PM TO ADDRESS THE NATION TONIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001512

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: PM TO ADDRESS THE NATION TONIGHT

REF: A. OTTAWA 1507

B. OTTAWA 1511

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (U) Prime Minister Stephen Harper will address the
nation at 7 p.m. EST on December 3, with speculation
including a possible announcement of a new federal election
in late January, prorogation of Parliament until it returns
o/a January 26 to deal with the 2009 budget bill, or a
conciliatory address that would perhaps feature an appeal for
national unity in the face of an uncertain global economy and
possible new stimulus measures domestically. It appears that
he will not have had a chance to call on Governor General
Michaelle Jean before this address, however, and she
ultimately holds the theoretical power of decision over the
first two options (ref b).


2. (SBU) In another lively -- but slightly less heated --
Question Period in the House of Commons, Conservative MPs
sidestepped direct questions about whether they would seek
prorogation of Parliament and/or face a confidence vote on
December 8. The closest they came to indicating possible
intentions was when PM Harper declaimed that, if the Liberals
remained committed to a coalition with "the separatists,"
they should "take it to the Canadian people and get a mandate
for it -- or say that it was a mistake." Heritage Minister
James Moore insisted energetically that the Conservatives
would "never" accept a "separatist coalition."


3. (C) Comment: Prorogation is probably the easiest path
to pursue, but would change none of the fundamental tensions
and rivalries in the Commons -- only defer them. PM
Harper's repeated remarks about "taking it to the Canadian
people," however, may suggest that he intends instead to seek
the more dramatic step of a new election, despite the risks
to his own political future if the Conservatives fare badly.
This strategy also depends on the acquiescence of the
Governor General, who reportedly called Queen Elizabeth II on
December 2 to update her and possibly to seek advice. More
and more Canadians now appear to support such an election,
albeit with some reluctance and much irritation, especially
when faced with the alternative of a coalition under Stephane
Dion as Prime Minister, wholly dependent on the support of
the Bloc Quebecois. Harper's political instincts may delight
in the prospect of the Liberal Party having to recruit its
grassroots workers to go out and stump -- over the holidays,
no less -- yet again for a discredited party leader, who led
the Liberals so recently to a historically bad showing, as
well as to have to explain why a controversial coalition
would be good for the party -- or for Canada. PM Harper may
indeed see an election as a priceless strategic opportunity
to deliver a body blow to the Liberal Party, the
Conservatives' only real rival for domination of the future
political landscape.

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