LIKELY CANADIAN SUPPORT OF INDIA SAFEGUARDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000965 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/RA JMCCLELLAN AND ISN/RA TKOCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018 TAGS: PARM PREL ETTC IN CA SUBJECT: LIKELY CANADIAN SUPPORT OF INDIA SAFEGUARDS AGREEMENT REF: STATE 74896 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: CANADA and the U.S. share a similar view of how to proceed with the India-IAEA Safeguards Agreement, and the Cabinet probably will decide to support it early in the week of July 28. Canadian officials are concerned, however, about how the Agreement's corrective measures will play before the IAEA Board of Governors and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG),particularly if India is too candid in its appraisal of them. CANADA would like to see the draft exception to be presented to the NSG in early September and to be considered for approval during a special NSG plenary on October 2. End summary. ¶2. (C) In response to reftel demarche, Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade Deputy Director for Nuclear Non-Proliferation Shawn Caza confirmed that CANADA shares "very similar views" on how to proceed with the India-IAEA Safeguards Agreement. Caza noted Canada's concern, however, about how the consideration of corrective measures, and their placement in the preamble of the Agreement, would play with NSG members. Moreover, he observed, there is reason to worry that India might articulate its honest assessment of corrective measures, and in so doing alienate the IAEA Board of Governors and elements of the NSG. ¶3. (C) Caza acknowledged that many states would probably ask the Indians to clarify their position on corrective measures, which could increase the potential for an Indian mis-step. He commented that it might be helpful for India to articulate something along the lines of the U.S. points on safeguards and corrective measures contained in reftel's para six, points four and nine. ¶4. (C) Based on DFAIT's understanding of the agreement, Caza noted that CANADA would be "covered" with respect to existing Canada-India-IAEA trilateral safeguards, and therefore getting Canadian support would not "be problematic." Caza added that during the week of July 28 the Cabinet would consider, and most likely approve, a senior officials' recommendation that CANADA support the safeguard agreement, and that it do so in time for the August 1 IAEA Board of Governors meeting. ¶5. (C) On timing and sequencing, Caza suggested that the draft exception be presented to the NSG the first week of September, with a view to winning approval at a special NSG plenary meeting on October 2. This time-line would give NSG members a month to study the exception language, assuming approval of the safeguards agreement by the IAEA on August 1. Importantly, it would take away an excuse for its opponents to show up at the NSG without a national position, according to Caza. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS