NEA A/S WELCH DISCUSSION OF WESTERN SAHARA, UNION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001174

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN FR AG LY SY MO
SUBJECT: NEA A/S WELCH DISCUSSION OF WESTERN SAHARA, UNION
FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN AT FRENCH MFA, JUNE 12, 2008

PARIS 00001174 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenlatt for reason
s 1.4. (b),(d).


1. (SBU) NEA A/S Welch held extensive bilateral
consultations on key NEA issues with French MFA counterparts
in Paris on June 12. This cable focuses on Western Sahara
and the Union for the Mediterranean; other topics reported
septel (notal). Participants included:

USG
---

--NEA A/S David Welch
--Deputy Legal Adviser Jonathan Schwartz
--Embassy Paris Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt
--Embassy Paris NEA Watcher (notetaker)
--NEA Staff Assistant Mustafa Popal

GOF
---

--French MFA NEA A/S-equivalent Jean Felix-Paganon
--French MFA NEA Adviser to the Foreign Minister, Christophe
Bigot
--French MFA IO Adviser to the Foreign Minister Alice Guitton
--French MFA DAS-equivalent for North Africa Nathalie Loiseau
--French MFA IO desk officer for NEA Salina Grenet
--French MFA Morocco desk Officer Tudor Alexis (notetaker)


2. (C) After Welch observed that we had hoped for more
support from France after we declared our preference in the
UNSC for an autonomy-based solution to the Western Sahara
dispute, French MFA NEA A/S-equivalent Felix-Paganon said it
all boiled down to one thing: getting Algerian President
Bouteflika to the July 13 Paris summit to kick off the Union
for the Mediterranean. He acknowledged that, despite not
having gone as far as we had in favoring the Moroccan plan as
a basis for negotiations, France still risked losing on all
counts, i.e., Bouteflika deciding not to attend the summit
and the Moroccans angry at France. The lack of a public
declaration notwithstanding, Felix-Paganon reaffirmed
France's agreement on our "strategic vision" of how best to
resolve the Western Sahara conflict.


3. (C) The private discussions with the Algerians on this
subject has been relatively easy, according to Felix-Paganon,
with both sides essentially agreeing to disagree and France
emphasizing its increasing concerns about security in
northwest Africa. The Algerians, however, are especially
sensitive in terms of public expressions of French policy on
this and other matters. More broadly, Felix-Paganon cited
the areas of constant and pessimistic French reflection
regarding Algeria that Embassy Paris has repeatedly reported:
the stalled reform process, the stagnant economy, the
unlikelihood of significant -- or positive -- political
change, and the related expectation that an ailing Bouteflika
will seek a third term in office.


4. (C) Welch asked about North African views of the July 13
summit. DAS-equivalent for North Africa Nathalie Loiseau
responded that Libyan leader Qadhafi may have gone too far in
his speech to participants at the recent mini-summit he
convened in Tripoli. The GOF has interpreted the absence of
a concluding communique as signifying disagreement with the
criticisms of the Union for the Mediterranean that Qadhafi
spelled out. In addition, the failure of Morocco or Egypt to
attend was a strong signal to Qadhafi that other Arab leaders
did not wish to associate themselves with his views. Loiseau
claimed that a French source "inside the conference room"
reported that the other leaders told Qadhafi that the best
way for Libya to contest and change the proposed union was
through participation. FM Kouchner's NEA adviser Christophe
Bigot interjected that Bouteflika would be hard pressed not
to attend, since Morocco and Tunisia will do so, although he
would likely wait until the last minute to decide. Syrian
President Asad has already said he would likely attend as the
price he needs to pay for reducing international isolation
and regaining respectability.


5. (C) When asked how France assesses Qadhafi's view of the
union, Bigot contended Qadhafi does not "need" the union,
particularly after his visit to Paris in December, and Libya,
in any event, is not a participant in the EU's Barcelona
Process. Felix-Paganon agreed and said the question for

PARIS 00001174 002.2 OF 002


Qadhafi regarding the July 13 summit was whether to boycott
altogether or send a lower level representative. (Note:
This assertion predated subsequent media and Elysee
speculation that Qadhafi might actually attend the summit in
part to voice his concerns about the Union in person. End
note) He added that firm opposition from Qadhafi could
complicate participation for the other Arabs, who will
already be digesting the upgrade in the EU's relationship
with Israel. Felix-Paganon noted, in this context, that
Israeli PM Olmert had already accepted his invitation to
attend the Paris summit.


6. (C) Welch, at Felix-Paganon's request, provided a short
update on the status of U.S./Libyan relations, focused on
discussions to achieve a comprehensive,
government-to-government settlement of outstanding terrorist
claims by U.S. victims and their families.


7. (U) A/S Welch has cleared this cable.


8. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Fran ce

STAPLETON