FRENCH MFA DAS-EQUIVALENT FOR THE LEVANT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001221

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL FR IS SY LE SA
SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA DAS-EQUIVALENT FOR THE LEVANT ON
SARKOZY'S TRIP TO ISRAEL, SYRIA, LEBANON, AND THE ARAB
DRAFT UNSCR ON ISRAELI SETTLEMENTS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4. (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: French MFA DAS-equivalent Ludovic Pouille
on June 26 provided a rundown of key issues in his area of
responsibility, most notably Sarkozy's visit to Israel,
French views of where Israel is with Syria and Lebanon, Syria
and the July 13 Paris summit, rumors of a Sarkozy visit to
Lebanon, Saudi anger with France over Asad's invitation, and
French views of the situation in Lebanon. Pouille also
indicated France urges the USG to agree to consultations
early next week on a draft UNSCR circulated by the Arabs on
Israeli settlements. End summary

Sarkozy Visit to Israel
--------------


2. (C) Predictably, French MFA DAS-equivalent for Levant
affairs Ludovic Pouille on June 26 called Sarkozy's June
22-25 visit to Israel a complete success and noted positive
feedback not only in Israel and France but the Arab world as
well (for more information on the visit, see Paris Points for
June 26). He said the focus on political statements and
issues instead of commercial contracts and bilateral accords
(which had become the norm for most of Sarkozy's official
visits) was intentional: Sarkozy wanted to highlight
France's support for an Israeli/Palestinian peace settlement
sooner rather than later and willingness to play a more
active role, unilaterally or as EU president, should the
parties so desire. Pouille called Sarkozy's speech to the
Knesset "courageous" for its call for a settlement freeze and
for establishment of a joint capital in Jerusalem for Israel
and a future Palestinian state. He gave credit to the MFA
for managing to get that inserted into the final draft
without any objection or serious questioning by the Elysee.
Among the bilateral accords signed, Pouille noted a civil
defense agreement signed by the minister of interior and a
separate agreement to provide French assistance in the
establishment of a Palestinian industrial park near
Bethlehem. Although Pouille claimed there were few side
events or meetings, he said the Palestinians greatly
appreciate the interior minister's laying of wreaths on
Sarkozy's behalf at the tombs of Palestinian political
notable Faysal Hussayni and PLO leader Yasir Arafat.

Israel and Syria/Lebanon
--------------


3. (C) Pouille claimed there had been no breakthroughs in
terms of reputed efforts to broker a meeting on the margins
of the July 13 Paris summit of EU and Mediterranean leaders
between Israeli PM Olmert and Syrian President Asad (see more
in next tick). Although Pouille later refused to rule out
the possibility of such a meeting, Olmert explained that the
indirect talks with Damascus had not achieved a breakthrough
for direct or more substantive talks to occur. If and when
they reach such a point, Israel might ask France or the EU to
help out. (Comment: We assume this would be in the event
the USG did not do so. End comment) With respect to
Lebanon, the Israelis stated their desire to open up a direct
channel to Beirut, even if they doubted it would be possible
in the immediate future. Pouille was skeptical that the
Lebanese could accept such a proposal, particularly given
Israel's adamant refusal to consider placing Shab'a Farms
under UN control as a prelude to a negotiating process that
would lead to Israel's eventual withdrawal from that
territory. (Comment: Pouille claimed not to have gone
through all of the transcript from Sarkozy's meeting with
Olmert but was unaware of any side discussions with the
Israelis on Shab'a Farms during the visit. End comment) The
French are not sure what to do next on Shab'a Farms but may
propose in the fall some sort of reactivation of the mixed
armistice committee created in 1949 as a forum for
Israeli/Lebanese interaction.

Syria and the July 13 Paris Summit
--------------


4. (C) Syrian President Asad's attendance at the summit is
now fully confirmed, but the Syrians, in addition to
insisting that the French not attempt to push Asad into a
meeting with Olmert, have established red lines about any
efforts to seat the two delegations next to each other or
create public situations in which the two leaders would have
to acknowledge the other's presence. Syrian FM Mu'allim, as
previously reported, will arrive in Paris July 4 to advance
the Asad visit. Pouille admitted to one nagging French
concern: the optic of Asad in Paris should the Lebanese still
not have arrived at agreement on a new government. The one
"consolation" in all this was that Asad's presence in Paris

PARIS 00001221 002 OF 002


would facilitate Lebanese President Sleiman's attendance.

Continuing Rumors of a Sarkozy Visit to Damascus
-------------- ---


5. (C) The latest take on these rumors is that Sarkozy
might go to Damascus in August, i.e., after the Paris summit.
Sarkozy fueled speculation when in Israel he gave a flip
"why not?" answer to a reporter's shouted question about
going to Damascus. Pouille refused to be drawn into detailed
discussion except to remark that, as MFA and Elysee officials
recently noted to visiting A/S Welch, Sarkozy would only make
such a dramatic gesture to Syria's advantage if Sarkozy were
convinced that Asad had successfully met certain "benchmarks"
(presumably to include not hindering the formation of a new
Lebanese government and not undermining the Union for the
Mediterranean at the July 13 summit).

Saudi anger over France's invitation to Asad
--------------


6. (C) Pouille confirmed that the Saudis are extremely
angry with the French decision to invite Asad to Paris for
the July 13 summit and are accusing Sarkozy of "betrayal."
The complaints have come from all levels of the Saudi
government, starting with King Abdallah. Pouille said that
France is holding firm and would certainly not withdraw the
invitation as the Saudis have insisted.

Situation in Lebanon
--------------


7. (C) France is growing increasingly concerned about the
failure of Lebanese political leaders to reach agreement on a
new government. Pouille agreed that General Aoun was one of
the main reasons for the impasse and that he was fully backed
by Hizballah, although Hizballah was letting him lead the
fight and standing in the background. The violence in
northern Lebanon and elsewhere underlined the danger of a
sudden slip back into generalized violence. Pouille noted
intensifying Sunni paranoia over their relative lack of arms
and militia capability vis-a-vis Hizballah, and he suggested
a split was opening up among supporters of Sa'd Hariri's
Future Movement. He was not sure how serious it would get or
whether dissident members would seek to acquire arms, but
Pouille worried that vehement Sunni feeling toward the Shi'a
would increase the ranks of the Salafists in Lebanon.

UNSC Action on Settlements
--------------


8. (C) In the course of this discussion, Pouille received a
phone call from the Italian embassy asking about France's
position on a draft Arab UNSCR on Israeli settlements.
Pouille responded that France considers the draft balanced
and essentially in line with French and EU policy on the
subject. Against that background, he replied that France
would agree to move to experts' discussions on June 30 to see
whether the UNSC, assuming U.S. approval, could adopt the
resolution. After hanging up, Pouille urged the USG not
reject the draft out of hand (as he had heard Deputy
Secretary Negroponte had done with the Libyans, who, as Arab
representative on the UNSC, planned to submit the draft to
the Council) but agree to discuss it. He claimed the draft
went no further than official statements made by the USG, the
EU, and the Quartet and would mollify Arab frustration. If
the USG could not vote in favor of the resolution, Pouille
called for us to show "wisdom" and abstain. We said we would
pass the message back to Washington.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Fran ce

STAPLETON