CANADIANS EXPECT FRANCE, OR U.S., TO DEPLOY TROOPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000435 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS MARR NATO AF FR CA SUBJECT: CANADIANS EXPECT FRANCE, OR U.S., TO DEPLOY TROOPS TO KANDAHAR REF: A. OTTAWA 373 ¶B. OTTAWA 107 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Canada has redoubled its efforts to convince France to deploy a reinforced battle group to the Kandahar region of Afghanistan by February 2009. The Canadians are especially working to allay French concerns about improvised explosive devices (IEDs),which have emerged from military-to-military talks as the major "technical" issue in the way of a French deployment to the south. The Canadians nonetheless assume that U.S. forces will move quickly to fill the void if the French disappoint Canada at Bucharest. Looking to the future, Canada would like to work with the U.S. to improve Pakistan-Afghanistan border security, as well as to counter Iranian attempts to undermine ISAF. End summary. ¶2. (C) Canadian Forces (CF) Major General Chris Davis told members of the U.S.-Canada Permanent Joint Board on Defense (PJBD) on March 27 that he was "highly confident" that the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper could meet the Parliamentary requirement (ref a) -- in line with a recommendation from the independent Manley Panel (ref b) -- to secure a capable NATO partner with at least 1,000 additional troops to fight alongside the CF in Afghanistan's Kandahar province by February 2009. MG Davis expressed Canada's continued hope that France would volunteer; "I think it's done," he told the Board, adding that Canada expects to have private confirmation shortly before the NATO Summit in Bucharest, with a formal public announcement by President Sarkozy at the Summit. Davis also expressed Canada's appreciation for U.S. help in encouraging the French and in securing the other two requirements: dedicated medium-to-heavy-lift helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles for use in Kandahar. ¶3. (C/NF) CF Brigadier and Privy Council Milrep General Charles Sullivan clarified in a subsequent conversation that, despite Canada's effort, the French had still not committed to deploy to Kandahar. He cited, however, assurances from Washington that U.S. forces would join the Canadians if the French went elsewhere in Afghanistan as the foundation for MG Davis' assertion that a deal is "done." Gen. Sullivan said that senior French military officials remained concerned about French troops' lack of experience with, and suitable equipment to face, the type of IED threat prevalent in southern Afghanistan. Gen. Sullivan emphasized that French officials had raised this issue as "the major obstacle," and said that Canadian officials think they could satisfy France's technical concerns. France's other worries seemed to be "of a political nature," Gen. Sullivan commented. ¶4. (C) Also at the PJDB, MG Davis reiterated Canada's long-term commitment to its combat role in Afghanistan. Because the current Parliamentary extension would last only until the end of 2011, he predicted that Canada's political debate over its future role in Afghanistan would probably resume in earnest in 2010. In the meantime, he added, the 68,000 member CF would continue to support its deployment to Afghanistan despite the "tremendous strain" on its 13,000 QAfghanistan despite the "tremendous strain" on its 13,000 deployable troops, 3,000 of whom serve in Afghanistan at any given time. Looking ahead, MG Davis expressed worries about political uncertainty in Pakistan and the "Iranian game" of supporting the Taliban and undermining ISAF's ability to succeed. He said that Canada would likely devote increasing attention to these concerns. ¶5. (U) Official bio date: MAJOR-GENERAL C.J.R. DAVIS, DIRECTOR-GENERAL INTERNATIONAL SECURITY POLICY Major-General Christopher Davis attended the University of Manitoba, graduating in 1975 with a Bachelor of Science degree in Zoology. He subsequently enrolled in the Canadian Forces under the Direct Entry Officer program. Commissioned as an Armor officer, Major-General Davis served OTTAWA 00000435 002 OF 002 with the Royal Canadian Dragoons and the 8th Canadian Hussars (Princess Louise's) in a variety of regimental appointments in Canada and with NATO forces in Germany. Major-General Davis has filled a number of staff appointments. Most notable were Chief of Staff, Canadian Contingent United Nations Protection Force in the former Yugoslavia in 1995, Chief of Staff of the Multi-National Division (South-West) as part of the NATO Stabilization Force in Bosnia-Herzegovina from August 2002 to July 2003, Director of Land Requirements at Land Force Headquarters, National Defence Headquarters and Director of Operations, Defence/International Security, Foreign and Defence Policy Secretariat, Privy Council Office. SIPDIS He has commanded soldiers from troop to formation level to include command of the Armor School at the Combat Training Center, Canadian Forces Base Gagetown from 1993 to 1995 and subsequent command of the Combat Training Centre from August 2003 to July 2005. Major-General Davis is a graduate of the Canadian Forces Command and Staff College, the Army Technical Staff Course (Royal Military College of Science, Cranfield University, Shrivenham, UK),the Advanced Military Studies Course, and the National Security Studies Course. Major-General Davis assumed his present appointment as Director-General International Security Policy at National Defence Headquarters in July 2007. ¶6. (SBU) Note: MG Davis recently became "promotable" to Lieutenant General and will take over as Canada's senior Milrep to NATO in the summer of 2008. End note. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada BREESE