Sarkozy was very clear when meeting with
Medvedev earlier this week that France considers Russia to
have met its commitments and thus France is ready to reopen
negotiations between the EU and Russia on the EU-Russia
partnership agreement, for example. However, due to the lack
of consensus within the EU, the Council conclusions will
likely reference "important progress" in implementation of
both the August 12 and September 8 documents as a compromise,
rather than addressing whether withdrawal has been completed
or not.

BELARUS


4. (C) Carmona said that the direction of EU conclusions on
Belarus will likely be decided on Monday morning by the PSC,
and discussed by the foreign ministers at the GAERC. Some
member-states want to send Belarus an overall positive
signal, following the release of the political prisoners and
bearing in mind the regional context, while noting
reservations about the conduct of the recent legislative
elections. Others, however, prefer to focus on the
disappointment of the elections. Carmona said the
Netherlands has the least margin to maneuver away from a more
hard-line position, due to its parliamentary obligations. He
added that member-states have discussed specific sanctions,

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but again, have not reached any consensus. Following the
GAERC, Belarussian FM Martynov will participate in a Troika
meeting. According to Carmona, the French Presidency decided
on this "gesture of openness" and did not need agreement of
the 27 members-states, which would not have been achieved in
light of the Netherlands' resistance. The discussion will be
focused on the present, rather than the future - i.e., there
will not be any references to a "European orientation."
Carmona said that the EU's goal is to reinforce Belarus'
independence. He added the personal observation that
Belarussian attempts to play the East off the West resemble
Ukraine's diplomatic activity in the 1990s and if so, time is
"on the side of the West."

UZBEKISTAN


5. (C) Carmona noted that the EU had previously committed to
reconsider Uzbekistan at the October GAERC. The question,
again, is whether to maintain sanctions, with the Netherlands
taking the hardest line. However, the EU has a serious
obligation to reach consensus at this GAERC, since the EU
common position expires in November (which would result in no
sanctions whatsoever). The French share the overall
preference to lift sanctions against individuals while
maintaining the arms embargo. Carmona said this would be
consistent with the EU's Central Asia strategy and expressed
confidence that the EU will reach agreement because there is
"too much to lose" by not doing so.

MOLDOVA


6. (C) Carmona said the French Presidency has agreed, at
Romanian insistence, to issue conclusions on Moldova. They
will send a positive signal that the EU is ready to negotiate
an "ambitious agreement" with Moldova, and will cite specific
enticements to that effect (visas, free trade, etc.) Carmona
noted that the Romanians pushed hard for the term "accession
agreement," but that most member-states thought that would go
too far.

NEXT STEPS


7. (C) According to Carmona, the French Presidency attempted
to have as few foreign policy questions on the agenda as
possible, to focus on preparation of the October 15-16
European Council. The financial crisis will also be a major
topic of discussion this month, due to ongoing developments.
Thus, Bosnia and the Middle East will be discussed at the
November GAERC. Meanwhile, the scheduled continuation of
discussions of transatlantic relations in Gymnich format will
take place October 30 in Paris.


STAPLETON