CANADA CONCERNED BY IRANIAN AND SYRIAN NUCLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001480 NOFORN SIPDIS ISN/RA FOR RNEPHEW AND JDANIEL AND IO/T FOR HVONBEHREN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2018 TAGS: PREL MNUC KNNP PARM IAEA TRGY IR SY CA SUBJECT: CANADA CONCERNED BY IRANIAN AND SYRIAN NUCLEAR NON-COMPLIANCE REF: STATE 123074 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) Canada found the November 19 IAEA report on the status of Iranian nuclear program to be "very bleak," according to Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) non-proliferation senior policy advisor Ryan Hewer. Hewer commented that the report clearly suggests a "considerably shortened" timeline for Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. He added that the report's "sobering" conclusions provide plenty of scope for like-minded countries, including Canada and the United States, at the Board of Governors' meeting to discuss additional measures to preclude that outcome. Hewer promised that Canada would deliver a "strong statement" on Iran, but was unwilling to share any specifics yet. He noted that DFAIT's long-serving non-proliferation division deputy director will draft the statement upon his return from the Nuclear Supplier Group's meeting. He predicted that Canada would likely be "well within the mainstream" of G-8 countries in the strength of its statement in condemning Iranian non-compliance. ¶2. (C/NF) Regarding Syria, Hewer termed the report "inconclusive" and said that Canada's view was that it still left room for "reasonable doubt" as to Syria's intentions. Overall, he said it is still "early days" to put Syria into the same category as Iran at the IAEA. However, Hewer stressed that the inconclusive nature of the report makes it all the more imperative that Syria cooperate with the IAEA to provide the information it needs to make a definitive determination. Nonetheless, Canada opposes Syria's request for the technical cooperation project, according to Hewer, but is still undecided whether to vote "no" or to abstain. In principle, Canada does not oppose a resolution on Syria, as outlined in reftel, but doubts the utility of it given the dynamics of the Non-Aligned Movement countries in the IAEA and the structure of the Board of Governors. Canada does not wish to hand Iran or Syria an "easy victory" by sponsoring a resolution that would surely fail to achieve consensus, which left Canada little inclined to step forward to sponsor such a resolution. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada WILKINS