SURINAME: BOUTERSE BENEFITS FROM LOW APPROVAL RATINGS FOR

UNCLAS PARAMARIBO 000445

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA - JROSHOLT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR NS

SUBJECT: SURINAME: BOUTERSE BENEFITS FROM LOW APPROVAL RATINGS FOR
VENETIAAN GOVERNMENT


1. (U) SUMMARY. A new poll conducted by the Surinamese think tank,
Institute for Development Oriented Studies (IDOS),showed that if
the 2010 election were held today, Desi Bouterse and his newly
formed political bloc, the National Democratic Platform 2008 (NDP
2008),would win. Respondents that said they would vote for the NDP
2008 numbered 35.2 percent -- more than for any other party or bloc.
When asked if they thought the current government, the New Front
Plus Coalition, would win the election or be able to forge another
coalition government, those who responded in the negative numbered
65.4 percent. As to who they would like to see become the next
president, former President Jules Wijdenbosch and former military
leader Desi Bouterse received a respective 46.5 percent and 29.9
percent each, compared to 7.5 percent who said they would pick
current President Venetiaan. With only 19 months to go before the
election, and with the NDP 2008 hitting the campaign trail hard, it
would seem as if Suriname is on its way to yet another NDP-led
government. Yet 2005 pre-election polls also predicted an opposition
party win, so the game is definitely not over yet. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) According to a newly released poll from the Surinamese think
tank, Institute for Development Oriented Studies (IDOS),53 percent
of respondents said they were very dissatisfied with the general
situation in Suriname. The poll surveyed 1,034 people in Paramaribo
and the districts Commewijne, Nickerie, and Wanica. Furthermore,
57.4 percent of respondents disapproved of the government's policies
on basic food prices, saying that they are through their monthly
salary in the second week of the month -- leaving two weeks of
scrambling to get by. Respondents cited housing, land, food prices,
and education as areas the Venetiaan/Sardjoe government needed to
improve, but only 13 percent said they believed the ruling
government would manage to regroup and make life better for them.
This figure is down two points from the 15 percent who agreed during
the March 2008 IDOS poll.


3. (U) Asked if they thought the current government, the New Front
Plus Coalition, would win the 2010 elections, or win enough seats to
form a new coalition government, 65.4 percent decidedly responded
"no." Those who believed that Bouterse's political bloc would change
their personal situations and planned to vote for the NDP 2008
numbered 35.2 percent - more than for any other political party or
bloc. In comparison, only 16.4 percent of respondents said they
would vote for the ruling New Front Plus Coalition. As to which
politician those surveyed would like to see become president in
2010, former President Jules Wijdenbosch and former military leader
Desi Bouterse, both currently united in the NDP 2008, came out as
the frontrunners, with a respective 46.5 percent and 29.9 percent
each. Current President Ronald Venetiaan received a mere 7.5 percent
of respondents' votes.


4. (U) Andre Misiekaba, a NDP Parliamentarian, stated to the media
that it was very important that the party "does not get carried
away;" he added that it is important that the NDP 2008 "get a solid
majority in the coming elections." In reaction to the poll, Arnold
Kruisland, former Parliamentarian and high ranking NPS official
(National Party of Suriname, the party led by Venetiaan) told press
reporters that Venetiaan administration has brought Suriname down
the road to economic stability and development. He did not seem
bothered by the poll results and commented that "election time is a
different time." Kruisland noted that polls before the 2005
elections had also shown that "Jules Wijdenbosch would return as
President, and in the end he only got 6 (out of the 51) seats in
Parliament."


5. (U) COMMENT. The Venetiaan government has brought economic
stability and some level of development to Suriname. Voters,
however, question how much that economic development has trickled
down to benefit the man on the street. Discussions in the media and
protests in the streets have mainly surrounded the same issues:
food prices, and land and housing policies. The opposition 2008 NDP
bloc is outspoken in its promises to the electorate. If the
Venetiaan government, however, follows through on promises it has
made to the people over its two consecutive terms, and addresses the
voter's concerns, could regain voter support. END COMMENT.

BELL