PANAMA POST: 8TH EDITION; VOLUME II

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000206 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PM SUBJECT: PANAMA POST: 8TH EDITION; VOLUME II REF: PANAMA 181 (AND PREVIOUS) Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)/. -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The first week of March was a busy one for the Panama post. As the PRD wound down its congressillos in advance of its March 9 convention, Ambassador engaged the Panamenista Party's leading candidates for its presidential nomination, the knife was stuck in a CID Gallup poll, and one mutual assistance pact was born while another languished on its deathbed. Our headlines this week: -- As governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) internal elections wind down, vote buying rises in price and goes high-tech; -- Movement of Liberal Republican Nationalists (MOLIRENA) President Sergio Gonzalez-Ruiz looks for an alliance partner; -- Confident Panamenista presidential nomination candidate Juan Carlos Varela lunches with Ambassador; -- Who killed the CID Gallup poll?: A Panamanian Political Murder Mystery -- "El Pacto de Chame? -- Panamenista presidential nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino and Moral Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) presidential candidate Guillermo Endara agree to "mutual support?; -- Whither the other "Pacto de Chame" -- Do Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera and Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro have a deal?; -- Herrera gives testy, impromptu interview to La Estrella; and -- Former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares and National Assembly President Pedro Miguel Gonzalez (PMG) scheme. The second week of March looks to be a very busy week as well, beginning with the PRD's convention on Sunday, March 9. Also, Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro will formally announce his candidacy for the PRD presidential nomination on Wednesday, March 12. -------------- -------------- PRD Internals: Voting Buying Gets Expensive, Goes High Tech -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) "A lot of money is being thrown around in our internal elections," National Assembly Majority Leader Leandro Avila told POLCOUNS on February 27. According to Avila, the average cost of each PRD delegated that was elected on January 12 to vote your way in a congressillo was about USD 500, up from US 250-500. Allegedly long-timer PRD members Ramon Ashby and Jose "Chavitin" Huertas were distributing a lot of cash. Unfortunately for many, Avila said that the entrance of Rod Diaz, candidate for the PRD National Executive Committee (CEN) 5th Sub-Secretary seat, had raised the price of things by offering up to USD 2,500 per head in congressillos. Separately, former PRD National Directors Committee (CDN) member Bernabe Perez told the Panama Post on March 3 that some delegates casting their votes in congressillos had taken cell phone cameras into the voting booth to snap pictures of their completed ballots as proof that they had voted as requested so that they could collect their payments. "It has been a filthy competition," Perez said. Political analyst Jose Blandon (the father, not Jose Blandon the son who is a Panamenista National Assembly deputy) confirmed to Ambassador on March 7 that significant government resources were being used to sway the voting. First VP and FM "Samuel Lewis was told to use all the resources possible -- you know exactly what that means -- to stop Pedro Miguel Gonzalez from winning the 3rd sub-Secretary seat," Blandon said, for example. (Note: Blandon has close long-term links to the PRD and a close personal relationship with Lewis.) ¶3. (C) Comment: Rumors and claims of vote buying in the PRD internal elections are rampant and further contribute to a widely held perception that these PRD internals are some of the most bruising in recent memory. The Electoral Tribunal has rushed out a new regulation that forbids voters from taking cell phone cameras or any other electronic devices into the voting booth. As for Diaz, he is considered a shoe-in for the 5th Sub-Secretary seat. Blandon characterized these PRD internal elections as the first in history in which there was no obvious, pre-ordained presidential candidate for the PRD. Should Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera succeed in getting herself, Minister of Education Belgis Castro, National Assembly President Pedro Miguel Gonzalez, and National Assembly Deputy Hector Aleman on to the CEN, Herrera will control the CEN, therefore the PRD, and be well positioned to launch a focused campaign for president, Blandon explained. Blandon told Ambassador to watch three races closely to see who wins control of the PRD: the races for: CEN position: Torrijos' Herrera's Candidate: Candidate: -------------- -------------- -------------- 2nd sub-Secretary Mitchell Doens Hector Aleman 3rd sub-Secretary Rivera Pedro Miguel Gonzalez 4th sub-Secretary Belgis Castro Belgis Castro The Panama Post will be out in force covering the PRD convention. -------------- MOLIRENA President Leans Toward Martinelli -------------- ¶4. (C) "The party is in very bad shape," MOLIRENA President Sergio Gonzalez-Ruiz told POLCOUNS on September 27. "We are bankrupt, aging, failing to attract new blood, fighting amongst ourselves, and largely on life support." Eager to form an alliance however to sustain the party, Gonzalez-Ruiz offered, "We do have something to offer an alliance partner though: a national structure and a presence in ninety-three percent of Panama's precincts (corregimientos)." While he said he would like align MOLIRENA with Democratic Change (CD) presidential aspirant Ricardo Martinelli, Gonzalez-Ruiz acknowledged that he would need to bring along the rest of his party. Separately, the Panama Post has heard from several sources, including Gonzalez-Ruiz, that long-time MOLIRENA member and leader Arturo Vallarino prefers to put the party in alliance with Panamenista presidential nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino (no relation). Until there was better definition of the internal Panamenista campaign, Gonzalez-Ruiz said that alliance forming efforts were unlikely to take much shape. ¶5. (C) Comment: MOLIRENA is indeed a party that is up against the ropes. It hemorrhaged a number of luminaries, including Guillermo "Billy" Ford who now heads the Patriotic Union (UP) party. It is not clear though what MOLIRENA would indeed bring much to the table. Martinelli political advisor Jimmy Papadimitriu, skeptical of the value of an alliance with MOLIRENA, told POLCOUNS March 5, "They are cannibals simply eating one another in that party. There will only be a carcass left." Indeed, former MOLIRENA President Gisela Chung remains in a scorched earth battle with Gonzalez-Ruiz for her "proportional representation" in the party's structures. -------------- -------------- Varela Exudes Confidence During Lunch with Ambassador -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Panamenista presidential nomination candidate Juan Carlos Varela confidently asserted to Ambassador March 4 that he would defeat Vallarino. Accompanied by his brother and campaign manager Jose Luis "Popi" Varela, Varela said that he saw four races: (1) the internal Panamenista race between him and Vallarino; (2) the subsequent race between him and Martinelli; (3) the PRD race between Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera and Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Varela, and (4) the race between the winners of #2 and #3. Varela explained that he was in the second phase of his campaign, the listening phase. The first phase was completed with his launch and nationwide tour where he re-introduced himself as a presidential candidate, not simply the president of the Panamenista Party. "We have already seen a jump in my numbers following my reintroduction," Varela asserted. In the current second phase, Varela said he would tour the country to learn more about the real concerns of the public. Then in late April/early May, before Panamenista candidates had to formally file their candidacies on May 9, Varela said he would start the third and final stage of his primary campaign by laying out a program of government. Varela said that he was leading Vallarino among Panamenista voters by 12 points (Varela 40 percent; Vallarino 28 percent),according to an unreleased CID Gallup poll (see para 8-10). ¶7. (C) Comment: A man, a plan, Panama -- Varela believes that he is the man with a plan who is on track to be president of Panama. His relations with Martinelli strained, Varela told the Ambassador that the two opposition leaders would have dinner later the same night. Clearly, Varela believes Martinelli is more of a hurdle to be overcome than his fellow Panamenista Vallarino. Furthermore, in the wake of her exceptional poll numbers, Varela was convinced that Herrera would be the PRD presidential nominee. Well, Papadimitriu confirmed that Martinelli and Varela patched things up over dinner at Panama City businessman Felipo Sosa's home on March 4, but he added, "I am not too sure how long this patch will hold." -------------- A CID Gallup Poll Gets Murdered: Who Did It? -------------- ¶8. (C) Panamanians awoke March 4 to see reported on the cover of Panama-America that this Panama City right of center daily newspaper had severed its seventeen year relationship with regional polling outfit CID Gallup. Varela asserted to Ambassador on March 4 that Martinelli, "who always has a poll showing he is ahead under his arm," had quashed publication of this poll because it showed Varela leading Martinelli. Asked by POLCOUNS whether Martinelli killed this poll, Papadimitriu said, "Vallarino, not Martinelli, squashed the CID Gallup poll. Alberto leaned hard on Panama-America to not publish that poll." Furthermore, Papadimitiru asserted that Vallarino had tried to quash the Dichter and Neira poll published recently by La Prensa (reftel) since it showed him performing so poorly. Papadimitriu noted, "We have done a lot of dirty tricks already in this campaign, but we did not do this one," referring to efforts to quash the CID Gallup poll. Separately though, the Panama Post learned from one source close to CID Gallup that Martinelli did indeed pressure Panama-America to suppress this poll by threatening to pull his Super99 supermarkets chain's advertising from the paper; the Super99 account is one of the paper's largest advertising accounts. ¶9. (U) CID Gallup's poll shows Varela securing 40 percent support of Panamenista Party members who intend to vote in contrast to Vallarino's 28 percent support. The same poll shows Varela with 26 percent support among opposition candidates in contrast to Martinelli's 22 percent showing Vallarino's 14 percent showing. This nationwide (except for islands) poll conducted February 7 to 12 included 1,446 interviews in homes, in person, and by telephone. Only a total of 180 interviewees identified themselves as Panamenista Party members who were then asked to indicate their voter preference among Panamenista primary presidential nomination aspirants. Only 345 prospective voters identified themselves as "opposition members" and were subsequently asked their preference among opposition candidates. The same poll indicated that 52 percent of PRD party members supported Herrera leading Navarro who garnered only 19 percent support. A total of 378 interviewees identified themselves as PRD members and were asked to answer the PRD voter intention question. ¶10. (C) Comment: This CID Gallup poll is suspect given the unusually small sample sizes for key questions and the pollsters at least partial reliance on telephone interviews. (Note: Telephone interviews tend to skew to higher socio-economic brackets as many Panamanians do not have ready access to phones at home or at work.) Additionally, the question regarding preferences among opposition candidates was skewed by the inclusion of three Panamenista candidates running against one candidate from each of the other opposition parties. Vallarino would not be the sole beneficiary of suppression of this poll; its publication would have tarnished Martinelli's front-runner status as well. Given its sloppiness though and the fact that it does not track at all with other polling, the best that can be said for this poll that was strangled in its crib is that confirmation will be needed to see if there is a trend that favors Varela in the Panamenista Party and whether Martinelli is indeed losing so much ground to others in the opposition. "Ultimately, Ricardo's numbers have to come down as other opposition candidates ramp up their campaigns." Papadimitriu said, "I have tried to explain that to Ricardo." Stay tuned. -------------- -------------- "El Pacto de Chame:" Vallarino-Endara Mutual Support Agreement -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) Vallarino and Endara announced March 5, following their lunch at La Nueva Posada restaurant in the seashore village of Gorgona, that they had agreed to support one another mutually, as reported by major Panama City media outlets. From media accounts, it looks like fellow former presidential candidate Jose Miguel Aleman brokered this meeting. Vallarino asked the press rhetorically, "If we (the Panamenista Party) are not internally united, how are going to be able to preach unity to the Moral Vanguard of the Nation and other opposition parties?" At lunch with Ambassador on March 6, Vallarino explained, "Essentially what happened was that Endara, who has a significant quota of support inside the Panamenista party, endorsed me." ¶12. (C) Comment: So what does this mean? Endara, broke and slumping in the polls, is desperate for media attention and surely welcomed this opportunity to raise his profile. Endara, who has repeatedly noted that in his heart of hearts he is a true Panamenista probably also welcomed the opportunity believing it would allow him a chance to remind Panamenista voters that he is still an option. Vallarino for his part hoped to co-opt Endara's base of support inside the Panamenista Party to his cause. Blandon asserted that Vallarino stole a march on both Martinelli and Varela catching them completely off guard; "The message of the Vallarino-Endara alliance is that Vallarino can unify the opposition. A vote for Vallarino, including those votes from pro-Endara Panamenistas is a vote for opposition unity." Vallarino still needs to defeat Varela and Marco Ameglio to secure the Panamenista Party's presidential nomination. Vallarino has been reaching out to prospective alliance partners, including MOLIRENA and UP, trying put something together. While UP's President Guillermo "Billy" Ford stiff armed Vallarino, MOLIRENA's Gonzalez-Ruiz at least heard Vallarino out. -------------- -------------- Wither the Other Pacto: Herrera's ad Navarro's Agreement -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) "Balbina (Herrera) told Juan Carlos (Navarro) 'I'll support you as long as you are ahead of me in the polls," PRD women's leader Irasema de Ahumada told the Panama Post on March 3. Allegedly, Herrera told Navarro that if she was ahead of him that she would not be the one to blame. De Ahumada said she decided to ask Herrera directly concerning her electoral aspirations -- to run for Panama City Mayor or for President -- in the wake of what is becoming an overheated parlor game of trying to determine Herrera's true intentions. "The Herrera-Navarro pact is dead; it existed at one point, but it's now dead," Blandon told the Ambassador. Blandon predicted that Hector Aleman would push a resolution at the PRD convention calling on Herrera to run for president, thereby putting the final nail in the coffin of this pact by making her candidacy a "call from the people." Learning of this, Blandon said, Navarro did not waste any time getting all the Panama City and San Miguelito precinct representatives and city councilmen to sign a resolution calling on Navarro to be the party's candidate. (Note: Panama City and San Miguelito are Panama's most vote rich municipalities.) ¶14. (C) Comment: It is widely believed, both inside the PRD and among opposition leaders that Herrera will run and that she will be the PRD candidate to beat for president of the republic. -------------- A Testy Herrera Gives Impromptu Interview -------------- ¶15. (U) "What pact? What pact?" Herrera told Panama broadsheet daily La Estrella in an interview published on March 6. Testy, Herrera answered a series of questions regarding her political aspirations in an impromptu interview on the campaign trail. Asked whether an emerging split in the PRD would break her pact to support Navarro for the presidency, Herrera responded, "I can tell you, if you were criss-crossing the country as I am doing, I believe that you would have an x-ray of my party. Nobody, nobody -- let my underscore -- nobody is going to destroy the unity of my party." Doggedly, Herrera stated that she supported her President (Torrijos) as a Minister and her Secretary General (Torrijos) as a sub-Secretary, that she was working to fulfill her party's 25-year vision for Panama, and that she was working with her task force to implement that vision. ¶16. (C) Comment: Herrera was offered an opportunity to stand up publicly for her alleged pact with Navarro and decided to take a pass. Taking refuge in party solidarity, Herrera is laying the groundwork to launch her campaign for president as being in response to the demands of the PRD rank-and-file. Indeed, her campaign for the presidency of the PRD has enabled her to deploy a nationwide team that can easily be turned to supporting her campaign for the presidency of the republic. -------------- Vallarino Lunches with Ambassador -------------- ¶17. (C) "Polls don't mean much in the primaries," Panamenista presidential nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino told Ambassador over lunch on March 6. "Panamenistas are only one out of every ten voters, so one would need to contact 10,000 people to get a decent sample by which to measure voter intent in the party." Nonetheless, Vallarino was confident that he was making good progress with his campaign. "I'm listening to a lot of people as I travel from one end of Panama to the next, trying to get a sense for their concerns." Vallarino said that the cost of living, access to clean water, and law and order topped the issues that voters raised with him. Noting that he would be touring San Miguelito later in the day, Vallarino complained that not enough time was being scheduled for him to meet with individual families and their neighbors that he was expected to see. "They have me only spending 20 minutes in these homes," Vallarino complained. "How can one jump start a word-of-mouth campaign by barely spending time with people?" Campaign advisor Jose Manuel Teran said, "You need to spend at least 45 minutes at each stop." ¶18. (C) Comment: Vallarino was confident -- almost smug --- that he would eventually win the Panamenista presidential nomination. He was also extremely short on specifics about his campaign strategy or policy proposals. He provided very few insights into how he would govern and argued that policy positions were not very important for the primaries, "electability" was. -------------- El Toro and PMG Meet Behind Close Doors -------------- ¶19. (C) Former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares met behind closed doors with National Assembly President Pedro Miguel Gonzalez (PMG) for dinner at Panama City restaurant Jade on March 5. While most of Panama City's journalists speculated about what these two PRD members discussed, Bernabe Perez -- who was present at the encounter -- reported that while both were courteous to one another they both warily keep their distance as well. Perez asserted that PMG was more assertive than El Toro claiming that PRD was "split" and in very bad condition. Allegedly, PMG said, "We need to take it back." As for El Toro, he was looking for backing to achieve his immediate goal to secure the PRD presidency on March 9. ¶20. (C) Comment: Perez's assessment is probably right on the money: "They are both mad, both against Torrijos. More than being joined by specific interests, the roads that each one finds himself on are leading to the same point. Were these two to work together that would put (President) Martin (Torrijos) in a very bad position and that has nothing to do with the convention on Sunday, but rather the future real leadership of the party and possibly the government." El Toro and PMG are not birds of a feather that flock together. El Toro anchors the party's authoritarian right wing, while PMG represents the party's left wing "tendency (tendencia)" faction. EATON