FRENCH EU PRESIDENCY: GAERC PREPARATIONS STILL IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001875 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018 TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV ZI UZ BO GG RS FR EUN SUBJECT: FRENCH EU PRESIDENCY: GAERC PREPARATIONS STILL IN PROGRESS REF: SECSTATE 108064 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen Allegrone for reas ons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary. On October 10, French MFA Deputy Chief for EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) Mathieu Carmona provided an overview of French expectations for the October GAERC. In addition to Zimbabwe, Georgia, and Belarus, the topics of the U.S. demarche, Uzbekistan and Moldova, will be subjects of conclusions from this meeting. Carmona noted that all conclusions were still under discussion except those on Zimbabwe. According to Carmona, the French Presidency attempted to have as few foreign policy questions on the agenda as possible, to focus on preparation of the October 15-16 European Council. The financial crisis will also be a major topic of discussion this month. Bosnia and the Middle East will be discussed at the November GAERC. On Georgia, the French are considering Russian compliance with the September 8 agreement on withdrawal to resume negotiations on an EU-Russian partnership agreement rather than the more stringent August 12 agreement. Post will continue to press the French on this. End summary. ZIMBABWE ¶2. (C) Carmona noted that Zimbabwe was the least controversial subject on this month's agenda and the only one for which conclusions have already been agreed. With the signing of the power-sharing agreement a month ago and no progress since, EU member-states have now reached more consensus than before, recognizing that sanctions are the likely next step. Thus, the GAERC conclusions will reiterate the need for implementation of the agreement, ask the SADC to intervene again, but also suggest stronger measures will be needed in the absence of progress. Carmona noted that the French Presidency had demarched the African Union, the SADC and South Africa this week to ask them to help facilitate a transition. South Africa's response was disappointing, claiming reluctance to intervene without a request from both sides in Zimbabwe. According to Carmona, South Africa discouraged the EU from going too far and expressed sensitivity about UN Security Council handling of African problems; Carmona noted that Mbeki's mandate as a mediator is still in effect. Carmona said though the conclusions were already agreed to, there may be some discussion nonetheless, notably comments by UK FM Miliband. Note: Carmona's comments follow agreement from MFA Zimbabwe desk officer Isabelle de Boisgelin with our demarche points, which she said reflected a similarly firm French approach. GEORGIA ¶3. (C) Carmona confirmed that Georgia will be discussed among the Foreign Ministers, who currently disagree on how to evaluate Russia's withdrawal thus far. France uses Russia's September 8 agreement as the reference point for compliance, i.e., withdrawal from zones adjacent to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, while some other member-states prefer to use the August 12 document calling for a return to the "status quo ante." Carmona said Sarkozy was very clear when meeting with Medvedev earlier this week that France considers Russia to have met its commitments and thus France is ready to reopen negotiations between the EU and Russia on the EU-Russia partnership agreement, for example. However, due to the lack of consensus within the EU, the Council conclusions will likely reference "important progress" in implementation of both the August 12 and September 8 documents as a compromise, rather than addressing whether withdrawal has been completed or not. BELARUS ¶4. (C) Carmona said that the direction of EU conclusions on Belarus will likely be decided on Monday morning by the PSC, and discussed by the foreign ministers at the GAERC. Some member-states want to send Belarus an overall positive signal, following the release of the political prisoners and bearing in mind the regional context, while noting reservations about the conduct of the recent legislative elections. Others, however, prefer to focus on the disappointment of the elections. Carmona said the Netherlands has the least margin to maneuver away from a more hard-line position, due to its parliamentary obligations. He added that member-states have discussed specific sanctions, PARIS 00001875 002 OF 002 but again, have not reached any consensus. Following the GAERC, Belarussian FM Martynov will participate in a Troika meeting. According to Carmona, the French Presidency decided on this "gesture of openness" and did not need agreement of the 27 members-states, which would not have been achieved in light of the Netherlands' resistance. The discussion will be focused on the present, rather than the future - i.e., there will not be any references to a "European orientation." Carmona said that the EU's goal is to reinforce Belarus' independence. He added the personal observation that Belarussian attempts to play the East off the West resemble Ukraine's diplomatic activity in the 1990s and if so, time is "on the side of the West." UZBEKISTAN ¶5. (C) Carmona noted that the EU had previously committed to reconsider Uzbekistan at the October GAERC. The question, again, is whether to maintain sanctions, with the Netherlands taking the hardest line. However, the EU has a serious obligation to reach consensus at this GAERC, since the EU common position expires in November (which would result in no sanctions whatsoever). The French share the overall preference to lift sanctions against individuals while maintaining the arms embargo. Carmona said this would be consistent with the EU's Central Asia strategy and expressed confidence that the EU will reach agreement because there is "too much to lose" by not doing so. MOLDOVA ¶6. (C) Carmona said the French Presidency has agreed, at Romanian insistence, to issue conclusions on Moldova. They will send a positive signal that the EU is ready to negotiate an "ambitious agreement" with Moldova, and will cite specific enticements to that effect (visas, free trade, etc.) Carmona noted that the Romanians pushed hard for the term "accession agreement," but that most member-states thought that would go too far. NEXT STEPS ¶7. (C) According to Carmona, the French Presidency attempted to have as few foreign policy questions on the agenda as possible, to focus on preparation of the October 15-16 European Council. The financial crisis will also be a major topic of discussion this month, due to ongoing developments. Thus, Bosnia and the Middle East will be discussed at the November GAERC. Meanwhile, the scheduled continuation of discussions of transatlantic relations in Gymnich format will take place October 30 in Paris. STAPLETON