UNLIKELY SPRING FEDERAL ELECTION IN CANADA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000452

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PTER CA
SUBJECT: UNLIKELY SPRING FEDERAL ELECTION IN CANADA

REF: A. OTTAWA 394


B. OTTAWA 257

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. The Liberal Party is disinclined to
pursue a federal election in the spring, and possibly not
even in fall 2008. Organization and finances remain
problems, as does the weak popularity of its leader,
Stephane Dion. Three new Liberal Members of Parliament
from the March 17 by-elections have now taken office, but a
new poll shows dismal prospects for the Liberals in
vote-rich Quebec province. The best guess at this point
remains that the Commons will continue to sit at least
until its summer break begins in June, and that -- barring
some dramatic unforeseen event or issue -- fall 2008 will
bring more of the same. The government may be able in the
spring session to get a Commons vote of approval for the
revised Anti-Terrorism Act (which the Senate has already
passed) and various additional required budget bills, but
probably not much more. End Summary.


2. (C) Liberal Party National Director Greg Fergus
confirmed to PolMinCouns on April 2 that the Liberals now
saw "zero" prospects for bringing down the Conservative
government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the
remaining ten weeks of the spring session of the House of
Commons. He admitted that party leader Dion and Deputy
Leader Michael Ignatieff had initially been much more in
favor of pushing for an early election, but commented that
"cooler heads" within the party caucus -- "especially me"
-- had convinced them of the folly of pursuing this
course. Fergus said that he had argued successfully that
the Liberals could not expect any better results than its
current Commons standings any time soon, and would be
better off to conserve party financial and human resources
for a later campaign. He explained that the Conservatives
remained far ahead of the Liberals in fund-raising, but
said that the Liberals were about to engage in a new push
to collect more from small donors, drawing lessons in part
from the innovative Internet-based approaches by candidates
in the current U.S. Presidential campaign, which Fergus
said Canadians were watching with fascination. He added
that the unprecedented Canadian obsession with the U.S.
Presidential primaries might well argue against seeking a
fall 2008 federal election here, upping the prospects that
the next Canadian election would slip until 2009, even
possibly until the fixed date of October 19. He noted,
however, that the government would have to announce by June
2008 the dates (which it could nonetheless schedule
whenever it wanted) for two federal by-elections in Quebec
ridings, while predicting that the Liberals would at least
easily retain the seat a Liberal member was giving up (the
other seat now belongs to the Bloc Quebecois).


3. (C) Fergus also confessed that earlier Liberal hopes
that Dion's popularity would grow as the public "got to
know him" better had dimmed, despite efforts to jazz up his
image with more stylist eyeglasses and plenty of speaking
opportunities around the country. He expressed some
frustration that the party had been unable so far to
pinpoint any potential issue over which to defeat the
government in the Commons and then to use on the campaign
trail. Perhaps the closest it had come, he commented, was
with a Liberal-sponsored private member's bill giving tax
exemptions for contributions to private education savings
plan. The Commons passed the bill in March -- apparently,
to the surprise of the Conservatives -- only to have the
Qto the surprise of the Conservatives -- only to have the
government virtually kill it in its budget implementation
bill (which the Liberals then allowed to pass by
abstention). Fergus opined that, whatever issue eventually
brought down the government, the key issues in the next
campaign would likely end up being different, and would
almost certainly boil down to "character and leadership."
He claimed that the Liberals had benefited by default from
the ongoing inquiries (first, by the House Ethics
Committee, and soon by a respected academic appointed by
the Prime Minister) into the ties between former
Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and
German-Canadian lobbyist Karlheinz Schreiber. At the very
least, Fergus argued, the Conservatives would not be able
in the next election to use allegations of corruption or
cronyism against the Liberals, as they had effectively in

2006. He commented, however, that negative campaigning
typically did not work well in Canada.


4. (SBU) The mild Liberal "bounce" from the March 17
by-elections (ref a) was briefly evident as the three new
Liberal Members of Parliament (and one Conservative) took
their oaths of office with the re-opening of the Commons on
March 31. All three new Liberal members were quickly on
their feet with pointed questions during Question Period.

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Liberal Foreign Affairs Critic Bob Rae won widespread
applause when he rose again after years out of Parliament.
He also surprised fellow members by publicly embracing
Deputy Liberal leader Ignatieff -- a one-time close friend
but bitter rival in the 2005 Liberal leadership race --
leading Prime Minister Harper to quip that he was "still
trying to recover from the shows of affection over there."


5. (SBU) A March 13-26 CROP poll in Quebec province
underscored the difficulties the Liberals would face in the
next federal election, at least in that province (which is
second only to Ontario in the number of seats in the
Commons). The Conservatives were almost neck-in-neck with
the Bloc Quebecois in support (29 to 30 pct),while the
Liberals lagged at 20 pct. More striking was the antipathy
among francophones (85 pct of the population) and in Quebec
City: only 15 pct of the former supported the Liberals
(versus 35 and 30 pct for the Bloc and Conservatives,
respectively),while only 14 pct of the latter would vote
for the Liberals, well behind not only the Conservatives
(41 pct),the Bloc (25 pct) but even the New Democratic
Party (17 pct).


6. (C) Comment: With spring finally imminent in Ottawa,
the Liberals' winter blahs are still palpable and unlikely
to disappear anytime soon. This is good news for the
Conservatives' grip on power -- except for those Tories who
would prefer soon to face an election that some continue to
believe might bring them to a majority in the Commons. The
best guess at this point remains that the Commons will
continue to sit at least until its summer break begins in
June, and that -- barring some dramatic unforeseen event or
issue -- fall 2008 will bring more of the same. The
government may be able in the spring session to get a
Commons vote of approval for the revised Anti-Terrorism Act
(which the Senate has already passed) and various required
additional budget bills, but probably not much more.

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