MOMENTUM TOWARD SPRING ELECTION DECLINES FURTHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000257 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2013 TAGS: PGOV CA KV SUBJECT: MOMENTUM TOWARD SPRING ELECTION DECLINES FURTHER REF: A. OTTAWA 221 ¶B. OTTAWA 218 ¶C. OTTAWA 216 ¶D. OTTAWA 211 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The government will face four or possibly five confidence motions in the House of Commons in the coming weeks, beginning as early as February 28. However, it now appears increasingly likely that the Liberals will not swallow the bait of bringing down the government over Afghanistan, the budget, or the crime bill, and will instead acquiesce in the government's legislative agenda. This may have been the Conservatives' strategy all along, although the Conservatives do remain more eager and ready for spring elections than the Liberals. Concern over possible electoral reactions in Quebec has slowed the government's recognition of Kosovo's independence, given that the Conservatives still pin their hopes on picking up some additional seats there. In the current political environment, both the Conservatives and the Liberals always have the prospect of a federal election in their scopes, and will weigh carefully possible electoral pluses and minuses on each future confidence motion. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The House of Commons will resume its winter session on February 25, at which point the government will formally begin the debate on Afghanistan -- unless it decides to introduce a revised motion on Afghanistan that takes into consideration language from the conciliatory amendment that the Liberals have submitted (ref a). (The government would have to give 48 hour notice of its intention to introduce a new or revised motion.) The final vote on this motion -- not likely until the end of March -- will at the government's insistence be a confidence measure, but one the government seems increasingly likely to survive. Conventional wisdom agrees that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals want the Afghan vote as the trigger for a federal campaign, although one recent poll showed 60 pct of voters believe that this would be an "acceptable" issue to force a new election. ¶3. (C) On February 26, the government plans to introduce its budget motion, followed by at least four days of debate. The Bloc Quebecois will likely introduce a sub-amendment on February 28, followed by an amendment from the Liberals; each of these votes are by definition confidence motions, as will be the vote on the government's motion, which could happen as early as March 4 or 5. Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion nonetheless recently deflated speculation that the Liberals would seize the budget as the excuse to bring down the government by indicating a willingness to let the budget pass unless it was actually "harmful" to the people of Canada, a fairly extreme standard that few expect the final budget motion to meet. ¶4. (C) After the Conservatives pushed through a controversial motion in the Commons -- mandating that the comprehensive crime bill itself be a confidence vote and also demanding that the Senate finish its deliberations and pass the bill by March 1 or force the government to request the Governor General to call for new elections in the face of so-called Senate obstructionism -- the Senate's Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee has gone into overdrive. It is holding a lengthy series of hearings with more than 40 witnesses, including during the Senate break the week of February 18. Committee Chair Senator Joan Fraser told PolMinCouns on February 19 that there had been somewhat of a backlash in the Senate from the Commons' "demand" that the Qbacklash in the Senate from the Commons' "demand" that the Senate meet such an arbitrary deadline, especially over such complex legislation that encompasses five separate earlier bills. Both a Liberal draft motion and a private member draft motion, which face votes once the Senate resumes on February 26, politely "tell the Commons to mind its constitutional business," while a Conservative motion in the Senate promising the Senate would meet the March 1 deadline faces sure defeat, she predicted. However, she admitted that the Senate was in general loath to ignore the will of the Commons by stalling or killing legislation that had made it through the elected lower house. She indicated that the Committee and the Senate as a whole would make good faith efforts to review and pass the legislation quickly, although possibly not as soon as by March 1. She also noted that Justice Minister Rob Nicholson, when he appeared before the Committee, had warned that the government would not accept any "substantive" amendments, but she underscored that the testimony at the committee hearings might very well indicate problem areas that needed resolution. She admitted that the Commons was, however, not obliged to accept Senate amendments in whole or even in part, and that therefore the Senate might end up passing the bill as is, albeit likely with a request that it remain under Senate scrutiny once it goes into OTTAWA 00000257 002 OF 002 effect. The bottom line, she said, was that this bill was unlikely to be the trigger to bring down the Conservative government, either. ¶5. (C) Senator Fraser, the former Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Senate as well as former Senate Liberal Caucus chair, commented that Liberals were increasingly asking themselves why the Conservatives seemed so much to want a spring election, and, if so, why the Liberals would want to play into the hands of the Conservatives' strategy. She admitted dissatisfaction within the Liberal caucus over Dion's leadership, as well as considerable surprise about Dion's latest comments on the budget, and expressed a growing belief that the Conservatives would remain in power for the foreseeable future. ¶6. (C) Comment: Recent polls continue to indicate a lack of popular enthusiasm for a spring federal election, as well as the unlikelihood that either the Conservatives or the Liberals would benefit much. The Conservatives certainly still appear ready and willing to face an election over any of the upcoming motions, much more so than the Liberals. It increasingly appears that the Conservatives' true strategy may have been to force the Liberals into acquiescence over passage of key aspects of the Conservatives' legislative agenda. Prime Minister Harper has repeatedly said that the Conservatives prefer to govern, refusing to act like a typical minority government, indicating that, if they can make progress on their agenda, they intend to remain in office until the fixed election date in October 2009. The game of chicken is not yet over, however. One reason the government is delaying taking a formal position on Kosovo's independence is its concern over a possible electoral reaction in Quebec, a vote-rich province where the Conservatives believe they have a chance of picking up some additional seats in an eventual federal election. In the current political environment, both the Conservatives and the Liberals always have the prospect of a federal election in their scopes, and will weigh carefully possible electoral pluses and minuses on each future confidence motion. For now, Prime Minister Harper appears headed toward making history as the longest serving Conservative leader of a minority government. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS