LEADING UP TO SURINAMESE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2010,

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA - JROSHOLT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL NS

SUBJECT: LEADING UP TO SURINAMESE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2010,
DESI BOUTERSE STRENGTHENS HIS POLITICAL BLOC


1. (U) SUMMARY. Jules Wijdenbosch and Desi Bouterse agreed to
re-unite their two political parties, the Democratic National
Platform 2000 (DNP 2000) and the National Democratic Party (NDP),
according to reports. A union of Bouterse and Wijdenbosch, who went
from party colleagues and close personal friends to foes during
Wijdenbosch's tenure as President (1996-2000),would create a
politically stronger opposition. With general elections scheduled
for 2010, this is bad news for the ruling New Front Plus coalition,
which is small and still not yet in election mode. END SUMMARY

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BACKGROUND
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2. (U) When Desi Bouterse's National Democratic Party (NDP) won
elections in 1996, Bouterse nominated his protg Jules Wijdenbosch
for President, knowing their friendship would assure him a powerful
behind-the-scenes role. In 1997, Wijdenbosch appointed Bouterse as
"Advisor of State" in response to a Dutch warrant for Bouterse's
arrest on drug charges. The position of Advisor brought former
military strongman Bouterse back to the center of power and provided
him the cover of diplomatic immunity when traveling abroad.
However, the relationship between Suriname and the Netherlands
soured due to Bouterse's involvement in government, and the
country's economy deteriorated; Wijdenbosch fired Bouterse in early
1999, and later that year saw himself and his government kicked out
of power by mass demonstrations in May. The subsequent election
brought the New Front coalition into its leadership role, and the
National Party of Suriname's (NPS) Ronald Venetiaan into the
presidency. Wijdenbosch subsequently established his own political
party, Democratic National Platform 2000 (DNP 2000),seeming to put
a definitive end not only to his partnership with Bouterse, but to
the power struggle within the NDP.

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Gearing Up for the 2010 Elections
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3. (SBU) The rivalry between NDP and DNP 2000 hurt them both
during the 2005 elections (when President Venetiaan and his New
Front Plus coalition won again),with the DNP 2000's showing
particularly disappointing. The opposition in Suriname's 51-member
Parliament consists of NDP with 15 seats, the Alliance for Progress
(VVV) with 5 seats, and Alternative 1 (A1) with 2 seats. VVV is a
coalition of DNP 2000 (3 seats) and two smaller parties (1 seat
each). Guno Castelen, Member of Parliament and Secretary of ruling
coalition party the SPA (Suriname Labor Party),told Embassy staff
it is unlikely that DNP 2000 formally joining the NDP now will shake
Parliament up; the opposition parties in Parliament have already
been working together informally since 2006. Castelen said he is
convinced that the move is part of the current NDP roadmap to the
2010 elections, and conveyed that the ruling New Front Plus
coalition, as a whole, is not yet in election mode. When asked if
there is a plan to counter the NDP move, the senior politician
admitted the eight-party coalition is so caught up in trying to stay
together that planning for the 2010 elections is not yet on the
agenda.


5. (U) Desi Bouterse and Jules Wijdenbosch are both charismatic
figures with large followings. Many Surinamers will never vote for
Bouterse because of his involvement in the December 1982 killing of
15 opponents to his regime, and Wijdenbosch is seen as a safer
choice. However, many Surinamers dislike Wijdenbosch because of
alleged corruption during his presidency and his poor management of
the country's economy. His stock soared in 2007, however, when the
United National International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea decided
the maritime border dispute with Guyana in a manner widely
considered favorable to Guyana. Wijdenbosch's defense of national
interests in keeping the maritime area free of Guyanese oil
prospecting during his Presidency remains his strongest calling
card.

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) Since October 2005, the NDP party objective has been to
send the Venetiaan government home early, but nothing has worked
thus far. However, with government approval ratings in the teens
and public cynicism towards the government high, if elections were
held today, the opposition would be a sure-fire winner. With just
over two years to go before general elections, NDP's merger with DNP
2000 is a smart move. It broadens the party base and helps take off
some of the NDP's rough edges (the 1980s military rule legacy
remains unpalatable for many). Bouterse and Wijdenbosch may

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subscribe to the theory "keep your friends close, but keep your
enemies closer," but the only real surprise of the alliance is that
Bouterse and Wijdenbosch put aside the personal animosity stemming
from their bitter break-up in 1999. The public must choose whether
to set aside similar animosities in 2010.

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