PUBLIC OPINION STABLE IN WAKE OF OMAR KHADR DVD

UNCLAS OTTAWA 000990



SENSITIVE



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PTER, PGOV, PREL, KPAO, AF, CA

SUBJ: PUBLIC OPINION STABLE IN WAKE OF OMAR KHADR DVD



REF: Ottawa 960



1. (SBU) A court-ordered release on July 16 of a DVD showing

Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) personnel interviewing

alleged Canadian terrorist Omar Khadr in 2003 at Guantanamo Bay has

failed to sway public opinion. According to a recent poll, eight in

ten Canadians who saw the interrogation footage did not subsequently

change their views on Khadr. Televised excerpts of the DVD showed

Khadr crying, showing his wounds, and complaining about sleep

deprivation to CSIS agents.



2. (U) Public opinion concerning the Khadr case continues to be

split evenly. According to a July 22 Toronto Star - Angus Reid

poll, 38 percent of Canadians believe that the government should

fight for Khadr's repatriation, while 38 percent think that he

should face the military tribunal at Guantanamo Bay. Twenty percent

of Canadians remain undecided on the issue. These results are

nearly identical to polls taken before Canadians saw the footage of

the interview.



3. (U) However, the new Angus Reid poll showed a slight increase in

sympathy for Khadr. Previously, 31 percent of Canadians said they

felt sympathetic to Khadr, although 46 percent said they did not.

After the DVD's release, sympathetic Canadians grew to 36 percent,

while those still unsympathetic fell to 41 percent.



4. (U) In a separate July 23 Ipsos Reid poll conducted for the

National Post, of the 22 percent who had changed their beliefs due

to the video, 18 percent said they had become more sympathetic to

Khadr, while 4 percent were less sympathetic. However, out of the

78 percent of Canadians who were not swayed by the footage, 50

percent stated they are not empathetic to Khadr, with 27 percent

expressing compassion for him. Overall, 60 percent of Canadians

remain in favor of Khadr facing trial in the U.S., with 40 percent

calling for his return to Canada, according to the Ipsos Reid poll.

Ontario residents are the least supportive of the Toronto-born

Khadr, with only 31 percent seeking his repatriation. Support for

Khadr's return is highest in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, at 56

percent and 52 percent, respectively.



5. (U) Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER has not commented publicly on

the DVD, but his new Director of Communications, Kory Teneycke,

affirmed PM Harper's support for the U.S. military tribunal by

stating that "there's a judicial process to deal with these serious

charges that have been leveled against Mr. Khadr, and that process,

not a political process, should determine his fate."



6. (SBU) Comment: The apparent hope of Khadr's Canadian and U.S.

lawyers that dramatic footage of Khadr's tears and complaints about

sleep deprivation in his meeting with CSIS officials would create a

groundswell of more favorable public opinion and impel the

government to reverse course seems to have failed. While a lively

public debate in the media and various blogs continues about Khadr -

whether a 15 year old should have been arrested in the first place,

whether he should face trial in Guantanamo Bay or in Canada, whether

the government should insist on his repatriation, whether there are

legal grounds for a prosecution in Canada in lieu of the U.S.

military tribunal, etc. - continues, the Parliamentary summer recess

(and lack of daily Question Period) and competing joys of the

all-too-brief Canadian summer essentially have kept any genuine

pressure off the government to change its policy, at least for the

time being. Should the tribunal find Khadr guilty, the Canadian

government will have another tough choice about whether to insist

that he return to serve jail time in Canada instead of the U.S. The

Qthat he return to serve jail time in Canada instead of the U.S. The

Liberals and the New Democratic Party will insist on the

affirmative, but popular sentiments against the entire Khadr family

may make it easier for the government to do nothing.



WILKINS