OTTAWA HOSTS LIKE-MINDED COUNTRIES INFORMAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001424 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM EAID ZI CA SUBJECT: OTTAWA HOSTS LIKE-MINDED COUNTRIES INFORMAL MEETING ON ZIMBABWE ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Canada hosted an informal meeting of like-minded countries on Zimbabwe in Ottawa on October 30. Delegates agreed that MDC and ZANU-PF are in the midst of a power struggle to which there is no easy solution in sight. Several countries expressed concern at the Like-Minded Group,s limited ability to influence a resolution to the current stalemate. Participants acknowledged the limited range of options the international community has available and agreed that the best course of action is to be guided by what MDC is willing or able to achieve through the negotiations and to facilitate MDC,s effectiveness where possible. There was also consensus that conditions on the ground are deteriorating rapidly. The U.S. proposed development of a consensus on benchmarks and continued engagement with regional leaders, emphasizing the interests of the region in resolving the crisis. Broad agreement emerged that the international community would be in a position to provide additional calibrated assistance as soon as credible governmental partners emerge. Canada undertook to write a paper laying out short-term options for a diplomatic strategy and public diplomacy messaging based on the meeting,s outcome, as well as to debrief South Africa on the proceedings of the conference. Canada,s Ambassador in Harare promised to debrief both MDC and ZANU-PF leaders on the broad sense of the meeting. The Harare Fishmongers Group was tasked to continue operationalizing the principles for reengagement. Conferees agreed on the need more fully to engage the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in resolving the crisis and on the efficacy of broadening the negotiating structure to include the AU. End summary. Update on Situation -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Canadian Ambassador to Harare Barbara Richardson and UK Ambassador to Harare Andrew Pocock opened with overviews and discussion of recent political developments in Zimbabwe. Richardson urged conferees to judge whether and when to re-engage with Zimbabwe on the basis of democratic outcomes in the currently stalemated talks among MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and ZANU-PF and Robert Mugabe. MDC interlocutors have no faith in Thabo Mbeki as a mediator, according to both Pocock and Richardson. ZANU-PF and Mbeki view the deadlock as related to only one issue, control of Home Affairs, said Pocock. MDC, on the other hand, objects to ZANU,s unilateral actions including appointments of governors, ministerial designations, continuing intransigence, and ongoing violence by ZANU-PF supporters and militias, according to Pocock. All parties want a SADC Summit, he said, and Mugabe in particular is comfortable with such plenary meetings, given his past ease in dividing and conquering the SADC countries. Policy Issues and Responses -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The U.S. delegation briefed on the humanitarian situation and responded to the Chair,s request for discussion of policy responses and diplomatic activities. Currently over one million are in need of food assistance, but the situation is much more complex, as basic services in Zimbabwe collapse after years of mismanagement. There is currently an appeal in place by the WFP and the UN, and it is Qcurrently an appeal in place by the WFP and the UN, and it is critical that donor countries reconsider their pledges as the crisis deepens. In addition, access continues to be an issue that requires donor -- but particularly UN -- attention. Although the GOZ ban on NGO activities has been lifted, there continue to be instances of local government interference in the distribution of assistance based on need. Also, actions taken by the GOZ in the financial arena are having a negative impact on NGO abilities actually to deliver assistance. ¶4. (SBU) The U.S. head of delegation suggested that policy responses include supporting MDC,s position while providing strategic technical assistance to strengthen the MDC,s ability to engage ZANU-PF in negotiations. Such assistance could address deficiencies in messaging and communications. In response to the three scenarios presented in the Fishmongers, report, the U.S. suggested that the most likely would be weak reform initially. Ultimately, assistance would also be needed to build the capacity of the strategic governing structure of the office of the Prime Minister, parliament, and local government if a transitional governing OTTAWA 00001424 002 OF 003 arrangement is to yield results. The U.S. also urged continued engagement with regional leaders, emphasizing the interests of the region in resolving the crisis. While most delegations stressed the centrality of South Africa to resolving the current impasse, the U.S. pointed out the important role to be played by Tanzania and the potential of expanding the negotiating structure to provide for a more active role on the part of the AU. The U.S. also proposed development of a consensus on benchmarks; while it was clear that all delegations support the broad principles for reengagement, it would be equally important to agree on what constitutes success in a calibrated approach to re-engagement. Early opportunities include cessation of violence, appointing the PM and his deputies, submission and repeal of key legislation in parliament, and appointing a new governor of the RBZ. Change at the RBZ was among the economic steps that the Fishmongers' Group emphasized needed to come early. ¶5. (SBU) Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade Director General for Africa Janet Graham outlined Canada,s three-pronged approach: continued humanitarian support to avert crisis conditions; pushing for an African-led approach to solve the political stalemate; and, strong public condemnation of human rights abuses by the Mugabe government and ZANU-PF affiliated militias. Pocock again urged donors to support MDC as it sets the terms for negotiations, chief among them control of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe and the retirement or firing of the police commissioner. Donors Await Credible Government -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The discussion of re-engagement scenarios was chaired by Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) Director General Nadia Kostiuk, and began with a report prepared by the Harare Fishmongers' Group. African Development Bank (ADB) Senior Advisor Graham Stegmann said the ADB will continue its new emphasis on helping fragile states to reform and strengthen. It has no plans, however, to re-engage with Zimbabwe until a credible governmental partner emerges that reflects the will of the people of Zimbabwe. Stegmann noted that progress and reform in Zimbabwe will depend on credible people assuming important roles within a new government and pursuing a real reform agenda. He said Zimbabwe,s economic recovery challenges are compounded by a lack of understanding among all political leaders of the true damage that Zimbabwe,s economy has sustained. ¶7. (SBU) Stegmann commented that a recovery program must have the full buy-in of all parties to achieve real momentum. He noted that donors will likely look for early signs of credibility by the new government, including appointment of a respected figure as the head of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) and an early audit of the RBZ. The ADB can offer expertise in agriculture, water, sanitation, infrastructure, accountability operations, and lines of credit for exporters. Zimbabwe must repay its arrears to the ADB as a pre-condition for technical assistance and lines of credit, which is a non-negotiable pre-condition, according to Stegmann. The ADB has no funding to help forgive Zimbabwe,s arrears to the bank (although the delegation requested Qarrears to the bank (although the delegation requested contributions to the ADB,s Fragile States Facility, which could fund arrears clearance). Immediate flashpoints between donors and the new government are likely to be land reform, a timetable for lifting of sanctions, and investor protections. ¶8. (SBU) The World Bank,s Peter Nicholas said the Bank strongly endorsed the analysis of the ADB on the problems facing Zimbabwe as well as the rules for re-engagement in Zimbabwe by international financial institutions. Once a credible government partner exists, the World Bank stands ready to provide humanitarian assistance, analytical policy support, and programs to treat and combat HIV/AIDS, said Nicholas. The Bank is working on proposals to make available a $5 million fund for coping and survival mechanisms as well as a $10 million grant for maize seed purchase and distribution, tightly integrated with the FAO,s global program. ¶9. (SBU) Unlike the ADB, the World Bank has funding set aside to assist in the clearance of Zimbabwe,s arrears, but the OTTAWA 00001424 003 OF 003 new GOZ will need to become HIPC-eligible to gain access to the Bank,s special arrears clearance program. Nicholas highlighted that the Bank has gained important experience in several other countries in security sector reform, including disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration, and it stands ready to help implement those best practices in Zimbabwe. In an apparent plea against benchmarks for reengagement, UNDP,s Zimbabwe technical director Mark Simpson cautioned that Zimbabwe, like all fragile states in transition, can and will perform well and poorly simultaneously after it makes the transition to a post-Mugabe government. He said donors must manage their own expectations in this light and make their domestic constituencies understand the disjointed dynamic of reform. ¶10. (SBU) CIDA Acting Director General Louise Clement said the donors must align their goals with those of the new government when it comes. She emphasized the important role of Zimbabwean civil society in crafting benchmarks for the new government. Canada will remain cautious on re-engaging in Zimbabwe and will likely advocate that many of the Like-Minded Group,s benchmarks should be viewed as pre-conditions for further steps and deeper re-engagement with the new government. Canada recognizes the need for flexibility in managing the fluid nature of reform with a new government, said Clement, but Canada does want the group to agree on minimal standards for deeming benchmarks as having been met. She urged the conference to task the Fishmongers' Group with further work on benchmarks and minimum expectations for a new government. ¶11. (SBU) Sweden,s Ambassador to Zimbabwe Sten Rylander seconded the Canadian proposal to task the Fishmongers' Group on benchmarking and minimum standards. Sweden will step forward with short-term humanitarian relief but cautioned that it will be "quite strict" in requiring progress on benchmarks in return for long-term recovery assistance. Rylander also reiterated Sweden,s offer to host a donor conference at the appropriate time. He urged caution in pushing for early elections once a transitional government is in place. In Sweden,s estimation, early elections often do more harm than good. Germany,s representative Zimbabwe desk officer Kristina Jonek said the group should take a step-by-step approach ("we will deliver when you deliver") and agreed with France,s advocacy for a pragmatic approach to dealing with Zimbabwe. ¶12. (SBU) The UK will judge any new government by what it does, not by who it appoints, said Ambassador Pocock. He urged the group to consider ways to support the MDC, civil society, and the parliament as they stand up to Mugabe and ZANU-PF. The international community must engage African leaders and publics intensively and at every level to achieve a shared analysis of the situation in Zimbabwe and secure agreement on a common path forward, said Pocock. South Africa is the key player in applying outside pressure, said Pocock, and, unless it can be prodded to move from analysis to action, we have "no hope" of bringing about change in Zimbabwe. Pocock also urged the conference to begin planning for worst case scenarios to manage the consequences of failing to solve the crisis. Those consequences include: Qfailing to solve the crisis. Those consequences include: final middle class flight; final infrastructure collapse; potential internal conflict or civil war; and, large increases in displaced persons, both internally and regionally. ¶13. (SBU) Countries and organizations attending the October 30 Meeting included Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, African Development Bank, European Commission, UNDP, and the World Bank. ¶14. (U) AF/S has cleared this message. 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