FRENCH VIEWS ON JULY GAERC: UKRAINE, ZIMBABWE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001380 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2017 TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV EUN IR SO SU CD IZ UP GG FR SUBJECT: FRENCH VIEWS ON JULY GAERC: UKRAINE, ZIMBABWE, ISRAEL-PALESTINE REF: STATE 75702 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen Allegrone for reas ons 1.4 (B & D). ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 18, MFA Deputy Office Chief for Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) Mathieu Carmona reviewed the agenda items for the July GAERC meeting. Carmona said that the French Presidency had, at FM Kouchner's request, proposed a reduced list of topics, but that other member-states' requests to add further topics to the agenda have made this one no shorter than usual. However, the French Presidency is still seeking to keep conclusions short and reflective of decisions only, rather than recapping policies. The three major topics for discussion will be Ukraine, the Middle East, and Zimbabwe, with the focus on preparations for the EU-Ukraine Summit in September, possible means of increased EU support for the Annapolis Process, and the strengthening of sanctions against Zimbabwe. Carmona said discussion of Somalia, Sudan/Darfur/Chad, and the Western Balkans will be kept very brief, and he did not discuss those subjects in further detail. We provide as background on Somalia and Sudan/Darfur/Chad the French perspectives obtained on July 18 from MFA AF DAS-equivalent Helene Le Gal. Carmona said Iran will be addressed briefly at the July GAERC by High Representative for CFSP Solana, reporting on his weekend meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister. Georgia will also be addressed briefly, by German FM Steinmeier, who will review his July 17-18 trip to Georgia. End Summary. -------------- UKRAINE: PREPARATIONS FOR SEPTEMBER SUMMIT -------------- ¶2. (C) Carmona said that discussion will focus on preparation of the September 9 EU-Ukraine summit, and three outstanding issues regarding the enhanced agreement scheduled for signature then. The first challenge is engaging in a long-term project for facilitating Ukrainian access to EU member-states. The EU must respond positively to Ukraine's "unilateral" lifting of visa requirements, but immediate reciprocation is not feasible. The second challenge is reinforcing Ukraine's European perspective. Paris wants the door to stay open for possible Ukrainian membership in the EU, without going too fast. Finally, the title and characterization of the agreement itself are in dispute, reflecting the need for caution from the EU in the face of Ukrainian desires to agree to an accession pact. -------------- SUPPORT FOR ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE PROCESS -------------- ¶3. (C) As reported in Paris 1377, the French Presidency seeks to remobilize the EU's efforts regarding the Israeli-Palestinian peace process over the next several months, in part to assure momentum in the process during the upcoming change in U.S. administrations. So, Carmona advised that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be an agenda item at monthly meetings up to November, i.e., the first anniversary of the Annapolis Process. At this month's GAERC, Quartet special envoy Tony Blair will be present and will provide his report on the situation on the ground; no conclusions are expected, just discussion. The EU focus will be on incentives and "guarantees" it could offer if a peace agreement were reached, as well as on concrete ways of improving conditions such as by the lifting of roadblocks. The monthly discussions were originally foreseen to start with the September Gymnich meeting in Avignon, but were moved up due to the positive momentum following the Israeli-Syrian participation in the Union for the Mediterranean summit and due to the worsening of the situation brought on by Israeli expansion of settlements. Carmona referred us to the Presidency's two declarations last week on the latter subject. -------------- MORE SANCTIONS AGAINST ZIMBABWE -------------- PARIS 00001380 002 OF 003 ¶4. (C) Carmona said that the EU will take further sanctions against Zimbabwe, the question being only how strong they will be. France seeks to add a few names from the failed UNSCR draft to the visa ban and asset freeze. Carmona said the French Presidency also seeks to target two economic holdings, one in the name of Mugabe's wife, the other belonging to "the clan" of Vice President Mujuru. France's strategy is to create dissention within the ZANU-PF and to disconnect the security apparatus from the political wing of the party. The GAERC conclusions will explicitly state that the increased sanctions are in response to the illegitimate second round of elections, and that lifting them would be contingent on positive developments. Though a breakthrough such as recognizing the results of the first round and moving towards a brief transition government would receive an appropriate response, the conclusions will also state that the status quo is not acceptable and threaten increased sanctions if there is no change. The next review would take place at the Gymnich meeting in September. The conclusions will also express regret on the failure of the UNSCR and offer the good offices of the EU. Carmona said that consensus is much greater in the EU today than a few months ago, when the UK and other northern European states mostly favored increased sanctions, while the Commission and the Mediterranean states focused on incentives and saw the matter as a bilateral issue between the UK and Zimbabwe. Today, all agree that sanctions need to be increased. ¶5. (C) Carmona said that the GAERC conclusions will contain no mention of the Mbeki negotiations as such. Carmona added that the Zimbabwe situation is complicating preparations for the EU-South Africa summit scheduled for August 25 in Bordeaux. Zimbabwe will be the biggest topic, though other crisis situations in Africa will also be on the agenda. Carmona said the EU needs South Africa to be a strong partner in Africa and cannot afford a "failed" summit. So, successful programs like science cooperation and educational exchanges will be emphasized. -------------- SOMALIA: ANTI-PIRACY, FOOD AID -------------- ¶6. (C) Though Carmona did not discuss Somalia specifically, on July 17, MFA AF DAS-equivalent Helene Le Gal said that France remained engaged in encouraging other Europeans (currently, Sweden) to undertake anti-piracy maritime patrols in the Horn of Africa region, a project the French initiated in November 2007 (and which Denmark and the Netherlands carried on after France persuaded them to do so). Spain and France are also coordinating an EU-wide effort to implement UNSCR 1816 to establish an EU anti-piracy effort in the region. Le Gal noted that France had doubled its food assistance to Somalia, to 3.5 million euro (5.5 million USD), with a possible supplement later this year. -------------- --- SUDAN/DARFUR/CHAD: ICC RAISES SUDANESE CONCERNS -------------- --- ¶7. (C) DAS-equivalent Le Gal further said on July 17 that the Sudanese seemed totally preoccupied with the ICC's possible indictment of President Bashir, a concern reinforced during Sudan FM Deng Alor's consultations in Paris on July ¶16. Le Gal said that Deng seemed to represent one faction within the GOS seeking some sort of conciliatory action on Sudan's part to lessen the possibility that the ICC will accede to Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo's request for an indictment. The French were concerned that Sudan might react hostilely to the ICC matter, which could make matters worse for UNAMID, NGOs, and peace efforts involving both Sudan's rebel elements and, bilaterally, with Chad. Le Gal said the French thought that the JEM rebel group, which could only have been encouraged by Moreno-Ocampo's action at the ICC, could mount a new offensive "at any time," which would further destabilize the situation in Sudan. Carmona did not discuss Sudan/Darfur/Chad, other than to note that discussion would be brief. PARIS 00001380 003 OF 003 -------------- -------------- IRAN: 1803 IMPLEMENTATION BEING WORKED IN BRUSSELS -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) The brief discussion on Iran will revolve around High Representative Solana's report from his meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister in Geneva on July 19. France's priority goal for Iran in the EU context is 1803 implementation; however, the somewhat cumbersome process is already underway. Carmona said that the EU's RELEX committee is working on a paper, with pressure from France to move quickly, which the Commission must then consider, so discussion at the GAERC will be short. -------------- -------------- GEORGIA: POSSIBLE FUTURE CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Carmona advised that the final topic will be Georgia, with FM Steinmeier's trip report followed by a little discussion, but no decision. The EU will focus on how it might be able to help calm the situation, by exploring possibilities like confidence-building measures and other efforts that could reduce Abkhazia's dependency on Russia and isolation from the international community. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Fran ce PEKALA