CONSERVATIVE PARTY EAGER FOR ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000216 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL AF CA SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE PARTY EAGER FOR ELECTIONS REF: OTTAWA 211 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The Conservatives appear ready and eager for spring elections, although even they do not hope for more than a strengthened minority. They see the Liberals as deeply divided and heavily in debt, under a weak leader whose image will not appeal to voters. The Conservatives, while hoping the Liberals will bring them down if not on the budget vote in early March then on the Afghan vote in late March, nonetheless recognize that the Liberals may not play this game, possibly leaving the Conservatives in power until October 2009. END summary. ¶2. (C) Conservative Party of Canada National Campaign Director Doug Finley (husband of Minister of Citizenship and Immigration and MP Diane Finley),in a meeting with PolMinCouns on February 11, predicted that the government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper would fall on or about March 4 because the Liberals will not be able to let the government's budget pass for the third year in a row. He admitted that he had been agitating for an election for at least one year, and lamented that the Conservatives had not been able to force an election when their poll numbers were much higher in spring 2007. He added that the Conservatives had been surprised that the Liberals had acquiesced in so many government votes in the fall of 2007, but commented that the Liberal rank and file likely will not stand for such a continued passive stance any longer. ¶3. (C) According to Finley, the Conservatives are in excellent financial shape and have come up with an outstanding slate of candidates for the next elections, whenever they may be. He said that the Party could not yet make all of these names public, since many of the would-be candidates are currently serving in local, provincial, or territorial public office, including at the provincial Ministerial level. Although the Conservatives will lose about 9-10 sitting MPs who have chosen not to run again, he predicted that Conservative gains in the maritime provinces, rural areas of Ontario, and Vancouver -- as well as strong showings again in most of the western provinces, will enable the party to gain about 145 seats (up from the current 125) in the 308-seat House of Commons in the next election. He ruled out the possibility of winning a majority in another 
four party race (while noting that the Green Party may also win at least one seat in a new election),but said that PM Harper had already shown to the electorate that he could effectively govern in a minority government, and would likely remain in office at least two more years. He voiced doubt that the Liberals would even try to bring down a new government any time soon after the next election, mostly because they would be financially broke and would recognize that the public would not welcome yet another election. He claimed that not only were the national Liberal party and some of the provincial Liberal parties (especially in Quebec) in debt, but several individual Liberal leaders - including Stephane Dion -- remained in personal debt, stemming from the bitter December 2006 leadership race. He admitted that the Conservatives had actively worked to make sure that Dion would win that race, assessing that he would be the worst possible opposition leader among the candidates. He added that either Bob Rae (now a virtual shoe-in for his Qthat either Bob Rae (now a virtual shoe-in for his by-election) or Michael Ignatieff would be a much more worrisome Liberal leader from the Conservative perspective. ¶4. (C) Finley noted, however, that the Conservative goal of spring 2008 elections remained at the mercy of a seemingly divided and faltering Liberal Party. He admitted that Liberal hopes of winning at least three of the four March 17 federal by-elections could possibly push the Liberals into letting the budget bills pass after all, which would make the Afghan mission confidence vote (likely in late March) the next likely logical falling point. If the Liberals -- for whatever reason -- allowed that bill also to pass, he predicted that the current government would easily survive until the fixed election date of October 19, 2009. ¶5. (C) Finley underscored that, while the economy would be at the top of many voters' minds, the real issue would be the leadership qualities of Harper versus Dion, making the next Canadian election -- whenever -- much more "Presidential" and closer to U.S. election style than any previous Canadian election. While admitting that the "Conservative brand" had taken -- and will continue to take -- some damage from the Brian Mulroney inquiries, Harper's coherent and disciplined approach contrasted extremely favorably with Dion's public image. He dismissed media speculation that the environment OTTAWA 00000216 002 OF 002 or even Afghanistan would resonate much with the voters; they will be looking for a strong and trustworthy leader, he insisted. ¶6. (C) Comment: While the Conservatives may try to pull out all the stops to "force" the Liberals to bring the government down soon, the Liberals may decide not to play this GAME yet, at least until they can revive their fortunes and cohesion somewhat. But neither major party likely relishes the idea of running a campaign in the final months of the U.S. elections. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS