CANADA IN KANDAHAR; MODEST PROGRESS, LITTLE PUBLIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001496 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOV AF CA SUBJECT: CANADA IN KANDAHAR; MODEST PROGRESS, LITTLE PUBLIC INTEREST REF: A. OTTAWA 373 ¶B. OTTAWA 1495 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. The government's second quarterly report on progress toward Canada's benchmarks through 2011 in Afghanistan's Kandahar province claimed slight gains on the capabilities of Afghan army battalions in Kandahar, infrastructure projects, education and literary training, and polio vaccination, while admitting that assistance in Afghanistan remains a "dangerous and arduous undertaking," especially in the face of "unprecedented levels of insurgent violence." The almost total lack of interest by the media or even in the House of Commons in this update reflects the extent to which all political parties and the public have put Afghanistan behind them as a salient issue, following the March 2008 Parliamentary resolution extending the mandate of the Canadian Forces in Kandahar through 2011 (ref a). The fortuitous timing of the report -- on the eve of the government's controversial economic and fiscal statement (ref b) -- may have further obscured interest, but fundamentally Afghanistan is no longer under active policy debate in Canada -- at least, perhaps, until the death total of Canadian troops crosses the 100-person level, or if the next U.S. Administration or NATO requests additional Canadian troops or a further extension of their mandate. End summary and comment. Admitting setbacks -------------- ¶2. (SBU) New chair of Canada's Cabinet Committee on Afghanistan (and concurrently new Minister of International Trade) Stockwell Day on November 26 issued the Committee's second report to Parliament on "Canada's engagement in Afghanistan," covering June-September 2008. (Also on the Committee in the second minority Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper are Defence Minister Peter MacKay, Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon, Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan, and International Cooperation Minister Bev Oda.) The report admitted that "security conditions in this quarter were worse than in the previous quarter, and worse than a year ago," and described "unprecedented levels of insurgent violence," "which were "higher than in any year since the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001." It highlighted that the Canadian commitment to Afghanistan was "difficult, costly and dangerous" but that Canada is "not alone," working with "more than 50 other countries" to "help advance the well-being of Afghans" and "develop a country that does not again harbour a terrorist menace to international peace and the security of Canadians." ¶3. (SBU) The report cited the insurgent attack on Sarpoza prison and escape of several hundred Taliban prisoners in June as a notable setback, along with the "rising frequency of roadside bombings, suicide attacks, and other violence" as the insurgency demonstrated "improved tactical leadership" and "complete or nearly complete freedom of movement" in "extensive parts of some Kandahar districts." The report underscored that the situation throughout Afghanistan remains "immensely complicated, deeply rooted in Afghanistan's complex history, and exacerbated by the turmoil of the region." On the good side -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The International Conference in Support of Afghanistan in June highlighted the commitments of Canada and 67 other countries to provide additional funding, while the Q67 other countries to provide additional funding, while the G-8 (including Canada) separately reiterated common support for Afghan-Pakistani cooperation, especially on border issues. ¶5. (SBU) The report praised the Government of Afghanistan for enactment of a new anti-corruption law and establishment of an independent anti-corruption commission, along with the replacement of ISAF by the Afghanistan National Security Forces for the security Kabul, and its plans to increase the size of the Afghan National Army to 122,000 solders over five years. ¶6. (SBU) The U.S. deployment of 800 additional soldiers to Kandahar, and expected "sizable additional U.S. reinforcements" beginning in 2009 were welcome developments. The report noted planned Canadian acquisitions of helicopters OTTAWA 00001496 002 OF 003 and unmanned aerial vehicles to Kandahar. Six key priorities -------------- ¶7. (SBU) "Enable the Afghan National Security Forces in Kandahar to sustain a more secure environment and promote law and order" -- No progress from baseline of one of five ANA kandaks (army battalions) in Kandahar capable of conducting near-autonomous security operations; -- Regression from baseline of ANA provision of security in one of six key districts, because the battalion "rotated into a leave cycle," so Canada regained the lead for security; -- No change in approval rating of 85 pct for the ANA in four of six key districts; -- No change that there remain no/no key districts where a majority of Kandaharis perceive an improvement in security; -- Progress that two police numbers (up from zero in June) were able to conduct "basic law and order operations...with occasional assistance from police mentors;" -- No progress in building new permanent ANP substations; -- Progress in providing initial corrections officer training for eleven additional officers (up from 23); -- Progress in providing pre-trial process training for officials from four key districts; -- No progress in building judicial infrastructure (i.e. court facilities); -- After the setback of the Sarpoza prison break, repairs and new training are ongoing. ¶8. (SBU) "Strengthen Afghan institutional capacity to deliver core services and promote economic growth, enhancing the confidence of Kandaharis in their government" -- Creation of 30 new jobs in connection with Canada's signature Dahla Dam project (2011 goal is 10,000 seasonal jobs); -- Completion of a second school in Kandahar, with fourteen others under construction (2011 goal is 50 schools); -- No progress on teacher training, despite discussion in Kabul with Ministry of Education and World Bank; -- Literacy training for an additional 6,000 individuals (total now 11,000, including 9,000 females); -- Completion of over 60 infrastructure projects in key districts, including roads, well, and culverts; -- Slight regression in confidence in the provincial/loca government, with 72 pct (vice 75) satisfied regarding efforts to improve quality of life, 63 pct (vice 64) with provision of education, and 34 pct (vice 39) with employment; -- An additional 29 microfinance loans. ¶9. (SBU) "Provide humanitarian assistance for extremely vulnerable people, including refugees, returnees, and internally displaced persons" -- Progress in that 350,000 children in Kahdahar have now received polio vaccination (2011 target is to eradicate polio nationwide); -- Regression with 20 new nationwide cases of polio (versus 17 cases in 2007),eight of which were in Kandahar (versus five in 2007); -- Progress with 90 pct completion of a new obstetric facility in Kandahar. ¶10. (SBU) "Enhance border security, with facilitation of bilateral dialogue between Afghan and Pakistani authorities" -- Regression with the suspension in July by Afghanistan of Canadian-sponsored workshops with Pakistan on border cooperation, although the two sides have now apparently agreed to resume at a still-to-be-determined time; -- Progress with the signature between Canada and Afghanistan for funding of a new Afghan Peace Jirga Secretariat; -- Progress with the harmonization of working hours at Afghan and Pakistani border posts, now open seven days a week. QAfghan and Pakistani border posts, now open seven days a week. ¶11. (SBU) "Help advance Afghanistan's capacity for democratic governance by contributing to effective, accountable public institutions and electoral processes" -- No progress toward goal of adding two million more voters in time for the 2009 elections; -- Delay in goal of establishing an electoral complaints commission. ¶10. (SBU) "Facilitate Afghan-led efforts toward political reconciliation" -- Continued Canadian support for "nascent" efforts to develop strategies. OTTAWA 00001496 003 OF 003 Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS