CANADA ON CUBA

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000294 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EAID CU CA SUBJECT: CANADA ON CUBA REF: STATE 18323 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) In a meeting with PolMinCouns on February 26, Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade Director General for Latin America and the Caribbean James M. Lambert expressed appreciation for reftel views on seeking meaningful political change in Cuba leading toward a democratic end. He commented how very closely Canada's goals tracked with our own, point by point. He underscored the importance of a "coherent" approach to Cuba by democratic nations, especially in the region, to "keep up pressure" on Cuba and to maintain a focus on the need for change. He cited Foreign Minister Bernier's public comment on February 19 that Canada hoped the leadership transition in Cuba would "open the way for the Cuban people to pursue a process of political and economic reform." ¶2. (C) Lambert called the numbers of political prisoners in Cuba "an outrage," but said that Canada had been mildly encouraged that, since Raul Castro had stepped in due to his brother's ill health, the total had declined from over 300 to about 210. He asserted that Canadian officials -- both visitors (including Deputy Foreign Minster Len Edwards in December 2007) and those at the Embassy -- advocated regularly and strongly for the release of all political prisoners as well as the promotion of political, civil, and human rights, and have refused to let the Cuban government dictate with whom they could meet. Canadian officials have made concerted efforts to reach out to civil society groups and leaders as well as academics, and have also promoted people to people exchanges, he noted. Lambert also described how six Canadian centers around Cuba enable ordinary Cuban citizens to use the Internet and seek information about the outside world unavailable elsewhere. Under an exchange program with Ottawa's Carleton University, Canadian professors are also teaching modern economic theory at Havana University to Cuban students in the hope that, when reform eventually happens, the future leaders will at least have a grounding in practical -- i.e. non-Communist -- economic theory, he added. ¶3. (C) Lambert and Central America and Caribbean Division Director Alexandre Leveque assessed Raul Castro as much more of a "delegator" and much less of a demagogue than his brother, and predicted that he would proceed with some "pragmatic steps" in the economic sphere, while ensuring that Cuba stayed within the confines of a one-party, Communist state. However, they also expressed doubt about any bold economic reforms such as Vietnam's "doi moi" on Raul Castro's watch, highlighting that he would likely be more focused on ensuring continuity than on promoting change. They also pointed to the choice of First Vice President as "scary," and as an indication that hard-liners will retain significant influence on policy-making, even if both Castro brothers died in the next few years. They nonetheless opined that Raul Castro would take some steps to improve the government's "efficiency" in the economic sphere and to meet more of the "economic expectations" of the Cuban people. Lambert commented that the ongoing discussion about economic change is probably one of the three most open and important in Cuba's history. He added that Raul Castro seemed little interested in any sort of world or regional leadership role, while necessarily maintaining positive relations with Qwhile necessarily maintaining positive relations with Venezuela due to its significant oil deliveries, worth about $2 billion each year. ¶4. (C) Canada's annual assistance to Cuba is at the modest level of $10 million -- about one-tenth of what it gives to Haiti -- but making Canada so far the largest source of ODA, as well as of direct investment and tourists, according to Lambert He claimed that this still gave Canada a "voice on economic issues," if not actual leverage. However, he pointed to a new Spanish initiative to provide Cuba with about $28 million in annual assistance, which will quickly dwarf Canada's program. Lambert added that Canadian investments in the mining sector had given Canadian companies the opportunity to demonstrate corporate social responsibility and to promote concepts of employee equity and labor rights as well. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS