NEA A/S WELCH DISCUSSION OF IRAQ AT FRENCH MFA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001170

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2018
TAGS: PREL KDEM PTER PINS EUN FR IZ IR
SUBJECT: NEA A/S WELCH DISCUSSION OF IRAQ AT FRENCH MFA,
JUNE 12, 2008

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4. (b),(d).

1.. (SBU) NEA A/S Welch held extensive bilateral
consultations on key NEA issues with French MFA counterparts
in Paris on June 12. This cable focuses on Iraq; other
topics reported septel (notal). Participants included:

USG
---

--NEA A/S David Welch
--Deputy Legal Adviser Jonathan Schwartz
--Embassy Paris Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt
--Embassy Paris NEA Watcher (notetaker)
--NEA Staff Assistant Mustafa Popal

GOF
---

--French MFA NEA A/S-equivalent Jean Felix-Paganon
--French MFA NEA Adviser to the Foreign Minister, Christophe
Bigot
--French MFA IO Adviser to the Foreign Minister Alice Guitton
--French MFA DAS-equivalent for Iran/Iraq/Arabian Peninsula
Franck Gellet
--French MFA IO desk officer for NEA Salina Grenet
--French MFA Iraq desk Officer Olivier Masseret (notetaker)


2. (C) A/S Welch said he would not talk in detail about the
situation on the ground but speak instead about the Iraqi
government, stabilizing it in the face of the Iranian threat,
and helping reintegrate Iraq in the Arab world. He referred
to the progress we have made in creating different
international fora related to Iraq -- the Friends, the
Neighbors, the GCC 3, and ICI -- all of which allow for more
convincing discussion of Iraq. The UAE FM visit is bound to
be followed by others. Jordan, Bahrain, and the UAE will
increase their interaction with Iraq. Kuwait's engagement
may seem less prominent but is also less of a problem because
it is much more connected in less visible ways to what is
happening in Iraq. Saudi King Abdallah, Welch continued,
will not quickly change his mind about Iraqi PM Maliki, but
others in Saudi Arabia are prepared to think differently.
Arab League SecGen Amr Musa is thinking about organizing a
national reconciliation conference inside Iraq, which the USG
thinks would be a good idea but the Iraqis are resistant
because they consider it interference and patronizing. Welch
expressed hope that we can change the overall perspective
within the region and among Iraqis in the next few months.
Arab engagement, he maintained, was most important given the
Arab conception of Iraq as the historical bulwark against
Persian hegemony.


3. (C) The Arabs have not yet come to grips with a
Shi'a-dominated regime in Baghdad, in French MFA NEA
A/S-equivalent Felix-Paganon's opinion. Things are moving
but slowly. He further described relations among Iraqi Shi'a
as increasingly more complicated than between Sunni and
Shi'a. The other Arab regimes have become too used to the
idea, since the 1930s, of a Sunni-dominated Iraq. It will
take time to change that sentiment and for the other Arabs to
accept that their role and objective should be promoting
dialogue and peace among the competing factions and not just
reinforcing the Sunnis' position. PM Maliki, however, is
principally seeking to weaken external Arab efforts toward
Iraq. Felix-Paganon also asserted that, while a meaningful
intra-Iraqi dialogue cannot occur without some involvement or
support by Iraq's neighbors, most of them do not presently
see Iraq as a fully independent country. Without calling for
a U.S. pullout, he observed that the U.S. role in Iraq makes
matters more complicated for Iraq's neighbors.


4. (C) Felix-Paganon affirmed that "what we can do, we will
try to do." This included trying to work with Iraq's Shi'a
and Iraq's neighbors. All of France's Iraqi interlocutors,
however, raise the same concerns about the framework
agreement and SOFA being negotiated with the U.S. Everyone
describes the drafts under discussion as "unsellable," given
U.S.-proposed terms. When Welch asked what specific points
the Iraqis were raising in this regard, Felix-Paganon cited
detention of prisoners and immunities (with objections
focused more on private security companies than the U.S.
military). The Iraqis claim to want an end to the UN mandate
for the presence of foreign troops but are now raising the
possible need to extend the mandate beyond its planned expiry
at the end of 2008. Felix-Paganon stated that the Iraqis
doubt that their parliament would be able to ratify any
accord by the USG's current deadline. Welch noted that the
USG sees things differently than the Iraqis in some crucial
respects, e.g., the possibility of a gradual transition from

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a Chapter VII mandate to something directly negotiated as
well as Iraq's insistence on obtaining parliamentary
ratification for any agreements (the USG regards any text as
an executive agreement not subject to Congressional
approval). The USG hopes to avoid another UNSC mandate. The
Bush administration also hopes to exit office with a better
regional situation and foundation for U.S. involvement with
Iraq for the next president. Arab public opinion may be
opposed to the U.S. troop presence, but no Arab regime wants
an early pullout. Welch repeated our encouragement that
France play an important role pressing Arab governments to
increase their engagement with Iraq.


5. (C) Felix-Paganon imagined that many players in Iraq and
the region would keep their options open until after the U.S.
elections, and he wondered how that would conflict with the
USG's desire to leave a "cleaner scene" for the next
administration. Based on FM Kouchner's recent visit to Iraq,
he detected no sense of urgency among Iraqis on defining
U.S./Iraqi relations given their preoccupation with security
and the local political situation. Bilaterally, the French
MFA continues to look at what it can do to improve
French/Iraqi ties. Felix-Paganon said that the MFA would
look first at how to use the newly opened embassy office in
Irbil, which will eventually include a cultural center as
well as a French economic/commercial officer among its staff.
Security issues will continue to stymie any moves to set up
a second office in either Basrah or Nasiriyah. Iraq's
minister of defense will visit France soon to shop for
weapons systems, which will necessitate a review of legal and
administrative restrictions against such sales dating back to
the Saddam era.


6. (C) On the European level, Felix-Paganon said that
France, once it assumes the EU presidency in July, would
recirculate a paper it had prepared with the UK and Sweden on
measures the EU could take to strengthen its support for
Iraq. Bigot noted that EU Higher Representative Solana and
German FM Steinmeier were expected to visit Iraq, although
neither had yet provided any confirmed dates. Felix-Paganon
was hopeful for symbolic gestures from the EU in the near to
medium term but doubted there would be much of substance
except as it has to do with Iraqi refugees. He explained
part of this as purely budgetary, with the European
Parliament, which sets budget priorities, not entirely
convinced of the political priority of devoting funds to help
Iraq. Welch, who called the Irbil office a good platform for
increased French engagement in Iraq, stated that the Iraqis
greatly appreciated Kouchner's recent visit and would
similarly appreciate visits by Solana and Steinmeier.


7. (U) A/S Welch has cleared this cable.

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