CANADA IN KANDAHAR; MODEST PROGRESS, LITTLE PUBLIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001496

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOV AF CA
SUBJECT: CANADA IN KANDAHAR; MODEST PROGRESS, LITTLE PUBLIC
INTEREST

REF: A. OTTAWA 373

B. OTTAWA 1495

Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary and comment. The government's second
quarterly report on progress toward Canada's benchmarks
through 2011 in Afghanistan's Kandahar province claimed
slight gains on the capabilities of Afghan army battalions in
Kandahar, infrastructure projects, education and literary
training, and polio vaccination, while admitting that
assistance in Afghanistan remains a "dangerous and arduous
undertaking," especially in the face of "unprecedented levels
of insurgent violence." The almost total lack of interest by
the media or even in the House of Commons in this update
reflects the extent to which all political parties and the
public have put Afghanistan behind them as a salient issue,
following the March 2008 Parliamentary resolution extending
the mandate of the Canadian Forces in Kandahar through 2011
(ref a). The fortuitous timing of the report -- on the eve
of the government's controversial economic and fiscal
statement (ref b) -- may have further obscured interest, but
fundamentally Afghanistan is no longer under active policy
debate in Canada -- at least, perhaps, until the death total
of Canadian troops crosses the 100-person level, or if the
next U.S. Administration or NATO requests additional Canadian
troops or a further extension of their mandate. End summary
and comment.

Admitting setbacks
--------------


2. (SBU) New chair of Canada's Cabinet Committee on
Afghanistan (and concurrently new Minister of International
Trade) Stockwell Day on November 26 issued the Committee's
second report to Parliament on "Canada's engagement in
Afghanistan," covering June-September 2008. (Also on the
Committee in the second minority Conservative government of
Prime Minister Stephen Harper are Defence Minister Peter
MacKay, Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon, Public Safety
Minister Peter Van Loan, and International Cooperation
Minister Bev Oda.) The report admitted that "security
conditions in this quarter were worse than in the previous
quarter, and worse than a year ago," and described
"unprecedented levels of insurgent violence," "which were
"higher than in any year since the Taliban regime was
overthrown in 2001." It highlighted that the Canadian
commitment to Afghanistan was "difficult, costly and
dangerous" but that Canada is "not alone," working with "more
than 50 other countries" to "help advance the well-being of
Afghans" and "develop a country that does not again harbour a
terrorist menace to international peace and the security of
Canadians."


3. (SBU) The report cited the insurgent attack on Sarpoza
prison and escape of several hundred Taliban prisoners in
June as a notable setback, along with the "rising frequency
of roadside bombings, suicide attacks, and other violence" as
the insurgency demonstrated "improved tactical leadership"
and "complete or nearly complete freedom of movement" in
"extensive parts of some Kandahar districts." The report
underscored that the situation throughout Afghanistan remains
"immensely complicated, deeply rooted in Afghanistan's
complex history, and exacerbated by the turmoil of the
region."

On the good side
--------------


4. (SBU) The International Conference in Support of
Afghanistan in June highlighted the commitments of Canada and
67 other countries to provide additional funding, while the
Q67 other countries to provide additional funding, while the
G-8 (including Canada) separately reiterated common support
for Afghan-Pakistani cooperation, especially on border
issues.


5. (SBU) The report praised the Government of Afghanistan
for enactment of a new anti-corruption law and establishment
of an independent anti-corruption commission, along with the
replacement of ISAF by the Afghanistan National Security
Forces for the security Kabul, and its plans to increase the
size of the Afghan National Army to 122,000 solders over five
years.


6. (SBU) The U.S. deployment of 800 additional soldiers to
Kandahar, and expected "sizable additional U.S.
reinforcements" beginning in 2009 were welcome developments.
The report noted planned Canadian acquisitions of helicopters

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and unmanned aerial vehicles to Kandahar.

Six key priorities
--------------


7. (SBU) "Enable the Afghan National Security Forces in
Kandahar to sustain a more secure environment and promote law
and order"
-- No progress from baseline of one of five ANA kandaks
(army battalions) in Kandahar capable of conducting
near-autonomous security operations;
-- Regression from baseline of ANA provision of security in
one of six key districts, because the battalion "rotated into
a leave cycle," so Canada regained the lead for security;
-- No change in approval rating of 85 pct for the ANA in
four of six key districts;
-- No change that there remain no/no key districts where a
majority of Kandaharis perceive an improvement in security;
-- Progress that two police numbers (up from zero in June)
were able to conduct "basic law and order operations...with
occasional assistance from police mentors;"
-- No progress in building new permanent ANP substations;
-- Progress in providing initial corrections officer
training for eleven additional officers (up from 23);
-- Progress in providing pre-trial process training for
officials from four key districts;
-- No progress in building judicial infrastructure (i.e.
court facilities);
-- After the setback of the Sarpoza prison break, repairs
and new training are ongoing.


8. (SBU) "Strengthen Afghan institutional capacity to
deliver core services and promote economic growth, enhancing
the confidence of Kandaharis in their government"
-- Creation of 30 new jobs in connection with Canada's
signature Dahla Dam project (2011 goal is 10,000 seasonal
jobs);
-- Completion of a second school in Kandahar, with fourteen
others under construction (2011 goal is 50 schools);
-- No progress on teacher training, despite discussion in
Kabul with Ministry of Education and World Bank;
-- Literacy training for an additional 6,000 individuals
(total now 11,000, including 9,000 females);
-- Completion of over 60 infrastructure projects in key
districts, including roads, well, and culverts;
-- Slight regression in confidence in the provincial/loca
government, with 72 pct (vice 75) satisfied regarding efforts
to improve quality of life, 63 pct (vice 64) with provision
of education, and 34 pct (vice 39) with employment;
-- An additional 29 microfinance loans.


9. (SBU) "Provide humanitarian assistance for extremely
vulnerable people, including refugees, returnees, and
internally displaced persons"
-- Progress in that 350,000 children in Kahdahar have now
received polio vaccination (2011 target is to eradicate polio
nationwide);
-- Regression with 20 new nationwide cases of polio (versus
17 cases in 2007),eight of which were in Kandahar (versus
five in 2007);
-- Progress with 90 pct completion of a new obstetric
facility in Kandahar.


10. (SBU) "Enhance border security, with facilitation of
bilateral dialogue between Afghan and Pakistani authorities"
-- Regression with the suspension in July by Afghanistan of
Canadian-sponsored workshops with Pakistan on border
cooperation, although the two sides have now apparently
agreed to resume at a still-to-be-determined time;
-- Progress with the signature between Canada and
Afghanistan for funding of a new Afghan Peace Jirga
Secretariat;
-- Progress with the harmonization of working hours at
Afghan and Pakistani border posts, now open seven days a week.
QAfghan and Pakistani border posts, now open seven days a week.


11. (SBU) "Help advance Afghanistan's capacity for
democratic governance by contributing to effective,
accountable public institutions and electoral processes"
-- No progress toward goal of adding two million more voters
in time for the 2009 elections;
-- Delay in goal of establishing an electoral complaints
commission.


10. (SBU) "Facilitate Afghan-led efforts toward political
reconciliation"
-- Continued Canadian support for "nascent" efforts to
develop strategies.


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