PANAMA: SUPPRESSED POLL SURFACES

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000330 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PM SUBJECT: PANAMA: SUPPRESSED POLL SURFACES Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo. Reasons: 1.4 (b),(c),and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Newly elected governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) National Executive Committee (CEN) Fifth Sub-Secretary Rodrigo "Rod" Diaz provided POLCOUNS with a bootleg copy of the PSM-SIGMA DOS April poll. In the wake of the Dichter and Neira April poll, portions of which have been published during the week of April 20, the results of this poll seem unremarkable and pedestrian. Prepared for PANAMA City television broadcaster Telemetro, this PSM-SIGMA DOS poll was, however, suppressed and never released publicly when it raised the hackles of a number of political leaders. This poll was the first poll to show that: -- Democratic Change (CD) presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli no longer held the lead; -- PRD presidential nomination candidate Balbina Herrera took over the lead; -- PRD presidential nomination candidate and Mayor of PANAMA City Juan Carlos Navarro's approval ratings had declined; and -- Panamenista presidential nomination candidates Alberto Vallarino and Juan Carlos Navarro were tied essentially, but Martinelli was seen as the candidate more capable of unifying the opposition. Dichter and Neira's April poll set off shock waves amongst Panama's political establishment, but the PSM-SIGMA DOS poll was the first tremor. (Note: PSM-SIGMA DOS's poll was conducted March 28-31, but published in April. For simplicity's sake, the poll will be referred to as the April poll.) End Summary. -------------- Approval for Torrijos Administration -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Approval for the President Torrijos has remained essentially steady from September 2007 to April 2008, according to PSM-SIGMA DOS's September, January and April polls: Poll Approval Disapproval No Answer -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- Sept 2007 48% 45% 7% Jan 2008 50% 47% 3% Apr 2008 50% 47% 3% -------------- Assessing Navarro as Mayor -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Looking at the job approval rating for PRD presidential nomination candidate and Mayor of PANAMA City Juan Carlos Navarro's approval ratings, PSM-SIGMA DOS detected a decrease in the percentage of respondents who believed that Navarro had performed well or very well. In April, 60 percent of respondents characterized his performace as good (54 percent) or very good (16 percent) down ten points from January when 9 percent reported his performance to be very good and 61 percent reported it to be good. Over the same period, respondents characterizing his performance as bad or very bad grew 2 percent points, and those who did not know or respond remained steady at 1 percent. -------------- Balbina Most Popular PRD Candidate -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In the April poll, asked in an open question "who should be the PRD presidential candidate," 45 percent of respondents said Balbina Herrera, 31 percent Navarro, 5 percent Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares, 2 percent 1st VP and FM Samuel Lewis, 2 percent other, 2 percent Laurentino Cortizo, and 14 percent did not know or respond. Herrera's numbers essentially remained steady across PSM-SIGMA DOS's three polls (45% in April 2008; 46 % in January 2008; and 43 % in September 2007). Navarro's numbers grew during the same period (31 % in April, 29% in January; 25% in September). El Toro's support eroded significantly over the same period (5% in April; 10% in January; 15% in September). Lewis tied "other" and also-ran Cortizo and was beat resoundingly by "do not know/did not respond." -------------- Martinelli Best Opposition Candidate -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Martinelli continued to be the top choice of respondents when asked which opposition candidate would be the opposition's best presidential candidate, though support for him eroded somewhat falling 6 points (35% in April; 41% in January; 31 percent in September) Vallarino and Varela were essentially tied in April on this question with Vallarino polling 20 percent and Varela polling 21 percent. Varela's support on this question grew the most though jumping from 13 percent in September and 14 percent in January, while Vallarino's support recovered from 16 percent in January returning to the 20 percent level polled in September. Support for Moral Vanguard of the National (VMP) presidential candidate Guillermo Endara eroded significantly (18% in September; 12% in January; 9 percent in April). -------------- If Generals Today (April),Herrera Would Win -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Were the elections to have been held in April, 28 percent of respondents said they would vote for Herrera holding steady from her January level and rising one point from her September level. According to PSM-SIGMA DOS's April poll, Herrera had succeeded in toppling Martinelli from the lead that he had maintain consistently for over two years at the head of the polls. Martinelli polled 18 percent in April, 19 percent in January, and 16 percent in September on this question. Navarro continued to trail Herrera badly polling 14 percent in April, 11 percent in January, and 9 percent in September. Varela edged out Vallarino, but only by one point, polling 10 percent in April, 7 percent in January, and 4 percent in September. Vallarino polled 9 percent in April, 10 percent in January, and 11 percent in January. Both Endara and Perez Balladares saw their support continue to erode. Endara polled 4 percent in April, 7 percent in January, and 10 percent in September. Perez Balladares polled 2 percent in April, 4 percent in January, and 9 percent in September. Navarro, Patriotic Union (UP) President Guillermo "Billy" Ford, Panamenista presidential nomination candidate Marco Ameglio were all also-rans polling at or below 3 percent. -------------- Who Can Unify the Opposition? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Martinelli was the choice of 28 percent of respondents when asked which candidate could unify the opposition, falling from 34 percent in January and having polled 24 percent in September. Among Panamenista candidates though, Varela pulled even with Vallarino. On this question, Vallarino polled 20 percent in April, 16 percent in January, and 21 percent in September. Varela polled 19 percent in April, 12 percent in January, and 10 percent in September. Endara, Ford, and Ameglio saw their low levels of support on this question continue to erode. -------------- Varela Leads Inside Panamenista Party -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Though neck-in-neck on opposition-wide polling questions and the who-can-unify-the-opposition question, Varela polled ten points ahead of Vallarino taking 45 percent to Vallarino's 35 percent. Thirteen percent of respondents did not know or did not respond, and Ameglio polled 7 percent. (Note: It is not clear whether this question was asked only of Panamenista party members. It appears to have been asked of all respondents, something that would skew the responses to this question.) -------------- Technical Information -------------- ¶9. (SBU) PSM-SIGMA DOS PANAMA conducted this poll from March 28 to March 31. All interviews were conducted face-to-face. Only adults over the age of 18 were interviewed in their homes. Only one person per home was interviewed. Homes were selected randomly, and the number of homes in a particular area were in proportion for general population distribution. Interviews were distributed evenly between men and women. No interviews were conducted by telephone, at places or work, public places or on the street. Interviews were distributed by age group, socio-economic status, and education in proportion with general population distribution. A total of 1,225 people were interviewed across the country, except in areas where the interviewers safety could not reasonably be assured. The company asserts a 95 percent level of confidence and that the margin of error is 2.8 percent. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Had this poll been released, it would have set off the political shock waves that the piecemeal publication by La Prensa of the April Dichter and Neira poll did a few weeks later. Martinelli has been toppled from his two-year plus reign at the top of the polls by Herrera. He nonetheless remains the preferred option, at least according to this poll, for unifying the opposition, something that rankles Panamenista leaders who perceive it to be their God given right to hold the top of the ticket on any opposition coalition ticket. Vallarino, who has persistently been making the argument that he is the best Panamenista candidate to unify the opposition, must now be looking over his shoulder at Varela who has pulled even on this question. The poll does not clarify the state of the race for the Panamenista nomination as most measures have Varela and Vallarino essentially even and the one question giving Varela a notable lead is of questionable value as non-Panamenista Party members may have responded to the closed question on the Panamenista race. Radio talk show host and political commentator Edwin Cabrera told POLCOUNS April 25 that he had seen an internal Panamenista Party poll that showed Varela and Vallarino in a dead heat. According to Cabrera, 40 percent of Panamenista Party members were undecided. In an e-mail to POL, Varela asserted that he was beating Varela 2 to 1 and that he would soon share his polling data with the Embassy, a pledge he has often made but never fulfilled. EATON