ZIMBABWE/UNSCR: FRENCH "REASONABLY OPTIMISTIC" OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001304 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR IO/PSC CLARK E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2018 TAGS: UNSC PREL PHUM ZI XA ZU UK FR SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE/UNSCR: FRENCH "REASONABLY OPTIMISTIC" OF ADOPTION REF: A. STATE 73173 ¶B. LONDON 1823 ¶C. USUN 610 Classified By: Political Counselor Andew Young, 1.4 (b/d). (C) French MFA IO desk officer Gurvan Le Bras on July 10 said that France was ready to vote for adoption of the draft UNSC sanctions resolution on Zimbabwe (ref A) and to co-sponsor it. The MFA had sent appropriate instructions to the French UN mission. Le Bras said that the GOF was "reasonably optimistic" the resolution would be adopted, citing only Russia as a concern. He was aware of the dynamics concerning Russia over this issue as described in refs B and C and the Russian request that the vote be delayed until July 11. Le Bras said, however, that he did not believe the Russians would veto the text, given recent indications, most notably at the G-8 meeting in Japan, even if subsequent Russian declarations were more equivocal. He thought that the Russian UN mission's request to delay the vote in order to receive formal instructions meant that the Russian UN mission wanted Moscow's confirmation not to veto the draft resolution rather than orders that Russia should veto it. Le Bras agreed with the U.S. view (also expressed by French UN PermRep Ripert) that we should take advantage of the current momentum favoring adoption and seek a vote as soon as circumstances (i.e., the Russia issue) permit. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Fran ce STAPLETON